My very first NL2000 hand: How bad is this river call?

[HoldEmKillah]

I was ready to crash last night until I saw one of my favorite fish playing NL2k (I'm a NL1000 player). So I decide to sit down for a bit. This one is my VERY first NL2k hand. Table is 5 handed. I buy in for the max and post the BB after waiting a hand. Villain has me covered w/about $2300.

Dealt to HERO: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

EP calls. Button (VILLIAN) calls, SB folds. I check.

POT~$70

FLOP: A /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

HERO bets $50, VILLIAN calls.

POT~$170

TURN: Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif

HERO bets $150. VILLIAN calls.

POT~$470

River: 10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

HERO checks, VILLIAN bets $275. HERO calls.

This is a common spot where ya miss all your draws but pick up a crappy little pair and then you get put to a decision because that pair may be good.

I didn't think VILLIAN was very strong since if he was he would have raised the turn with aces up or a set. So if he had a bare ace in his hand he would surely check it down or check down any other 1 pair hand if he put me on draw. Also if he put me on top pair he wouldn't try to blow me off it since I will likely call with top pair here. So I figure he was weak on the turn, on a draw himself, we both miss and he puts me on draw figuring I can't call.

Reasonable logic or am I talking myself into thinking that I'm ahead?

Also is a blocking bet of say $175 a bad play here? I need help on the use of blocking bets. I seem to use them at the wrong times and pick the wrong amount.

Thanks,
HEK

[ahnuld]

Why did you bet so weak on the turn. I think something like 350-400 on the turn will take this pot down the majority of the time. If he calls, well then hope you hit. On this river, I check fold. Expect to see AJ or something like it most of the time.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you bet so weak on the turn. I think something like 350-400 on the turn will take this pot down the majority of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really bet 2x the size of the pot with a draw a lot? wtf

[Big_Jim]

First off, I assume villian is not your fish?

PF, Flop, and Turn all look good to me.

On the river, the only thing that you're beating here is a missed draw, so the question is, is this how he would play a draw? Would he call without odds on the turn with a flush draw? Would he do it with one worse than Q high?

If he's the kind of player who will call big bets with draws, and then fire at the river after whiffing, then you can make this call.

I don't think your hand is any good, though. I put him on Q/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Against a typical opponent, this is a fold.

As far as the blocking bet on the river, I don't think it will be very useful in this situation. I just can't imagine a worse hand calling you here, and a weak bet will likely be raised by a tricky player.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
I think something like 350-400 on the turn will take this pot down the majority of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

And string you up by the balls the other 40% of the time.

[ahnuld]

Whopps, sorry guys, Misread the opening post. Thought pot was 45o on turn, not 150. I take most of what I said back, but I still dont like a call on river.

[HoldEmKillah]

[ QUOTE ]
First off, I assume villian is not your fish?


[/ QUOTE ]

I meant to say that Villian is NOT my fish.

[ QUOTE ]
First off, I assume villian is not your fish?

...so the question is, is this how he would play a draw? Would he call without odds on the turn with a flush draw? Would he do it with one worse than Q high?


[/ QUOTE ]

Beats me. He's an total unknown to me.

But if he does have something like Q /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif I think he would check it down, right? I believe a reasonable-minded player would do so.

As far as him whiffing the river then betting here is my thought: If he DID miss his draw then this is how an aggressive player would play it. In other words, the ONLY way he can win is if he bets. And why would he bet with a one-pair hand that he's been calling with and not raising in the first place? And why would he have something like AJ here when he didn't raise on the button in a 5-handed game? I can see A 10 here more than AJ but still unlikely since I have a 10.

To hit ya with results quickly. I called and he showed 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif


You still agree this a CLEAR fold against an unknown?

[ahnuld]

Well Im guessing you were good or you would not have posted this hand, but I think in the long run, without a very very good read, this is a losing call.

[arod15]

real bad call you have to let it go. On a scale of 1-10 10 being worst its a 10

[RikaKazak]

Here's one thought, when I play a set vs. a good player, lots of time I know they can fold top pair strong kicker to even a little raise on the turn. So if I don't put them on a draw, like maybe I put you on a weak ace since you led out (i'm pretending I'm villian), and are in the BB, with a set I call flop bet, call turn, then river hope you hit 2 pair by then so you lead, I raise you call, or by river if you don't have 2 pair, you check call river thinking I missed my flush. The draw backs are that if the flush comes, kills my action cause that's what you put me on, flush draw. Also you might be on the flush draw yourself, like the case being, and I'm not charging you to draw. Just an idea. It's the way I play a set in position vs. a thinking tight arse.

[technologic]

to say it's one of the worst calls is an overstatement

[kagame]

this is a spot where villain either has EVERYTHING or nothing

think it comes down to pot odds and the villains betting pattern

lots of people will bluff when they miss their draws

ive also "bluffed" with top pair though when i realized i was outkicked, so supposing my read was wrong you could make a call like this against me and be looking at top pair with showdown value

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
But if he does have something like Q /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif I think he would check it down, right? I believe a reasonable-minded player would do so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you're probably right.

[ QUOTE ]
As far as him whiffing the river then betting here is my thought: If he DID miss his draw then this is how an aggressive player would play it. In other words, the ONLY way he can win is if he bets. And why would he bet with a one-pair hand that he's been calling with and not raising in the first place? And why would he have something like AJ here when he didn't raise on the button in a 5-handed game? I can see A 10 here more than AJ but still unlikely since I have a 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on the player, the button limp could easily be Ax suited. A set is possible (88 or 33) but I would have expected to hear from him on the turn with those. I think Ax is the most common holding of villian in this spot, trying to use a little bit of pot control.

[ QUOTE ]
To hit ya with results quickly. I called and he showed 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice hand.


[ QUOTE ]
You still agree this a CLEAR fold against an unknown?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yup.

[HoldEmKillah]

The Nays have it...good, but -EV call.

[mgsimpleton]

Post deleted by fslexcduck

[mgsimpleton]

blocking bet is bad, he's not still calling you down with a lone 8 so all it does is prevent a tough decision like him betting big at you with a missed draw and then you having to give up the pot. but in this situation, if he calls your bet, you're beat. there are better situations and bigger pots for those sorts of bluff-preventing blocking bets.

in this pot, he was either calling you with a winner or caling you with spades (no other draws). you have two spades so those are less likely. hell, he could even have the Qs and you are beat (that would make him bluffing with the best hand). Basically, in all likelihood, he was calling you down with AT or something and value betting his two pair on the end. I think I would call this bet close to never.

[autobet]

[ QUOTE ]
The Nays have it...good, but -EV call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not as bad as some posters have suggested, but a -EV call.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

If you think villain plays worse hands like this often, it's not an atrocious call. I'd probably fold-I'm trying to fix my proclivity for making such marignal calls.

[Philuva]

If the river doesn't pair your hand, would you check call the river?

[Nick M]

such a good question...

[Shandrax]

Typical problem of BB play. You knock the table against 2 limpers with a mediocre hand, flop a backdoor royal flush draw and think you have to take charge. Unfortunately you are out of position and your opponent doesn't give you any information. Finally you end up calling with 3rd pair.

Villain play was quite weird:
What did he limp with? Ax, Kx, low pair, suited connectors?
If he hit the ace on the flop why would he just call and not raise? Weak kicker maybe, lower than Q or 10?
Why did he call with roughly 2:1 odds the turn? Draw can be ruled out at this point. What did he have in the end? A-Qo, A-To, Kh-Qh, nothing or even crazy stuff like 4-4? At least you had almost 2:1 odds on your call.

Maybe you should just have checked on the turn and let him do the betting, keeping the option to check-raise. Sure, it may give him a free card, but would he have called with just a backdoor heart flush in the first place?