Rough Ride with the Ladies in a $215

[Jman28]

No reads on UTG. Played with UTG+1 a couple times.. haven't seen him do anything out of line. What range of hands do you put these fellas on? Shorties wanna ride wit' me?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t840)
Hero (t930)
SB (t1695)
BB (t960)
UTG (t975)
UTG+1 (t675)
UTG+2 (t720)
MP1 (t1255)
MP2 (t975)
MP3 (t975)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t125, UTG+1 Pushes (t675)</font>, <font color="#666666"> like 80 folds </font> , Hero...

[SammyKid11]

Well, UTG could have AA-99, AK, AKs-AJs (or he could be more of a donkey than I'm giving him credit for). UTG+1, especially knowing him to be pretty solid...you've gotta put him on no WORSE than JJ or AK. Tough fold, but probably a fold. If I had to take a wild guess, I'd bet you're out there against AK and KK.

[pearljam]

fold, not close.

[NYCNative]

You have a guy who raises rather large UTG (Danger!) and the guy right after him pushes (DANGER!) and even if you are calling, the UTG raiser can still join the party putting Queens in a multiway pot (DANGER!!!).

Silently curse the world and fold.

[microbet]

I don't really want to put either of them on AA.

AK or pockets lower than QQ seem real likely for UTG+1 and the extra big raise from UTG also looks like AK or JJ or TT or something.

I don't really like UTG+1 for KK either. Seems like with his stack he would be willing to chance some extra callers with it.

Two AKs would sure be sweet, and AK and JJ would be pretty sweet too.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
fold, not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, it certainly isnt this clearcut.. it IS close though, i honestly wouldnt be surprised to see 99 and AQ showdown. i fold though MOST times.. holla

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1, especially knowing him to be pretty solid...you've gotta put him on no WORSE than JJ or AK

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, pretty much (maybe TT). Thing is, I can't put him on much better than those hands either. I feel like he'd raise smaller with AA and maybe KK too to get more value.

His push seems like he wants people out.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]

Two AKs would sure be sweet, and AK and JJ would be pretty sweet too.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a sidenote, I got all in earlier today with KK v QQ v AKo v AKo.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Two AKs would sure be sweet, and AK and JJ would be pretty sweet too.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a sidenote, I got all in earlier today with KK v QQ v AKo v AKo.

[/ QUOTE ]

if TT came along it would have won no contest. holla

[ChipLeader]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't really like UTG+1 for KK either. Seems like with his stack he would be willing to chance some extra callers with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe thigns are different at the 215s but when do you want multiple callers on your KK?! I cant think of anyone who would prefer playing KK against many opponents.

Looks like KK, JJ, or AK to me, with lesser credit given for TT, 99, and AA.

In the $50s im used to, this is a tough play but i tend to call for the great odds in what will probably end up being about a coinflip. Tripling here sure looks good, and if OB folds theres only one, MAYBE two hands youre afraid of him showing.

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
Two AKs would sure be sweet, and AK and JJ would be pretty sweet too.

[/ QUOTE ]If those are the absolute BEST cases - and even if they showed you them face-up - do we make this call:

QQ is 57.4-67.2% to win vs AK &amp; AK depending on how they're suited.

QQ against JJ and AK is around 42% to win.

Okay, against two with AK I make the call but I don't like putting my tournament life at stake being an aggregate underdog. And all of this ASSUMES our BEST case scenario (with UTG calling). Worse than that we're a massive underdog.

Yes, UTG might say something like, "Gah, what have I done" and fold to the two pushes and you're in much better shape but that was a REALLY big raise and there's a LOT of money in the pot so he had to be a real moron to fold it in this case. Either way, we're both COUNTING on UTG to fold AND we're hoping that UTG+1 doesn't have us dominated.

This is all a lot to hope for. Too much to hope for, probably.

[Newt_Buggs]

I don't know what else to say other than fold. This is a situation that I need to get better at folding in as well.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
If those are the absolute BEST cases - and even if they showed you them face-up - do we make this call:

QQ is 57.4-67.2% to win vs AK &amp; AK depending on how they're suited.

QQ against JJ and AK is around 42% to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I am shown either of those cases, I insta-call.

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If those are the absolute BEST cases - and even if they showed you them face-up - do we make this call:

QQ is 57.4-67.2% to win vs AK &amp; AK depending on how they're suited.

QQ against JJ and AK is around 42% to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I am shown either of those cases, I insta-call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ditto, but UTG+1 is showing you AA/KK a lot of the time, and you know it.

[curtains]

I usually fold here.

[psyduck]

I'm not sure about the 215s, but at the $55s and lower, this is a clear push from any position following this action, right?

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1, especially knowing him to be pretty solid...you've gotta put him on no WORSE than JJ or AK

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, pretty much (maybe TT). Thing is, I can't put him on much better than those hands either. I feel like he'd raise smaller with AA and maybe KK too to get more value.

His push seems like he wants people out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but cmon, if hes any good, he understands that most people at the table arent huge morons. When someone has 650 chips and they reraise to like 350, then we know they have something. I would NEVER make any other raise in that spot with any hand that Im going to play, aside from moving allin.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If those are the absolute BEST cases - and even if they showed you them face-up - do we make this call:

QQ is 57.4-67.2% to win vs AK &amp; AK depending on how they're suited.

QQ against JJ and AK is around 42% to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I am shown either of those cases, I insta-call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ditto, but UTG+1 is showing you AA/KK a lot of the time, and you know it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I honestly think that he would raise smaller with AA, and probably with KK too.

[ChipLeader]

42% with 2:1 odds = instacall barring very rare exceptions which i cant think of right now.

However, your point is valid about how this is best case scenario. Still, with 2:1 odds you only have to be 33% to be even money and if you consider the advantage you have with such a bigstack i take it. The real problem comes from when theres an overpair-
As i said, in the 50s and lower im in a tough place to call or fold and will usually call since the likeliness of poorer quality is high, im nto famaliar enough with the 215s to know how often this is AA/KK

[microbet]

There are better case scenerios.

vs. JJ and TT you are 67.5% (not even terribly unlikely)
vs. JJ and JJ you are 96%

[ChipLeader]

[ QUOTE ]

Yeah but cmon, if hes any good, he understands that most people at the table arent huge morons. When someone has 650 chips and they reraise to like 350, then we know they have something. I would NEVER make any other raise in that spot with any hand that Im going to play, aside from moving allin.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree with this. At the $215 level i think people know better than to make a bet this fishy. Not that they wont, i just wouldnt count out AA/KK because they didnt bet big enough.

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
If I am shown either of those cases, I insta-call.

[/ QUOTE ]Would instacall in a two-way pot with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif against A/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif? I can see that you have more implied odds in the three-way case since you're wagering 1/3 of the pot instead of 1/2, plus there's the considerations that come from busting two players out instead of just one and attaining a huge stack but an underdog is still an underdog and I'd rather get my money in as an odds-on favorite to win or at worst a coin flip.

It's way early. And as said, this was the BEST we were hoping for.

[curtains]

I dont think so. Its too transparent.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]

It's way early. And as said, this was the BEST we were hoping for.


[/ QUOTE ]

IF UTG calls.

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
There are better case scenerios.

vs. JJ and TT you are 67.5% (not even terribly unlikely)
vs. JJ and JJ you are 96%

[/ QUOTE ]In a 215 people are making over 4BB raises UTG and being pushed by UTG+1 with such meager holdings? Sorry, but even in the donk-laden small levels I play at, I fold these Queens and only regret that I had them at such a bad time.

I would push if it were a freeroll, however. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
IF UTG calls.

[/ QUOTE ]We have been over all of the "ifs." A lot of "ifs" have to come together here to make a push make sense, more than I am comfortable with at this stage of the tournament.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Yeah but cmon, if hes any good, he understands that most people at the table arent huge morons. When someone has 650 chips and they reraise to like 350, then we know they have something. I would NEVER make any other raise in that spot with any hand that Im going to play, aside from moving allin.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree with this. At the $215 level i think people know better than to make a bet this fishy. Not that they wont, i just wouldnt count out AA/KK because they didnt bet big enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah of course there are some players here who would raise less with AA/KK, but I think its pretty stupid. Especially since you play with the same players often, and thus everytime you just move allin in such spots they know its much less likely that you have AA-KK.

Bascially if the guy moved allin for 900, then Id think its a bit less likely he has AA-KK (Although I almost always just move allin for 900 with AA-KK in that spot). However when he has just 650, theres no way Im thinking that its very unlikely he has AA-KK

[Jman28]

For all of the posters (I think mostly Curtains) who said that UTG+1 probably wouldn't be dumb/fishy enough to raise less than all-in with AA or KK, I say that I would.

I would be fishy and dumb enough to raise to say, t300 with my Rockets.

Why not? Even if it's transparent to most, you aren't giving anyone the odds to hit a set on you, and what if you push? What hands will call your push but not your fishy raise?

I dunno, I agree it's transparent, but there are PLENTY of people who can talk themselves into calling when they probably shouldn't (read: me)

[microbet]

There wouldn't be anything donkish, IMHO, about either of them having JJ here.

[curtains]

I dunno, Im really not a huge fan. I play with the same players too often. Once they know Im capable of raising less in a spot like that with AA-KK, then they know for sure that everytime in the future when I move allin, im a bit less likely to have these hands. This does mean something. I want to move allin in these spots and show down AA-KK quite often.

[ChipLeader]

[ QUOTE ]

Bascially if the guy moved allin for 900, then Id think its a bit less likely he has AA-KK (Although I almost always just move allin for 900 with AA-KK in that spot).

[/ QUOTE ]

I play online poker based on the assumption that i am better than my opponent. This is why i push AA/KK here (with 900) and rely on them betting small. As youve pointed out, with such a small stack hes probably pushing a wide range of hands from AA-99 lowest, + AK is possible. This is all the credit i give him, and the likeliness is based on reads.

It seems like this post has come down to two things- odds of him pushing AA/KK based ona read we dont have, and the goals of the tournament. One player doesnt like risking it all with a 44% chance even with the good pot odds because he feels doubling with high % to win is better than tripling with averahe % to win. Im not sure if theres a definitive answer to this thread but i dont think we can evaluate it any further.

[microbet]

Ok, I have to go to sleep. What did they have?

For the record, I lean towards a call, but I think it is very close. I think the pusher is short enough stacked that he will open up his pushing range a bit.

In a $22 or below I would call for sure, but in that case because they might think 77 is the nuts.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]

I dunno, Im really not a huge fan. I play with the same players too often. Once they know Im capable of raising less in a spot like that with AA-KK, then they know for sure that everytime in the future when I move allin, im a bit less likely to have these hands. This does mean something. I want to move allin in these spots and show down AA-KK quite often.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see your point. I guess I don't think all that much about the future when playing.

[Jman28]

At the request of Microbet, I give you the results.

I pushed. UTG called.

UTG+1 had JJ. UTG had AA. Q on the flop and I win.

[curtains]

Its not a bad strategy not to think about the future, although it's dangerous in the $215s with so many common opponents. I mean I literally would play in 10-15 sit and gos with the same people in a single day of playing only tourneys. Anyway it is very transparent and some peoplpe will play tighter due to the smaller raise, especially at the $215s. I mean when someone raises half their stack there after an UTG raise I am putting them on AA-KK and thats it. There are others who think like me as well I'm sure. I honestly might fold KK in that spot if 2nd to act made it like 350. I don't think it would be terrible at all to do so.

This combined with the future considerations mean I would just move allin.

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 had JJ. UTG had AA.

[/ QUOTE ]Nobody gave UTG credit for anything here, which was a surprise. I still think that a big UTG raise is a HUGE indicator of strength, especially at a 215.[ QUOTE ]
Q on the flop and I win.

[/ QUOTE ]nh, sir. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[microbet]

Thanks.

As far as UTG+1 goes: see JJ!
As far as UTG goes: oops.
But I forgot to add that I was sure you could hit a Q.

[sourbeaver]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If those are the absolute BEST cases - and even if they showed you them face-up - do we make this call:

QQ is 57.4-67.2% to win vs AK &amp; AK depending on how they're suited.

QQ against JJ and AK is around 42% to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I am shown either of those cases, I insta-call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ditto, but UTG+1 is showing you AA/KK a lot of the time, and you know it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I honestly think that he would raise smaller with AA, and probably with KK too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Making an action reraise, or minimum raise, on a previous raise simply screams AA or KK. In a tournament situation like this, I prefer pushing w my AA or KK and hope opponent reasons that I'm weak(er).

Sure enough, this depends on skill level.

[microbet]

In light of how obvious it is that a smaller raise by the shorter stack would scream AA, who makes that raise with trash?