What do you expect to see here?

[samr]

Opinions on this hand requested.

Party $10+1 SNG. Early, no reads.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP1 (t790)
MP2 (t770)
MP3 (t860)
CO (t840)
Button (t730)
Hero (t785)
BB (t800)
UTG (t815)
UTG+1 (t725)
UTG+2 (t885)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls t15, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t30</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Button calls t30, Hero calls t20, BB calls t15, UTG calls t15.

Flop: (t150) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero bets t50, BB pushes allin (t770), folds around, Hero calls.

What do you expect BB to flip up here?

Ax (not A5)

[therock]

diamonds

[adanthar]

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Party $10+1

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Two cards that may or may not have something to do with the board

[ThePost]

BB, early in the tournament, no desperation. I'm very concerned about him having trips with a better kicker here. But would be a very tough fold at the 10+1 level.

[Rasputin]

Ace-king or perhaps a suited 3-4

One ace, two diamonds, or a partridge in a pear tree.

[Nottom]

A flush draw.

[Freudian]

AJ

[Ixnert]

Flush draw or ace-bad kicker thinking he's driving out better.

[wildzer0]

I dunno, A5, flush draw, pocket aces? Fold preflop

[junkmail3]

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Party $10+1

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Two cards that may or may not have something to do with the board

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Awesome. But true.

[TWINUNO]

I expect to see diamonds alot of the time here. I know you have odds to call this but this is why i would have folded preflop, now your faced with a situation you dont want to be in. You should be happy here for him to double you up.

[junkmail3]

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I dunno, A5, flush draw, pocket aces? Fold preflop

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The question was not, "What would be the most dangerous hand villian could have"

Given that it's a 10+1 (like adanthar pointed out) I would put villian on AK/AQ/AJ, flush draw, sure.

He'll have A5 or AA about .000001% of the time.

As to the fold preflop. I think it's close.

[tigerite]

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Party $10+1

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Two cards that may or may not have something to do with the board

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[pooh74]

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I dunno, A5, flush draw, pocket aces? Fold preflop

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The question was not, "What would be the most dangerous hand villian could have"

Given that it's a 10+1 (like adanthar pointed out) I would put villian on AK/AQ/AJ, flush draw, sure.

He'll have A5 or AA about .000001% of the time.

As to the fold preflop. I think it's close.

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exactly...in fact, he has A5/AA never (why is he pushing out flush draws?)

Better 5 maybe 10% of the time, AX 50%, flush draw 30% and PP above 5 10-20%...

thats what I would estimate on the fly and could be dead wrong...given that, I call at this and higher buyins.

[Homer315]

I'd fold preflop, but from an EV standpoint, I think you pretty much have to call this. Call, and pray that the BB has two diamonds, and someone else also calls with two diamonds. You may lose this particular hand, but long-term, I think you have to call all the time.

Someone said they'd be worried about 5 with a better kicker. Do you think many folks play the case 5 that way? Could just as easily be a middle pair.

[wildzer0]

Well, yeah. I'm calling this every time at an 11. I just assumed OP wouldn't be posting this unless villian either had a ridiculously weak or ridiculously strong hand. I apologize if I didn't give him enough credit. I still fold preflop.

[CollinEstes]

I agree with Homer, if he flopped the set w/ a good kicker I wouldn't think that he would raise a 30 bet all in.

Also I don't think that he as AA, KK, QQ, or AK because with so many limpers I would think he would have bumped it up higher preflop to thin out the field.

I think there are alot of people who play the 10+1s on PP that push all in here on a diamond draw and actually want a call. My guess would be a high flush draw or and Ace with medium kicker. Either way I would call for sure.

[samr]

So we're agreed this is an easy call at the $10 level as Villain would rarely play AA/A5/x5 that way?

Villain flipped up AK, MHIG.

[CollinEstes]

Ak huh, that is kind of surprising because I think he would have tried to bump it up to 90 or 120 but maybe he thought it would concel his hand.

[tigerite]

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Ak huh, that is kind of surprising because I think he would have tried to bump it up to 90 or 120 but maybe he thought it would concel his hand.

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More like 'I have pretty AK and TPTK and I am scared sh!tless to play poker, I shove'

[psyduck]

this is an EXTREMELY easy call at the 10+1s. You should rarely be folding TPTK or anything higher in a 10+1 postflop.