Good bluff or just stupid?

[Ben Therre]

I was criticized for making this move too early in a MTT in another post where someone asked for hand historys. I thought it was brilliant and from my experience and other post that these are the kind of moves that need to be made to do well in MTT's. I had just completed this hand when I read the post requesting hand historys, so I thought it would be a good one to send. If this is poor judgement please let me know why instead of just being critical. I be the fumducker. Thanks

Party 30+3 800+ players first hand

Game No : 2494068263
***** Hand History for Game 2494068263 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:14629451 Level:1 Blinds (10/15) - Sunday, August 07, 15:10:24 EDT 2005
Table Multi-Table(418528) Table #69 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: jeremyi111 ( $1000 )
Seat 2: fumducker1 ( $1000 )
Seat 3: chefadamo ( $1000 )
Seat 4: tcksr ( $1000 )
Seat 5: sadielady222 ( $1000 )
Seat 6: sethty ( $1000 )
Seat 7: ManneK ( $1000 )
Seat 8: manton11 ( $1000 )
Seat 9: jsyzf ( $1000 )
Seat 10: Phil___ ( $1000 )
Trny:14629451 Level:1
Blinds (10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to fumducker1 [ 8s 3d ]
chefadamo folds.
tcksr folds.
sadielady222 raises [30].
sethty folds.
ManneK folds.
manton11 folds.
jsyzf folds.
Phil___ calls [30].
jeremyi111 calls [20].
fumducker1 calls [15].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7h, Tc, Jc ]
jeremyi111 checks.
fumducker1 checks.
sadielady222 checks.
Phil___ checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7s ]
jeremyi111 bets [15].
fumducker1 calls [15].
sadielady222 raises [225].
Phil___ folds.
jeremyi111 folds.
fumducker1 is all-In [955]
sadielady222 folds.
fumducker1 does not show cards.
fumducker1 wins 1330 chips

[illegit]

Stupid with a capital 'S'.

[Ben Therre]

[ QUOTE ]
If this is poor judgement please let me know why instead of just being critical.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Stupid with a capital 'S'

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok genius, care to explain

[illegit]

What needs explaining? You risked your tournament on the 1st hand with 8-high + gut shot facing strength for a small pot when blinds are still small. Risk = everything, reward = slightly better chip position but in round 1 of blinds the difference between having 1000 and 1300 to work with is practically negligible. There's absolutely no justification for such a terrible play. What possible reasoning could there possibly be? Good bluff? You clicked a button with no reads and prayed no one had anything.

[billyjex]

This play is horrible. I thought you posted it as a joke in the other thread.

This is a Party 30+3. One player is showing strength on the turn, and by betting big is more than likely going to feel committed. If the player has a 7, an overpair or 98 you just bluffed your whole stack to win 300 chips. Most of the time a J isn't folding, hell some players can't even fold a flush draw on a paired board (and just a draw has you crushed if it's higher than 8-high.)

Making crazy bluffs is not the way to win a medium size buy in Party tournament. HOw I do well in these tournaments is getting value out of my good hands -- people just don't fold enough.

[Tailgunner]

I'm reading sadielady222 with top pair or overcards, possibly a flush draw, trying to steal the pot on the turn after sensing weakness on the flop. As it's the first hand she's not gonna have any reads and will probably lean toward respecting your raise and protecting her stack... I like the play. (I'd have probably shown the hand and tried to get the table a little off the beam too... such an early lead leaves lots of room to hold tight or show down a couple more bad hands to reinforce your image.)

[locutus2002]

Certainly not brilliant.

Hero risks ~T950 to win ~t450 or ~2:1 so villain has to fold 2:1 to make this work for hero since he has no outs.

Will villain fold 2:1? Unclear, hero has no read as this is the 1st hand of the tournament.
Does hero have a good idea of what sort of hand villain is holding here? No.

[locutus2002]

Missed the gutshot draw.

Doesn't change anything. Still unclear and a bad play because no read or expectation for villain's behaviour.

[Ben Therre]

No dought in my mind Sadielady was bluffing. I saw the opportunity to steal back and I did. As for showing the cards....not to sure about that.

[illegit]

[ QUOTE ]
No dought in my mind Sadielady was bluffing. I saw the opportunity to steal back and I did. As for showing the cards....not to sure about that.

[/ QUOTE ]
LOL. On the first hand you've ever played against her in your life you're certain she's bluffing. LOL. Ok. And how certain were you the min-bettor was bluffing?

I'm still chuckling over the statement in the OP about 'moves like this have to be made to won tournaments' or whatever. Yes. Moving in on the first hand into a multi-way field on a paired baord with a gut shot is exactly what separates long term tournament winners from losers.

[Rduke55]

How do you know she was bluffing? It's the first hand!

Reminds me of people who call your overpair/set with a draw and hit. They then say "I put you on overcards". No, you didn't "put me" on anything. It's the 3rd hand I've been at the table. You "were hoping" I had overcards.

Constructively, I agree that the risk/reward here makes this play pretty shaky.

[Ben Therre]

[ QUOTE ]
And how certain were you the min-bettor was bluffing?


[/ QUOTE ]
They folded to sadielady, no one left but me and her.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm still chuckling over the statement in the OP about 'moves like this have to be made to won tournaments' or whatever. Yes. Moving in on the first hand into a multi-way field on a paired baord with a gut shot is exactly what separates long term tournament winners from losers.

[/ QUOTE ]
Moves like this when you know when to make them do seperate me from you.

[Pat Southern]

I think its pretty bad, you're risking 955 for 375 chips. This needs to work about 2/3 of the time to show a profit. And, considering the opponent is a complete unknown, you truly have no hint that she is bluffing other than your gut. Furthermore, she may be bad enough to not get away from AK because she feels committed and she has "10 outs." And if for some reason I did this on the first hand of the tournament, I would at least show it to build an image.

[billyjex]

Don't come on here to post a play in which everyone calls it stupid then ridicule people who disagree.

[Ben Therre]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you know she was bluffing? It's the first hand!


[/ QUOTE ]
My 15 years of experience told me she was bluffing. Kind of an overkill on the turn raise, no bet on the flop and I played it in a way where they could assume I was slow playing straight or the 7. Plus I still had an out. I wasn't playing to bluff, had a cheap draw for the gutshot and saw the opening for the steal and I took it.
Thanks and GL

[ldavidjm]

You know, blackjack players just "know" when they should hit, other people have a "feeling" that the wheel is bound to land on red...

Somehow they all end up losing in the long run. Goodluck!

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't come on here to post a play in which everyone calls it stupid then ridicule people who disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]

You dont get it, she folded!!! It was obviously the right play. I hope I'm the lucky guy who gets to stake him in the WSOP next year.

[Hal 2000]

Where did our hero finish in this tournament?

[Double Eagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Good bluff or just stupid?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take "Questions I Really Don't Want to Know the Answer To" for $200, Alex.

[reecelights]

You asked for constructive criticism, and while some of it was a bit mean-spirited and personal, you are sinking to that level yourself. The only response from others that you seem to be accepting is to the one that backed up your play. If you illicit criticism, you have to be able to read all of it with an open mind. The majority, and add mine to the list, are telling you it was a wild play based on the following factors:

1. It is the first hand, you have no reads.
2. It is the first hand. You have plenty of time to build your stack.
3. It is the first hand. If you get pegged as a LAG and keep making these plays you will get caught sooner, rather than later, and blow the few chips you have just won.
4. It is the first hand. You all have the same stack size. IF you already had a larger stack, reads on a tight medium-stacked player who you knew was capable of making a big lay-down -or- on a LAG you had a strong read on and were then sure he was bluffing, and had an image as a tight player yourself, THEN, this resteal might be considered a good play.
5. The fact that he/she folded is the only way you can justify your play. If "sadie" called and showed you a slow-played set of Tens, would you still insist it was a good play?
6. It is the first hand. Risking your entire stack on a gutshot draw on hand 1 is not generally accepted Multi-Table Strategy.

Your play was not, to quote the title of your OP "stupid" until you consider the circumstances of when you made this move, which was, in most opinions, ill advised.

[Ben Therre]

Thanks reecelights, well put. What I was looking for was the size of my reraise. I truely couldn't put sadie on anything but a bluff but I think a min reraise on my part would have been the correct play and at the same time produce her to fold.
Thanks again

EDIT: It took her less than a second to fold

[Brad F.]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks reecelights, well put. What I was looking for was the size of my reraise. I truely couldn't put sadie on anything but a bluff but I think a min reraise on my part would have been the correct play and at the same time produce her to fold.
Thanks again

EDIT: It took her less than a second to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you now admit that you just posted this hand to gloat supposed brilliance instead of for discussion?

[Ben Therre]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you now admit that you just posted this hand to gloat supposed brilliance instead of for discussion?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for popping my bubble. But at the same time when any player feels or knows that they can steal or resteal and fails to do so, then I believe there truly lies the mistake.
I've won my share of MTT's and will continue to do so. Thanks for the input and sorry I took some of it personnel.
GL

[tiger7210]

Absolutely horrible and reckless to risk all your chips here with maybe 4 outs if the loose fish that you know nothing about calls here with QJ/KQ/flush draw or some other crappy hand that they feel they can't fold with a chance to double up if they hit. If you are going to make this move at least you want to have a chance to make a hand if called and you do it for a pot that is worth making a move on.

[JC_Saves]

are you serious? this is just stupid since that is the what you asked.

if you can't see why, then it will make no sense to you to explain why.

[Ben Therre]

Okay okay....I get the picture. You all can stop kicking me in the ass now. I suck, I'm worthless and you all hope I'm sitting to your right in the next MTT you play. Except for Pat...he's sending me to the WSOP. By the way, congrats on your first MTT win.

[joeboe2001]

Sadielady is the one who deserves the criticism. If her hand was worth a $225TC raise after your weak call, it was worth calling your all in.

Can't blame you for taking advantage of her.

[joeboe2001]

1. It is the first hand, you have no reads.

YES, he has reads. He knows what the pool of players is
like at the beginning of MTTs, and knows there is a good
chance that, however risky, a play like this will rake
in a few hundred chips for him, which can be a
tremendous advantage, PROVIDING he doesn't continue this
LAG play.

2. It is the first hand. You have plenty of time to build your stack.

There is no time like the present. What would you pay
for a few hundred extra TCs at the beginning of an MTT?

3. It is the first hand. If you get pegged as a LAG and keep making these plays you will get caught sooner, rather than later, and blow the few chips you have just won.

If he gets pegged as a LAG early he can work it to his
advantage later--as long as he knows he's playing like
a LAG.

4. It is the first hand. You all have the same stack size. IF you already had a larger stack, reads on a tight medium-stacked player who you knew was capable of making a big lay-down -or- on a LAG you had a strong read on and were then sure he was bluffing, and had an image as a tight player yourself, THEN, this resteal might be considered a good play.

See number 1, above!

5. The fact that he/she folded is the only way you can justify your play. If "sadie" called and showed you a slow-played set of Tens, would you still insist it was a good play?

What is a good play if it is not one that has a
positive outcome?

6. It is the first hand. Risking your entire stack on a gutshot draw on hand 1 is not generally accepted Multi-Table Strategy.

Also see number 1, above. If people like the woman
who folded insist on contributing their funds to the
prize pools of MTTs they have no business playing in,
why should this NOT be "generally acceptable MTT
strategy?"

You are all reacting to this play like Menh the Magnificent did when he got busted by an Internet Player in the early goings of last year's WSOP. Ye who refuse to adapt...

Your play was not, to quote the title of your OP "stupid" until you consider the circumstances of when you made this move, which was, in most opinions, ill advised.

[illegit]

[ QUOTE ]

What is a good play if it is not one that has a
positive outcome?


[/ QUOTE ]
Try 'a play that expects to have a positive outcome if made many times'. i.e. not this one.

[joeboe2001]

Au contraire. A semi brilliant play, because he is taking advantage of the fact that villain has no read on him!!! The fact that she threw her 225TC in the pot made this worth the risk--she was a fool NOT to call, unless, of course, she didn't have cards to back up her raise.

[mts]

at first i thought you were joking but after some research my team tells me you are in fact, not joking.

[Brad F.]

[ QUOTE ]
Au contraire. A semi brilliant play, because he is taking advantage of the fact that villain has no read on him!!! The fact that she threw her 225TC in the pot made this worth the risk--she was a fool NOT to call, unless, of course, she didn't have cards to back up her raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Beautiful San Diego, ah yes. Which of course, in English means a whale's vagina."

Brad

[ziggydonks]

i think that this play itself isn't terrible, but the timimg is. If you did this on the bubble when you and villina had comparible stacks, i would love it. However, on the first hand, increasing your stack by 30% is at best minimally helpful to your chances of going deep in the tournament. When you balance out that minimal benefit with the large downside, this move is badly timed.

[locutus2002]

[ QUOTE ]
"Beautiful San Diego, ah yes. Which of course, in English means a whale's vagina."

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I live in San Diego.

[Brad F.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"Beautiful San Diego, ah yes. Which of course, in English means a whale's vagina."

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I live in San Diego.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok.

I was quoting the movie "Anchorman", attempting to use humor to show how confused a post was. I do really apologize if I offended San Diegoans in any way.

Brad

[Tailgunner]

I'm not staking your bid for the bracelet, as I would have folded this trash preflop to the raise, even from the BB... but that wasn't the point of this thread.

However, once involved, I do still like the play. Folks talk about no reads, about feelings, about "knowing"... well, I "put" her on a hand not by instinct, but by logic. She raised preflop from EP - that narrows down her likely starting hands. She did not bet the flop - TT-AA almost certainly would have (third of four to act, no less) instead of giving the flush and straight draws a free card. This narrows her likely hands even further, now most likely AT or AJ.

Ya say this play needs to work 2/3 of the time... in my experience, it does. The real danger was that she was a bit loose and was holding A7, and more often than not that isn't the case. Truthfully, it doesn't even need to work that often, as when it succeeds it provides more momentum to roll into the money, the net reward paying off more than the risk. Worst case I'm out 30 bucks after wasting a few minutes of my time, best case I have an early chip lead and plenty of options to create the image I want... in the long run that's +EV. That's why I often choose to show... with no previous read I'd love for you to think I'm a LAG and come after me, and it's a opportunity to try and induce some tilt /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Risking all to win a third may look like a bad call, but if poker was just a game of odds and mathematical percentages it'd be a real dull game played by computers. In the end, no matter how well you calculate the right play and factor in the psychological element, sometimes you just gotta lay your nuts on the chopping block.

He saw an opportunity and went for it, and I've got to give him credit for the guts to make what he thought was the right play when the math said otherwise... it's the kind of steel that is the essence of poker.

[Brad F.]

I will agree to disagree then. I never would make this play and I don't think it makes me a worse player. I pull it off later in a tourney, sure. But not here. Those extra chips are worth not a whole lot to me early on, not enough to risk my stack.

Brad