Heads up with a good player

[davidross]

Online 5/10. I’m doing this from memory not a hand history so the facts may not be exact, but I think they are close. 2+2 lurker who I am very familiar with takes the seat to my right. Game is tight enough that we may go heads up several times before the session is over. I would rate his ability and mine very close, and he is not averse to putting on a move.

I am in th eBB and everyone folds to him in the SB. He raises. I 3-bet with Aqo. He calls.

Flop A 8 3 suits not important. He checks, I bet, he calls.
Turn [A 8 3] T. Check Bet and now he raises.

How do you play this from here?

My gut tells me I’m behind, but I don’t know how badly (AT, AK, AA, TT, 88, 33) were all possible. I think he would call me down with a worse A than mine or even something like KT, but it’s possible he would raise those too. How important is it to not let a good player run over you?

[rtucker5]

My plan would be to call him down. The reason for this is that you are either way ahead or way behind. If you are way ahead you don't want to re-raise and have him fold. If you are way behind you don't want to lose additional bets. If he checks to you on the river, I would bet it.

[Zag]

There are already 7 big bets in the pot. If you call this one, presumably you will have to call another to see a showdown (plus he'll put in another) so you have to call 2 big bets to win 8. If you think there is a 20% chance that he is putting a move on you, then you have pots odds right there. Even if you think the odds are a little less, you still have a couple of outs if he holds AT (or T8, as I discuss below).

However, I can't put him on AT or AK. Do you think he would really check-call the flop with top pair? I also can't put him on AA with much reliability -- he would have 4 bet you preflop. If he was going to slowplay his AA, he would just have called the blind rather than raise in the first place. It's not out of the question, but a low probability, I think.

So I could put him on 88, 33, or TT with that betting sequence, but you can't look for monsters under the bed. I could also believe that he could have 8T, was on a steal preflop, assumed you were just showing aggression on the flop, and got a lucky turn. If that is the case, you still have 8 outs (AAQQQ333).

I think that him putting on a move is at least 20% likely. After all, you were the last aggressor preflop, so from his point of view, your flop bet might mean nothing at all. I say call him down.

[marbles]

It looks like he's put you on a PP and is trying to bash you off of it (e.g. would you lay down JJ here?). True, the hands you mentioned are possibilities, but there's still a strong possibility you're still ahead. I'd call and either call a river bet or bet the river if checked to.

[Louie Landale]

Before the flop you should disguise your stength by just calling, figuring to raise the flop pretty much no matter what. But you 3-bet...

You cannot fold heads-up against this type of player. He can easily be putting a move on you AND can easily be betting a stiff A for value. You probably should not raise since there is a very reasonable chance you are beat. Calling is a prime option.

It really is OK to call and pay it off. You do NOT have to get the last bet in on all your show-down hands. Really.

"Folding" would be letting him "run over you"; calling him down is not.

But if you really MUST "test" the player, consider calling the turn figuring to raise the river. He is a LOT less likely to 3-bet you on the river than the turn.

- Louie

[eMarkM]

You're not folding top pair, HU, in a steal situation. He could have a lot of different hands. Just call it down.

[elysium]

folding is out of the question.calling here is not good either.yes,you've got to grit your teeth here and reraise.this may stop him from putting a move on you again for the rest of the night.

[Ed Miller]

It seems like your question is, "Should I fold?" The answer is definitely no. The question is whether you should 3-bet with position or just call down. I prefer calling down because no overcards can come to your pair and you would like him to bet an inferior hand again on the river.

[davidross]

I chose to call the turn raise and the river bet. He showed down 88.

I don’t think I should have called the turn raise. My instincts told me he wasn’t putting a move on me. I could probably get away with folding once and making it look like I was making the move. Of course I couldn’t do it a second time, but the next time he might be more likely to try a move and maybe I’d catch him bluffing.

This situation is happening more frequently as I play in games with other 2+2’ers or known good players. Most of the time we seem to play each other straight up, but in the back of my mind I keep thinking it’s easier to make a move on a good player because he’s more likely to lay it down. So the chase continues.

[davidross]

OK everyone has said the same thing and in fact it’s the way I played it. But I am beginning to question the logic. I play against you a lot, and I know you will not roll over and die to my check raise. So am I going to try it with 99 on a board with an A and a T on it? Unlikely.

So say I fold to his check-raise. I am 90% sure I am beat and in fact drawing dead. Maybe now he thinks he can get away with something next time, and that’s when I call him down.

Of course now that we’ve discussed this it opens the door to the pre-emptive bluff next time we meet. Hmm what does he think that I think that he thinks that I have??????

[rtucker5]

After re-reading this thread and thinking about it, I really don't like a 3 bet on the turn. Assuming he respects your play like you respect his, you have nothing to gain by 3 betting the turn. He will fold any holding worse than yours, and call or re-raise with any holding better. You lose more when behind and win less when ahead with a turn 3 bet.

[Zag]

So say I fold to his check-raise. I am 90% sure I am beat and in fact drawing dead

If this were really the case, then you are right, you should fold. As I said before, your cost is 2 bets to win 8, so you need 20%, not the 10% you are claiming. Making these kinds of reads successfully is what separates the really good players from those that play like I do.

However, how much of your "90%" figure is hindsight? I was beating myself up for a while for not trusting my reads, so I started really focussing on them -- assigning percentages BEFORE I made an action, not after. It turns out that I was not as sure about the reads when I still had a chance to act than I remembered being after the fact. (Did that make sense?) But I'm working on it.

[Bob T.]

I think that you are not necessarily behind here. This is a battle of the blinds, and he might make that preflop raise, and subsequent checkraise with any ace.

I would call the turn bet and river bet, unless I get a queen, and then I am going to raise his river bet. If he checks the river, I will bet the river behind him.

[davidross]

You are of course correct, and I'm sure a lot of this is hindsight. There is no way to assess exactly how likely he is to make a play here. But I 3-bet him pre-flop and I don't think he would have raised me with an A. The fact is that I never have, and probably never would fold in this situation. But...I think he knows that so why would he bluff? And the circle of reasoning begins again. Have you ever seen the Princess Bride where they have the battle of wits over the poisoned glass? It's like that..I know you wouldn't bluff so I can fold. But you know I know you wouldn't bluff so logically you can bluff..My head hurts.

[elysium]

i like 3 betting because with position here, it costs the same as calling. should get a free showdown.no?

[Vehn]

You're probably behind. You're usually behind. Are you behind 80% of the time here? I don't think so.

[Louie Landale]

What's the point of trying to stop him from putting a move on you the rest of the night? Wouldn't it be more profitable to ENCOURAGE him to put moves on you, when you figure to showdown your hand anyway? What makes you think 3-betting will do that?

- Louie

[davidross]

Not against a set. Against 2 pair I think you are right.