"How to Missapply a Good Idea," or "Wow, Good Job Applying That Idea"

[bluewilde]

Aight, probably a fold preflop, but I love hitting sets (sorry, just made like 42 guys cringe).

Anywho, the question is about my flop play. I try to be "wicked smaht," and think the play has some real value. If not, it's sooo stupid. So I just wanted some thoughts. PF raiser leads out. No reads on player, but this bet size looks a lot like a probe. No idea what hand is good enough to call this 1/2 pot bet with me still to act and a flush draw on the board. Apparently, UTG+2 has it though. So yeah, the bet, the call, both feel real weak. I don't think either has much. Between UTG's PF raise and UTG+1's call, I think they both have unpaired high cards. So I go for a squeeze play. UTG can't really call because UTG+1 already said he wasn't going away (this assume UTG has nothing). And then it's my read that UTG+1 has nothing and will fold to my all-in (he called twice, he just seems unsure of his hand). So yeah, thoughts? This is an $11, is that my first mistake?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 (t770)
MP3 (t742)
CO (t640)
Hero (t775)
SB (t550)
BB (t823)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t785)
UTG+2 (t840)
MP1 (t1275)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t50</font>, MP3 calls t50, CO calls t50, Hero calls t50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 folds.

Flop: (t215) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t150</font>, MP3 calls t150, CO folds, Hero is All-in (725), MP2 calls, MP3 folds.

Turn: (t1840) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t1840) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t1840

[Maulik]

This sure is a great way to accumulate chips if they have nothing and a lot of them. But you truely lose lots of FE in the $11s. This play is better suited for the $30s+.

I don't mind the squeeze play as the turn can give you nice redraws. So, I think its nice. good job.

You don't think anyone here could be holding top pair or an overpair? I don't think risking all your chips to make a tricky play is worth it at level 1. Your call was marginal pre-flop, and you should let this flop go without much of a fight. I'm guessing MP2 turns over AA-TT.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Aight, probably a fold preflop, but I love hitting sets (sorry, just made like 42 guys cringe).

Anywho, the question is about my flop play. I try to be "wicked smaht," and think the play has some real value. If not, it's sooo stupid. So I just wanted some thoughts. PF raiser leads out. No reads on player, but this bet size looks a lot like a probe. No idea what hand is good enough to call this 1/2 pot bet with me still to act and a flush draw on the board. Apparently, UTG+2 has it though. So yeah, the bet, the call, both feel real weak. I don't think either has much. Between UTG's PF raise and UTG+1's call, I think they both have unpaired high cards. So I go for a squeeze play. UTG can't really call because UTG+1 already said he wasn't going away (this assume UTG has nothing). And then it's my read that UTG+1 has nothing and will fold to my all-in (he called twice, he just seems unsure of his hand). So yeah, thoughts? This is an $11, is that my first mistake?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 (t770)
MP3 (t742)
CO (t640)
Hero (t775)
SB (t550)
BB (t823)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t785)
UTG+2 (t840)
MP1 (t1275)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t50</font>, MP3 calls t50, CO calls t50, Hero calls t50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 folds.

Flop: (t215) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t150</font>, MP3 calls t150, CO folds, Hero is All-in (725), MP2 calls, MP3 folds.

Turn: (t1840) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t1840) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t1840

[/ QUOTE ]

I play deeper stacks so keep this in mind.

I like the PF call bc it will be a mulitway pot and you are surely gonna get the action if you hit your set. The thing is, on party, with such shallow starting stacks, Im not sure IF you only play for set value whether calling these raises PF is worth it if you don't also play these medium pairs for value if the flop looks innocuous. Problem is here, you have a half pot bet and a call.

I kinda like this play...but only when it works.

What else can I say? People play their PPs for set value, but have a lot of trouble getting away when they dont hit...this is an example, but at least you played it agressively, saw a chance for a squeeze, and took it...but what did you think MP3 was just calling with on this flop? I would've folded 80% of the time, but like I said, at least you didnt continue on passively.

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an $11, is that my first mistake?


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if it's your first one, but it is indeed a mistake. /images/graemlins/grin.gif MP2 is unlikely to be aware he's being squeezed, and it's one of those plays where the victim really needs to be aware of the possibility for it to work.

At this level, you're really usually better off taking bets at face value. MP2 likes his hand. MP3 sort of likes his hand. You didn't hit your set, there's evidence you'll meet resistance if you try to take the pot, so cut bait and get out. You've got plenty of stack and plenty of time to find better situations.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 is unlikely to be aware he's being squeezed, and it's one of those plays where the victim really needs to be aware of the possibility for it to work.

[/ QUOTE ]



Isnt the above actually the opposite? If I am MP2, and I have a hand, I am more likely to call the all in when I am aware I am being squeezed. Its MP3 who is the scary villain here (not bc he happened to call the all-in but bc he called the flop bet)

[durron597]

Preflop: Fine
Flop: You have a bettor and a caller. One of them has a PP and probably better than yours. Pushing is FPS, just fold.

[XXXNoahXXX]

I think this basically goes to what a lot of pros say, "I play better against better opponents." You can do everything in your power to represent an overpair or set, and good players will fold, but if you're playing at the $11 STT there are people that won't lay down A6 here let alone a 9. You can make just as many moves against bad opponents as good, they just have to be different moves and this sort of strategy is best suited for players that won't think "I'm probably behind, but I can still suckout, so I'll call" or think they're somehow pot committed by calling the 150.

[fnord_too]

The pre flop call is fine IMO, but post flop is pretty sketchy. I would not expect people to be making big lay downs, and I especially would not expect two people who like their hands to both make big laydowns. There is just no reason to push your chips in here. Your folding equity is not that high, as the first caller gets 2:1 on the call, and people really don't like folding.

Assume the best, you are up agaisnt two opponents who can fold. Maybe not the best, but assume that means they have some basic hand reading skill. You just pushed on a board that is pretty damn uncordinated and has only low cards. What could you have?

An overpair? Maybe TT/JJ does not reraise pre flop here, but QQ-AA almost certainly does.

A draw maybe, so this is a big semi-bluff. Well, that means 45s or 78s, not realy likely but any made hand is ahead here.

Two pair? Not bloody likely you are playing 96, 93, or 36 for a raise.

A set? What are you afraid of here if that is the case? The unlikely two pair may be affraid of getting counterfeited by a bigger pocket pair (which means you may have to dodge up to 7 outs followed by 10 outs), but a set really only has to worry about a bigger set, which means 4 outs if both opponents have overpairs. If someone has 45 or 78 and catches a straight (and you don't get a redraw) that would suck, but a set should not be too worried about that here. So if you think you are representing a set there are some holes in the story you are telling with your bets.

Top pair/second pair? Maybe, but pushing those here is pretty silly, unless you are doing it purely as a bluff (classic case of only a better hand calling you. The only better hand that may fold is 88.)

A bluff? Ill advised because you are not really representing anything too strong.

You should get looked up a lot by thinking players here, and unthinking players are not folding if they have any semblance of a hand.

There are some spots where, even if you know the other player is weak, you just don't have the time or the chips to steal the pot from them. This is one of those times. A set would spring to life later in the hand, but later in the hand the pot will be too big to move any made hand. (The time bit refers to sometimes there just are not enough streets left to set up a convincing play, which is not the case here.)

To summerize, you made two mistakes in judgement IMO:

The biggest is mis-assessing your opponents. Without reads, it is very dangerous to assume your opponents will fold here.

Your bet does not really represent anything. If the opponents are capable of looking beyond their own hands and start thinking about what you have, they are going to probably come to the conclusion that you have top pair or are bluffing (unless they are incredibly weak tight and prone to seeing monsters under the bed).

[Unarmed]

I have no idea why you think there's anything even remotely suspicious about the flop bet. This is a pretty easy fold...

[Pokerscott]

This sequence reminds me of my favorite way of playing monsters QQ+ these days.

I make a standard 3x raise to begin with and then hope for a low / uncoordinated board. Assuming I hit the lowish board, I bet out 1/3 to 1/2 the pot. An amazing number of times some donkey reads this as a 'continuation bet' and comes blasting over the top all-in. Thank you very much lol.

This is at $109s, so I'm not saying MP2 has this hand at the $11s. It just reminded me of that play.

Pokerscott

[adanthar]

3/4 of a pot bet (not 1/2 mind you) is suspicious now why?

Fine PF, fold the flop.

[psyduck]

just fold on the flop at the $11s. seriously, this is FPS at its finest

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
MP2 is unlikely to be aware he's being squeezed, and it's one of those plays where the victim really needs to be aware of the possibility for it to work.

[/ QUOTE ]



Isnt the above actually the opposite? If I am MP2, and I have a hand, I am more likely to call the all in when I am aware I am being squeezed. Its MP3 who is the scary villain here (not bc he happened to call the all-in but bc he called the flop bet)


[/ QUOTE ]

It's more that MP2 won't think to be afraid of MP3 -- after all, he only called, right? For a squeeze play to work, the player being squeezed has to be aware that he should be afraid of the person yet to act after him. I don't think you can count on that in the $11s. MP2 likes his hand, and I don't think Hero's push is likely to shake him off of that, let alone MP3's call.