I lose consistantly, but I dont know why

[GrunchCan]

So, I've played 2000 hands at the PP .10/.25 since I've been active in this forum. In that time I'm down 4 buyins. I have had only 2 sessions where I finished up. All the others have been either slightly down or signifigantly down. I've played a lot of poker over the last 3 years. I've never had such consistantly down results. I has felt like I've been on an incredible string of bad luck. But I mean, cmon. It aint luck. It must be bad play, right?

Here's 2 hands where I got stacked. Different tables, different opponents. What did I do wrong?

Hand 1
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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

SB ($29.79)
BB ($19.80)
UTG ($27.73)
UTG+1 ($23.50)
MP1 ($50.05)
MP2 ($27.95)
Hero ($26.85)
CO ($50.49)
Button ($30.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.75</font>, CO calls $0.75, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50.

Flop: ($3) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, CO folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $6</font>, Hero calls $3.

Turn: ($15) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $5</font>, Hero calls $5.

River: ($25) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $5</font>, Hero calls $5.

Final Pot: $35


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Hand 2
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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

SB ($24.90)
Hero ($24.65)
UTG ($23.43)
UTG+1 ($25)
MP1 ($21.15)
MP2 ($59.43)
MP3 ($26.45)
CO ($6.40)
Button ($30.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.75, UTG calls $0.75, MP1 calls $0.75.

Flop: ($4.10) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $3.9</font>, MP1 folds, Button calls $3.90, Hero calls $3.90.

Turn: ($15.80) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero calls $19.75 (All-In), UTG folds, Button calls $19.75.

River: ($55.30) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $55.30


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What did I do wrong? I don't mind saying that I'm feeling pretty lost here.

[Mercman572]

hand 1 I fold the turn, check m/r followed by a lead means a made hand most of the time

hand 2 I fold preflop without reads being OOP, but post flop you played it fine

[TheWorstPlayer]

Hand 2: Nothing you can do. Hand 1: Just brutal. Fold the flop to his check/raise. You're drawing dead or near dead.

[btetreau]

i think that in the first hand, you need to raise it more preflop, 3xBB is not nearly enough with AA at a NL25 table. I'd make it at least $1, maybe a little more.... There are 4 people to the flop and you get check-minraised on a 3-flush flop. That is scary, and without a solid reason or read I would not call the reraise. Maybe that is weak, but I think it is safer. Especially when you are trying to not lose money, it is ok to fold while you might be ahead and lose a little. I don't know if you have this same problem, but for a long time I gave way too much credit to holding AA and would overplay it waaay too much. 'It's only the nuts before the flop' is what I tell myself every time I get dealt it, and it works.

In the second hand, I think that you need to either bet at this flop first or if you are going to check, you need to checkraise to ~$8 to find out where you are. If that gets called or pushed, then barring a read/reason I ---- now that I think about it I think I would fold, but in the heat of the moment I might call. I don't know, I can't tell if I'm being results-oriented right now or not. Hmmm....

Anyway, the only other thing I could think of would be to not call a raise out of position with JT - but maybe that is too tight.

Speaking of which, if you're having trouble not losing money, you should certainly tighten up a bunch, not play hands like JT or KJ, and always consider position. Sure, nut-peddling is less positive EV than optimal poker, but at least it is positive. Get to that point and then start pushing the edges. Good luck.

[BZ_Zorro]

Respect the 3-flush. Even the dumbest opponents get scared with 3 of a suit staring at them, so if there's action give it the benefit of the doubt. Sometimes you'll fold the best hand but it's not worth the pain at $25NL - leave the tough decisions to your opponents.

[Malachii]

Hey Grunch,

A few thoughts for you:

1.) I wouldn't go so far as to say that NL is harder to master than limit, but it's MUCH harder to become a consistent winning player at than limit. I know that you're a winning limit player, but NL takes time. Be patient and analyze your sessions.

2.) Your sample size is very small, so try to avoid drawing too many unsupported conclusions from it as to the quality of your play.

3.) With enough persistence, success is inevitable. You merely need the burning desire to succeed. Read Think and Grow Rich (I highly reccomend that to anyone and everyone) by Napolean Hill for more about this...


Now, as to your hands.

Hand 1.) Red aces on an all spade flop is not a particularly big hand. I think you have to fold to that checkraise. Only thing you're beating is AK with the A of clubs, and that ain't much. Everything else you're coinflipping with or crushed by.

Hand 2.) I'm not crazy about playing jack ten suited in a raised pot. It's easily dominated, it's hard to draw out of position played passively, and it's hard to play it aggressively at 25$ NL because everyone thinks top pair is the nuts, so you have little fold equity.

I'd checkraise all in on this flop. If someone has a higher flush, you lose your stack, simple as that.

I admire the courage it took to make this post. Just have heart, stick with it, and things will hopefully turn around for you sooner rather than later... but they'll turn around eventually either way.

Sam

[GrunchCan]

This may not have been clear, but on hand 2 I open-pushed the turn. My plan was to push any non-/images/graemlins/heart.gif turn, and check-fold if a /images/graemlins/heart.gif did come on the turn.

Given this, does everyone still think my postflop play on Hand 2 is OK?

[djoyce003]

hand 1 - with that many people seeing the flop, I don't mind folding there....someone has the flush almost every time. Raise more preflop btw

Hand 2 - if he has a flush that beats me, then he's getting my money here.

[Python49]

hand 1: raise more pre flop, fold to either the c/r on flop or the lead ont urn

hand 2: fold pre flop

[GrunchCan]

Thanks to everyone who's repied so far. I wanted to address some ecclectic things from different respondants, so I replied to myself...

First, low-hanging fruit:
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hand 1: raise more pre flop

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I was mixing it up a little. This was probably a mistake to a degree, because it gives away the strength of my hand. I always -- every single time -- raise 4xBB + 1BB per limper ahead of me. This was literally the first time in 2,000 hands that I didn't. I always think it's pretty lame when someone says something like what I just said, so I self-meh.

Next,there was much advice on hand 2 that said:
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Hand 2: fold preflop

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Now, I'm not afraid of variance at all. In fact, I like getting bad-beated (in limit, anyway/images/graemlins/smirk.gif) becasue I know its Sklansky bucks for me.

In no-limit, in which I'm trying to get my opponents' whole stack, it seems to me that I need to come in with big multiway hands much more than I would in limit. I'm thinking that if I flop good, it's more likely that I'll get action from someone who rasied PF than someone who just limped. I mean, Hand 1 is the dream scenario for the opponent who had Q:spadeJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif, right? Those are the hands I'm trying to get, that's why I come in to pots in scenarios like this.

Now, what should I be thinking here?

Someone said something about domination with my JTs hand, and suggested that's one reason why I should fold PF. But this must assume that I'm playing JTs for it's top-pair strength. I'm not. I'm especially not playing for top-pair strength in a multiway pot. I mean, if the flop comes J-high rainbow and I have 3 opponents, I'm probably long gone. That's definitely not the flop I was looking for.

Ok, now here's a big thing that I think I struggle with. I saw a lot of advice along the lines of:

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Fold the flop to his check/raise.

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But I was getting 4:1! How can I fold an overpair of aces to a check-minraise? Now, I'm being a little devil's-advocate here, becasue I understand that the check-minrasie is a big neon sign. I knew at the time exactly what the opponent was representing. But even still I think to myself that there is surely a 21% chance that the opponent was either full of it and this was a post-oak bluff, or he had a King he thought was best, or he had the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

That's what I was thinking. What should I be thinking?

[GrunchCan]

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2.) Your sample size is very small, so try to avoid drawing too many unsupported conclusions from it as to the quality of your play.

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Yes, I know. I hesitated making this post becasue I do have such a small sample. For several days I hesitated, actually. But I'm not a poker rookie, either (I'm not saying this to be argumentative - stick with me). I've played a hell of a lot of poker in the last few years. I can usually tell when my results were bad becasue of variance or due to faulty play. This doesn't feel like variance to me. It feels like bad play. I (definitely) don't know what I'm doing wrong. But I know I'm doing things wrong. You know what I mean? Do all experienced poker players have this kind of 'sense'?

On the first hand, you're right that your getting 4:1, but you have to consider that 4:1 isn't much if you have a 5% of winning the hand. Though, I agree with you, there's enough of a chance that he has A-K or a spade draw to call the small bet and see what the turn brings. But when he leds the turn, you have to fold. Whenever I have aces or kings, I always think to myself: "Don't go crazy here. Don't do anything stupid. I don't want to lose my stack with aces." And with three to a flush and an OOP player (the BB no less) showing lots of strength, you're in a bad spot and should save yourself some money.

On the second hand, I agree with everyone else that you should fold preflop to a decent raise. I would call with a small pair there, but the problem with suited connnectors is that you have to flop a made hand to make them worthwhile. Like one poster said, even if you hit a flush draw or straight draw, you're OOP and it's going to cost you a lot to draw. I'm a long time successful limit player too (almost two years), and I've been playing NL for about 4 months now. The biggest difference for me is getting used to the idea that draws don't mean that much in NL, while in limit they are often your biggest winners. I know, I know, but implied odds...Yeah, I'm not really convinced. If you hit two to the flush on the flop, your opponent, who has position on you, is probably going to bet the flop real hard. You then call (probably wrongly). Then say you hit your flush on the turn. The other guy is thinking, oh no that bastard just hit his flush. I don't know how many times I've chased a flush because of the implied odds only to get nothing out of it after it hit. I hate suited connectors, you have to hit a flush and straight draw for them to be profitable, and that doesn't happen that often. Or you have to flop two pair, which is still a vulnerable hand. And if you're playing them for two pair value, you might as well be playing any two cards for two pair value.

Overall, I think when playing NL, you're first priority should be not to lose a lot in any hand. Like one poster said, maybe you have a slight advantage in this hand and you win a decent pot. But what if you are way behind and lose a big pot. I think a lot of times it's +EV to let go of some of the hands that you think you might be ahead with, because in the long run you don't know for sure and those marginal situations are going to end up getting you in some big trouble so just stay away from them. When ever I'm in a hand, I always think to myself, am I going to regret making this call and losing? If I'm going to look back after the hand and think, man I shouldn't have done that, then I just fold and am done with it.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
But I was getting 4:1! How can I fold an overpair of aces to a check-minraise? Now, I'm being a little devil's-advocate here, becasue I understand that the check-minrasie is a big neon sign. I knew at the time exactly what the opponent was representing. But even still I think to myself that there is surely a 21% chance that the opponent was either full of it and this was a post-oak bluff, or he had a King he thought was best, or he had the A.

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The problem is, you don't get to flip over the hands right now and see who wins. If the flop call was all-in at 4:1, then sure, its an easy call. In this hand, however, you are going to face more action at each street, and your hand is going to get worse on each street. If you are ahead, it is going to be hard to give your opponent bad odds to draw to catch you. If you are behind, you are done.

Grunch, there's a lot of good advice in the posts before this one, so I'm just going to emphasize the three things I saw that struck me as being particularly appropriate to your situation:

Hand 1: Raise more preflop, fold to the c/mr. It sucks, but aces get beat.

Hand 2: Fold preflop; otherwise, nh.

Re losing streaks in general: nut peddle for a while; "sure it is less EV than optimal poker, but at least it is positive." btetreau gets a medal for that gem. Tighten up for a while, seal the leaks in your play, study individual hands that PT tells you you are negative on, then reintroduce them one or a few at a time after you have a clear idea how to play them oop, in pos., etc.

I want to mention one more thing about the suited connector issue. I would rather have 4-5, 5-6, 6-7, 7-8, or 8-9 in this situation rather than J-10. Assuming Villain has aces or kings, and the board comes J-10-3 that's going to be scary for him and you might not get paid off. Now let's say the board is Q-6-7. That's not so scary and he might pay you off real well figuring you have a strong queen. Also, J-10 loses some of its "connected" value against a preflop raiser, because he is likely playing big cards, aces, kings, queens, A-K, A-Q, K-Q. Any of these hands makes your straight much less likely because some of your straight cards are not live. If you're playing 6-7s, you can be pretty sure that your straight cards are very live and a possible two pair is more deceptive. I still don't like calling a real preflop raise OOP with smaller suited connectors, but I think they actually make more sense, even though J-10s seems much stronger.

[fimbulwinter]

until you hit ~200NL:

raise 6xBB+1/limper

never slowplay anything ever

fim

[MTBlue]

Haven't read the other posts but 2000 hands and being down 4 buy-ins means absolutely nothing. It's well within a couple of standard deviations. Bad runs of cards happen to everyone. Try to find leaks but don't focus on bad beats.

[kagame]

awesome advice

[silvershade]

Here's the opinions of a fellow NL newb, take them for what they are worth (which may not be a lot /images/graemlins/wink.gif);

I learned limit first simply because thats what most of the info available covers, I got about 10 weeks play, not a huge sample but sufficient for me to be pretty happy that i can beat the games up to 2/4. I'm from the UK though so my real interest is in Pot Limit and because of the nice games No Limit for internet play and tournies.

So I've been making the switch at the same games as you are playing ( well a mix of PP .10/.25 PL and NL). It's definitely a different world but as I make adjustments to my game I am noticing that I am more comfortable and that my results are slowly getting better. I'm around even for the time being.

The biggest adjustments I've made are in the area of starting hands. Because you can end up backing anything you play with your whole stack you need to be playing hands that you are very comfortable playing for a lot of cash, this means not playing stuff like JTs in a raised pot or indeed anywhere but late or the blinds and it also means limiting the field with your big hands with a nice big raise. With this in mind here's what I think of your hands;

Hand 1/ In limit our pre-flop raises with a hand like AA are primarily for value, in big bet it's different, you do of course want to build a pot but I think you are far happier to see most of the table fold the random stuff. I think that with a hand like AA most of your winnings will come from opponents married to decent but dominated starting hands (KK,AK,QQ,AQ etc), these people will likely call a decent sized raise so make one and knock out the crap that might make an impossible to read 2 pair or straight. Personally i dont think your raise was big enough here, 4-5 x BB would be my preference and make that the same whether you have AQ, TT or AA.

Post flop I think you can maybe call the flop raise but I wouldnt call the turn once he fires again, calling down isnt something you want to do in NL, its just too expensive, though in limit I would of course call this down.

Hand 2/ This hand is all about not calling pre flop, JTs just isnt a hand you are going to be happy playing against a pre-flop raiser for a lot of cash pretty much whatever flops. I think if you hit it figures to win small if its the best hand or lose big if it makes second best. Mostly of course you just miss and have to fold, having paid too much to see the flop.

Post flop, the guy isnt scared of the board and bets straight into it, I dont think you can call here, either fold or raise him at least double his bet. If he doesnt fold to a raise then I'd be wary of calling or making any large bets from here on.