$25 NL PF steal, is this really dumb?

[yellowjack]

My image is really tight as I've raised 3 pots in 4 orbits and taken it down preflop or on the flop/turn.

What I want to know is if you think I should be doing this every time with any two, because of the money in the pot and weakness shown by all players, or if I'm just throwing money away here. I am definitely betting the flop if someone calls me.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP3 ($25)
CO ($24.15)
Hero ($28.10)
SB ($5.65)
BB ($20.35)
UTG ($23.65)
UTG+1 ($22.75)
UTG+2 ($24)
MP1 ($73.15)
MP2 ($27.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $0.25. CO posts a blind of $0.35. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 (poster) checks, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.25</font>

[NYCNative]

I'll make that move when I am on the button or close to it and there are no limpers yet. I hate trying to steal the blinds at the small levels because a lot of limpers will call and a lot of times the blinds will defend and you find yourself with crappy holdings barring a miracle flop and you have no idea what your opponents have.

[yvesaint]

Full ring, $25 NL, I don't think it's worth the risk to try and pick up the blinds/limpers. I think you're definitely going to at least get one caller here.

[vulturesrow]

I like it. I think it is good position play. One thing I think that SSNL posters (and I include myself in this) dont do enough of is attack weak limpers. I think the reason is because it is so easy to make money by just playing solid values all the time but I think proper play of this sort has got to add a couple PTBB/100 to your winrate. This is something I am trying to do more of in my own game. So far Ive been happy with the results.

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
Full ring, $25 NL, I don't think it's worth the risk to try and pick up the blinds/limpers. I think you're definitely going to at least get one caller here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you do get one caller, a lot of time a standard continuation bet will take it down.

I generally do not try a steal when UTG limps; "book play" suggests limping from UTG sometimes with AK, usually with AQ and similar strong hands. Plus, an AA trap by a limping UTG is always something to think about. So, the problem with this steal is that you are likely far behind UTG if he calls you. Even at $25, you have to credit UTG limpers with something like a decent hand.

I wouldn't, as your poll required, call your steal a donk play, but I think you should have waited for a different opportunity.

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Full ring, $25 NL, I don't think it's worth the risk to try and pick up the blinds/limpers. I think you're definitely going to at least get one caller here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you do get one caller, a lot of time a standard continuation bet will take it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

What happens if there are 2 callers? 3? 4? I could see maybe a continuation bet against 2 players taking it down, but not more than that.

I also think that the times you take it down get outweighed by the times when the Villain(s) decides to call your continuation bet. Do you fire another barrel?

I think this sort of play works much better at 6-max. I play on 100 NL 6-max, and switch between very LAG and semi-TAG play. A pre-flop raise there and a continuation bet (especially with position, these moves work much better in LP) will take it down, but I don't think it is going to happen enough times at $25 NL full ring for it to work. ESPECIALLY if there are short stacks at the table.

[yellowjack]

Hero takes it down. $2.25 was risked to win $1.45. Out of the times I get called, I think a continuation bet will take it down 65% of the time. I'm not betting the turn/river.

Thanks for the feedback guys. I think I'm going to wait until higher limits as someone suggested before I try a play like this again. However, I really don't think UTG has any sort of hand because he didn't raise despite the extra blinds in.

[ajmargarine]

I don't like it in this situation. 4 people in the pot ahead of you is too many. And SB is shortstacked, so if he pushes you pretty much have to call.

I think these moves are OK. But just OK. Limit yourself to 2 limpers max and do it from CO or button. Maybe pick cards you wouldn't mind limping in with anyway like sc's, instead of any two. You always have to play it postflop like you have AA, and sometimes that means firing a second bullet. I would be surprised however if it adds more than 1BB/100 to your win rate at this level.

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
If you do get one caller, a lot of time a standard continuation bet will take it down.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree. I do this all the time when I think there's a good chance I'll only get one caller. However with two open limpers and the blinds left, I don't see that happening that often. Usually one person will defend their blinds, one of the limpers will decide "well, now I have pot odds (sic)" and call and the guy with the pocket threes will call almost any raise to see if he gets his set. Next thing I know, I have four people in a $12 pot and there's a good chance even if I do make a continuation that I will get a dreaded smoothcall or CR. No thanks.

[vulturesrow]

2 callers is worth a continuation bet. 3 or more, your done. In answer to your question about firing a second barrel, the answer is, sometimes. Obviously its situational. SSNL rewards by the book play. Your winrate will never reach its optimal level if you only do this. And if you are serious about moving up in stakes, you might as well start developing this skill now. I agree that is probably does work better at 6-max. But there are places where it is clearly applicable in full-ring as well.

[yellowjack]

[ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't, as your poll required, call your steal a donk play, but I think you should have waited for a different opportunity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hrmm alright, but only if you come up with a situation where this opportunity presents itself. I lack the imagination.

My point was that unless your ep players are completely without understanding of the game, it is best to credit them with decent hands when they limp. Decent = "I'm calling/raising that pretty obvious steal." I generally don't try a steal when UTG or UTG+1 is in. They seem to call more often than they fold, and then you have a whole new set of problems.

On the other hand, when one or two LP players have limped, a steal like the one you pulled here can pay off.

Even more fun is when you are on the button and CO is 1st in and brings it for a raise--if he's the sort to steal or make a positional raise, reraising CO often works (and virtually guarantees that the blinds will fold out unless they have a seriously legitimate hand that can stand cold calling a raise and a reraise).

Long answer, sorry. I just think these other plays have been more +EV for me than stealing when UTG and UTG+1 have limped.

[MTBlue]

Can you play on the flop? Will the hand hit a certain type of flop very hard? I steal all the time but you need a hand that will hit a certain type of flop very hard b/c you must be able to play the hand against a slowplayed overpair. J6 doesn't meet my steal requirements. I think the idea of stealing the limpers is a good one but you need a hand that can make a big hand 42s or 98o b/c some of the time you will have to play the hand after the flop. BTW calling a small all-in bet with random two getting 2:1 on your money is an excellent image play.

[NYCNative]

I agree with this logic, somewhat, although my requirements aren't that stringent. My minimum requirements for steals are Ax, Kx, Qxs, JTo, T9o and suited connectors or two-gappers from 45 up. Any worse than this and I probably don't ever. And of course there are legitimate hands that I raise with.

The low-end on the list above depends on reads - if the blinds are super LAGgy and heavly into defending their blinds I have to tighten up the requirements. I find that by having some standards that I don't steal so much that I am percieved as a bully which can lead to resistance that I don't need.

[SonOfWestwood]

I'll do this in the live games (NL100) I play if 1 or 2 weak/passive players have limped and I haven't played a pot for a while. If I get a caller pre-flop, I'm often able to take it down when I'm checked to on the flop. Because they're so weak and passive, I'm not too worried about check raises and I can get away from my hand if they bet out. And every now and then I luck in to some powerful hand like trips or 2 pair and can take down a good sized pot. It's been pretty successful for me.

But, in the NL25 I play online, I don't generally do this because I don't think NL25 online players pay much attention to how tight I am and that I haven't played a pot in a while.

I like this play a lot better with a small pair or suited connectors so that your steal can turn into gold on the flop - with a hand like J6o you are really just hoping no one calls preflop - even if you flop JJx you could easily be in trouble and get stacked by QJ, KJ, or JT.

[JobyWan]

I don't agree with taking even medium risks to steal blinds. As you said you were stealing, I'd disagree whole-heartedly with this move. It's not at tournament..why risk it? Here's why: You do this to change your image and hope opps get fed up and call right when your big hand does come around. You do this with medium suited connectors because you win two ways..you represent the ace that hits on the flop as the opps expect you raised with an ace, or you get lucky and hit something sneaky and stack him. Raising two limpers with J6o is only going to leave you with one option: blind aggression. Your continuation bet getting called even 1/3 of the time after your raise must certainly be -EV compared to the little pots you accumulate only until they catch on. Don't think they won't make notes about your play and bust you with next time you see them at the table.

The main reason this is a huge mistake, in my book, is that you only can ride a tight image so long. You've got one or two shots a having any bet respected before they start getting suspicious. Why not wait and use one of your free passes in a $20+ pot when you can represent the nuts as opposed to wasting it on a few limps when you don't really know where you stand.

JobyWan

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't agree with taking even medium risks to steal blinds. As you said you were stealing, I'd disagree whole-heartedly with this move. It's not at tournament..why risk it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not sure what the point of the question is since you answered it. Granted, there isnt much of a way to improve J6o but in some respects that makes it even better, as you arent going to get wedded to your hand if the flop hits it a little, as you might be tempted to do with suited connectors.

[ QUOTE ]
Your continuation bet getting called even 1/3 of the time after your raise must certainly be -EV compared to the little pots you accumulate only until they catch on.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is almost completely wrong. He only needs to win the pot 1/3 of the time with a standard half pot continuation bet just to break even. Anything more than that is gravy, plus its great for his image, as you correctly pointed out.

[ QUOTE ]
Don't think they won't make notes about your play and bust you with next time you see them at the table.


[/ QUOTE ]

Very few players at SSNL are making these sorts of observations. And it is pretty obvious to figure out who is smart enough to catch onto your play.

[ QUOTE ]
The main reason this is a huge mistake, in my book, is that you only can ride a tight image so long. You've got one or two shots a having any bet respected before they start getting suspicious. Why not wait and use one of your free passes in a $20+ pot when you can represent the nuts as opposed to wasting it on a few limps when you don't really know where you stand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or why not ride a loose image (which weak players notice more than a tight image) into a huge pot when no one believes you have the goods and you get two callers with all your money in the pot and triple up.

I think the point that a lot of people are missing is that when you make moves like this, you are controlling the action, and you are making people react to you. This is where you want to be when you are playing NL.

[srm80]

i generally dont like making plays like this at NL25, i would rather steal after the flop. most people don't really pay attention to your image, and limping isn't much different than calling a raise, they just want to see a flop with some sutied cards. they don't care about winrate, position, -+EV moves, and they really don't care about your image for more than the next few hands. At least this has been my experience. If you are a solid player, than I think it would be more profitable to get into flops with the small stakes players and simply outplay them after the flop, where you can make the most money. I am not completely against a pre-flop steal either, as long as it is done in moderation. I think what would have made this play more valuable is if you had shown down your hand after everyone folded, then used the advertising for a later hand.

[async]

It's not that you can't steal in that position... but with J6o? I think I might wait for a monster like 86s.

[fimbulwinter]

I'll give my two cents in general about stealing and let people derive what they will from it.

At the very beginning of a poker player's career, they can't even read the board. someone with top pair who is playing for the first time won't realize that the guy who's now betting big after that third club hit probably has a flush.

in this kind of game, the most rudimentary strategy wins. play better cards. make a hand that beats your opponent's range and bet big. push allin preflop with aces. almost no deviation from just knowing hand values and how to read a board is needed.

as our opponents become more and more consicous, we must move away from this easy play and do some sub-optimal things to get paid. stealing is one of them.

Just like all other deviations from a simple strategy, it should only be done when simple strategy not longer earns optimally. Metagame is just one facet that can be used when assessing if an FPS'y play is best, but in general such considerations are overemphasized.

Remember that your steal is just another form of a semibluff. you are raising with a hand that doesn't figure to be best but has outs (bluffing and real). That's why you will almost never catch me stealing with complete trash. i'll steal with offsuit connectors, i'll steal with sooted crap, but i won't steal with trash because i need those few flops where i can really push back hard as a subsidy.

remember that making plays should only be done when the standard play becomes a loser. In this case, mucking this hand is the winning play.

fim

[JobyWan]

[ QUOTE ]
The main reason this is a huge mistake, in my book, is that you only can ride a tight image so long. You've got one or two shots a having any bet respected before they start getting suspicious. Why not wait and use one of your free passes in a $20+ pot when you can represent the nuts as opposed to wasting it on a few limps when you don't really know where you stand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or why not ride a loose image (which weak players notice more than a tight image) into a huge pot when no one believes you have the goods and you get two callers with all your money in the pot and triple up.

I think the point that a lot of people are missing is that when you make moves like this, you are controlling the action, and you are making people react to you. This is where you want to be when you are playing NL.

[/ QUOTE ]

He can ride a tight or loose image, but he's already established a tight image - so why play marginal hands with an UTG and MP caller in order to make a big swing over to loose.

I certainly agree that making players react to you, and controlling the table is important. In general, that's excellent, but here, he's a guy who's played very few hands who's pushing a hand into the darkness. Raising for the sake of raising, with one of the worst starting hands in poker, into an UTG limper and 2 blinds yet to act just doesn't seem to have much upside. Unless he's doing this regularly to seem like a maniac, and he would actually be playing like a maniac and need to feel comfortable doing so...he seemed interested in stealing here..not a grand alteration of his table image.

I appreciate your correcting me with regards to the EV, but we'd also want to add re-raises from the blinds or UTG limping with someting big. With 2 limpers in, if one of the blinds calls, you more often than not get a cascade of 'pot odds' calls from the limpers and you're forced to throw away a hand to a bet on the flop, or bet after 3 checks into an obvious slow play scenario. Plus your continuation bet gets proportionally larger with 3 callers, thus you're bet is larger while your chances are success are that much smaller and this chips away at your above mentioned call ratio of 1/3 to achieve break even EV. Plus, any two non-raising cards that you choose to try and steal with offer you the same EV on paper with regards to needed call ratio, but you've also got to compare the EV of the possible cards used to steal with against each other. As mentioned by others, why not make the same move with suited connectors, small pocket pairs, etc, hands that have much greater chance of actually turning into something. I understand that crap hands are easier to get away from, but you have to hope that a player astute enough to post and read here would have the discipline to handle himself after the flop.

JobyWan