To value bet the river or not ?

[fuzzbox]

PP 2/4 NL 6-max
Hero CO (880) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif
Villain (410) SB

Preflop
1 limper to hero, who makes it 16, villain calls, limper calls

Flop (Pot 52)
9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif
checked to hero, who bets 50, villain calls, limper folds

Turn (Pot 152)
3/images/graemlins/spade.gif
check, hero bets 120, villain calls

River (pot 390)
3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
villain checks, hero ?

Villain has 220 left.

[Ghazban]

I usually check this behind. The only hands that you beat that might call are TT/JJ. With a read of villain as a calling station (or if I've got the image of somebody getting way out of line), I could find a bet here but I'm checking behind the majority of the time.

I like the check too, you wont get too much more out of him anyway, play it safe.

I actually think this is a very good spot for a value bet - I can't imagine what hand he could have that beats you here and in my experience a PP 5's - 10's will call here quite often - I have also been called by AK in this spot - if he has a hand that beats yours he played it very strangely

[djoyce003]

Any reads on this guy...is he tricky, etc? If he's tricky I might check behind here. If he shows calling station tendencies I really like a value bet of $100 and expect to get called by someone with 10 9 or 89 here. I think you are ahead here and can get another call on the river...he hasn't really done anything to make me think he's ahead of you.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually think this is a very good spot for a value bet - I can't imagine what hand he could have that beats you here and in my experience a PP 5's - 10's will call here quite often - I have also been called by AK in this spot - if he has a hand that beats yours he played it very strangely

[/ QUOTE ]

I think hero is good here as well but I can't think of many hands that get to the river this way and then call another bet that hero is beating. It looks like villain had a draw that never got there. I don't think the average player in this game will call down with the smaller pairs, either, unless hero has the image of a player who will bet with unimproved overcards the whole way.

[GrunchCan]

What about checking the turn? You can then either call any river bet or bet half the pot if checked to. Isn't this a standard WA/WB spot?

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't this a standard WA/WB spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not at all; villain could easily have a club draw or (less likely) a straight draw.

[GrunchCan]

Ah yes, didn't notice the 2-club flop.

[foldem]

Correct river value bets are the most important bet in NL holdem because you have 100% equity on the money going into the pot. I think this is an easy river value bet all in. No need to bet less because he is either going to call a bet or not regardless of bet size. There is no reason to think you are beat after he check calls the entire time.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
Correct river value bets are the most important bet in NL holdem because you have 100% equity on the money going into the pot. I think this is an easy river value bet all in. No need to bet less because he is either going to call a bet or not regardless of bet size. There is no reason to think you are beat after he check calls the entire time.

[/ QUOTE ]

What worse hand do you see calling?

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't this a standard WA/WB spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not at all; villain could easily have a club draw or (less likely) a straight draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, well in that case why do we want to make such a large turn bet? Wouldn't we rather bet about half the pot, rather than almost a PSB?

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't this a standard WA/WB spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not at all; villain could easily have a club draw or (less likely) a straight draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, well in that case why do we want to make such a large turn bet? Wouldn't we rather bet about half the pot, rather than almost a PSB?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's willing to call a PSB on a draw, why would we bet less?

[GrunchCan]

I see very little point in making a bet that only a better hand will call. I suppose it's slightly possible that the opponent has A9, but doesn't he have a busted draw the vast majority of the time? A busted draw surely won't call your river push, so what's the point?

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's willing to call a PSB on a draw, why would we bet less?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot control. If he called a PSB on the flop, I'd be concerned that he was smooth-calling with a flopped set. I'd still bet the turn, but why put so many chips out against what I think could be a draw?

[foldem]

[ QUOTE ]
What worse hand do you see calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

He may or may not have a hand that can call a river bet. At least by betting you give him the opportunity to make a bad call. After betting all in on the river the bot will be 610, he may well call with a hand like A9 /images/graemlins/club.gif because the pot is so big. There is also a chance that he was weakly calling down with TT/JJ or some other pocket pair.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the average player in this game will call down with the smaller pairs, either, unless hero has the image of a player who will bet with unimproved overcards the whole way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess my image may have something to do with the calls people will make against me but even eliminating the smaller pairs I think he has A9, TT, or JJ more often than a hand that beats me and I don't think he lays any of those hands down here to a river bet that would be ~half pot - if you read him as a tricky player or a good player I would check behind though

[ajmargarine]

I think I am value betting here. A missed draw is folding. If 9x, TT or JJ called you this far, they'll call the river. Hard to find a hand where you are beat.

[jonnyUCB]

cause if you bet large then he comes over the top large you know whats up. Not the case if you bet small.

[GrunchCan]

If Hero bets 1/2 pot on the turn and the opponent comes over the top, you are saying that the opponent has any two cards? Do we really see the opponent doing this with A9?

[foldem]

There are really three ways to play turns when in position.

1) value betting, the case where you have the near nuts

2) Pot control, you have a strong hand but can't stand a raise so you check behind planning to call a river bet or bet if checked to. You put your opponent on a hand that either has you crushed or is drawing to very few outs.

3) hand protection, you have a strong hand which may not be able to stand a raise but you bet nearly the pot. You are not sure what your opponent has but he can easily have a draw with 12 or more outs. You plan to check behind on the river if a scare card comes or value bet if checked to on a blank.

Clearly in this hand we need to be protecting with a potish sized bet on the turn any less and we will be giving 14 out draws decent implied odds.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I'm really not sure. In real life, I put it in here. I just think it's too unlikely for someone to check a better hand to me three times. And sure he'll fold his flush draw, if that's what he has, but I've seen too many people call off their stacks here with TT/JJ/T9 whatever to leave money behind when villain has just checked to me three times.

[fuzzbox]

The problem, as you all have gathered is that I couldnt put him on a hand that beat me. Therefore he must have a worse hand, and he *might* call.

I pushed, villain thought for ages and finally called with the monsterous

Q/images/graemlins/club.gif4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and MHIG