Fold with top 2 in the turn?

[sirio11]

From the UB $200, the tournament just started, I have QJc in LP

JBmoney99 is at seat 0 with 2935.
MSUsFinest is at seat 1 with 2485.
Icemann15 is at seat 2 with 2490.
FifthKing is at seat 3 with 2720.
Buzzilla is at seat 4 with 2500.
tako79 is at seat 5 with 2490.
-Not P- is at seat 6 with 1835.
deeshen is at seat 7 with 2810.
don k is at seat 8 with 2260.
sirio11 is at seat 9 with 2475.
The button is at seat 1.

Icemann15 posts the small blind of 5.
FifthKing posts the big blind of 10.


Flop (board: 7c Qd Js):


Icemann15 bets 60. FifthKing folds. -Not P- folds.
deeshen folds. don k folds. sirio11 raises to 225.
Icemann15 calls.

Turn (board: 7c Qd Js 8d):

Icemann15 checks. sirio11 bets 375. Icemann15 goes
all-in for 2255.

Your move?

[unglee]

I think given the way you played it you have to fold to his all in, unless you think the villian would make this move with Q8 or some weird gut shot.

Does anyone like a check behind on the turn this early in the tournament? That's probably how I would have played it, though that might be a weak line. On a non-scary river I'd probably call a reasonable bet.

[woodguy]

His lead and flat call on the flop is a little confusing.

It really looks like a set as if he has TP w/ gutshot I don't think he calls your flop raise, but probably raises it there.

Then on the turn there is two flush cards plus the straight cards, he wants to shut you out but get some value first since you're in the lead.

I think I fold, but early in any tourney is tough as donks can play KQ this way too.

If he has 9T, merry christmas to him.

Regards,
Woodguy

[CardSharpCook]

I'm sorry, but I'm calling this every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Especially this Sunday.

I can't think of a realistic hand that beats me here. I mean, come on, AI for more than double the pot? If he is searching for over-callers, he'll catch me every time when I have top two.

CSC

[mts]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't think of a realistic hand that beats me here

[/ QUOTE ]

ughh what? 77 is realistic, T9 is realistic. Isnt it more likely they dont know how to bet hands properly than it is they are bluffing?

[zambonidrivr]

pre-flop info? in an unraised pot, its hard to put anyone on anything. i think you are way behind here. multi-way action pots suck and should be avoided without a monster. 2 pair looks like crap with this board to me.

[Rduke55]

What was the PF action? With no raise I would guess a set (77) or 2 pair. I'd think the str8 is unlikely b/c who the hell bets the str8 like that, two to a suit or not? I'd probably call and swear a lot in this situation.
What happened?

[Double Eagle]

Hard to put him on T9/77 based upon the lead/call flop action. Looks a lot to me like he made his second pair or picked up the flush draw to go along with a random queen on the turn and is semi-bluffing. I grit my teeth and call....

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Hard to put him on T9/77 based upon the lead/call flop action. Looks a lot to me like he made his second pair or picked up the flush draw to go along with a random queen on the turn and is semi-bluffing

[/ QUOTE ]

I like that analysis a lot, way better than mine on this hand.

Although, if he has T9, he has an OESD on the flop and his lead may be to try to buy next card at his own price.

Regards,
Woodguy

[DemonDeac]

what happened preflop? i think that helps us weed out possible holdings of villain

[mts]

yah i think so too

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can't think of a realistic hand that beats me here

[/ QUOTE ]

ughh what? 77 is realistic, T9 is realistic. Isnt it more likely they dont know how to bet hands properly than it is they are bluffing?

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah... I guess that is the question... I don't know, I think people tend to misbluff more than misbet. I also have an easier time imagining a misplayed AA here than a misplayed set. Interesting question for study though.

CSC

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
picked up the flush draw to go along with a random queen on the turn and is semi-bluffing.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not possible because the queen is the Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Double Eagle]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
picked up the flush draw to go along with a random queen on the turn and is semi-bluffing.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not possible because the queen is the Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

details, details...

[allenciox]

Actually, I don't think he has 77 here... most people do not lead out with a set on the flop (particularly with a pot-size bet and no flush draw). T9 is certainly possible here, although a 2/3 pot bet would be more likely to indicate it than a full-size pot bet, also would he go all-in on the turn, or would he want to sucker you in for more money? He could have T9, but any of the following are possibilities as well:

1) pair plus flush draw
2) KK (slowplayed, but the pot-size bet on the flop to keep from losing the pot if he gives a free card which beats him)
3) smaller two pair (possibly the last card made his second pair).

I think I have to call here. Even if he does have the straight, you still have 4 outs on the river.

[allenciox]

whoops, I goofed, I see now there were actually more than just 3 players in. So now, the lead out on the flop looks very much like a straight draw trying to keep from being pushed out of the pot. T9 looks a lot more likely now. I guess I'd ahve to go with my read on how the player has played before.

[sirio11]

Sorry about not posting the action preflop, just copy and paste from UB, nobody raised preflop and 6 people saw the flop.

[sirio11]

[ QUOTE ]
1) pair plus flush draw


[/ QUOTE ]

There is no flush draw in the flop

[ QUOTE ]
2) KK (slowplayed, but the pot-size bet on the flop to keep from losing the pot if he gives a free card which beats him)


[/ QUOTE ]

Not likely, he was in the SB, and after 4 people limping he is not checking prefolp.

[ QUOTE ]
3) smaller two pair (possibly the last card made his second pair).

[/ QUOTE ]

not likely 2 pair in the flop, it is a weird way to play them, go for the check raise in the turn, but Q8 sounds like a possibility.

[sirio11]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'd ahve to go with my read on how the player has played before.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is like the 3rd hand of the tournament.

[sirio11]

When he went all in in the turn, these are the hands I thought he could possibly have

77
T9
KTd
KT
J7d
Q8
QJ

what happened in the hand, while I was thinking about all his possibly holdings, I decided I was in the "what the hell" mode (after too many big laydowns this weekend) and was going to call, but in the exact moment I push the call button, my time bank expired and my hand was folded !!
I would like to see actual numbers in the countdown of the time banks like Stars or Party, and no colors or ambiguous warnings like UB, Bodog and Pokerroom and paradise.

[sirio11]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, but I'm calling this every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Especially this Sunday.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not me, and especially not on Sunday at the beginning of the $200 Ultimate Bet

[dimastermind]

Depending on which limper he is, especially first or 2nd limper, I wouldn't be surprised if he misplayed his AA-KK. I call and swear like the other guy said.

[woodguy]

You don't see KQ as a possible hand here?

Regards,
Woodguy

[sirio11]

[ QUOTE ]
Icemann15 posts the small blind of 5.
FifthKing posts the big blind of 10.



[/ QUOTE ]

[locutus2002]

Hero calls.

Hero is getting ~1.7:1 to call the rest of his chips.

From villain's point of view the 8 on the turn is unlikely to have helped hero's hand given the preflop betting, and appears as a scare card. After hero bets the turn, I think villain can expect to take the pot with a wide range of holdings that beat TPTK, or strong drawing hands, neither of which really want to see another card or figure out who's ahead after the river (thus a push/overbet).

In general I think most players get too nervous at the turn to slow play a set or st8 with such a dangerous board, so I think its unlikely for villain to c/r the nuts (especially this early).

I think hero is ahead.

[sirio11]

No, unless he's a very bad agressive player, since I have no reads, I'm assuming he's the average good $200 UB player.

[allenciox]

I am talking about the raise all-in on the turn here. Agree that the KK is unlikely. But as for the other two, I could see it if he had a pair on the flop, and then the turn card either

1) gave him two pair
or
2) gave him a flush draw to go with his pair on the flop.

The scenario is this:

He bets the flop because he's paired. When he is raised, he calls the raise, even though he knows he may be behind. When the turn card comes and helps his hand, he decides to go with it.

[autobet]

The overbet looks like a semi bluff or two pair...J9 of diamonds...