200 NL hand + questions as to if I suck at poker

[pokerjoker]

Ok...after my 1st moneth I was up $4000 at the 200NL table...Today I lost $1000. this week Im down about $1700. Total I am now up $2300. I dont know what to do...Maybe i should move down...Are swings like this normal for you good $200 players?

I am posting pretty much all the hands I get stacked on that are questionable. Generally in this horrible horrible week, I win a bit, lose a bit, then get stacked and lose a lot. I wanna make sure I am OK here and not going to lose my winnings then lose my savings.

Heres another example..The guy who opened is a shitty loose passive player....the bb just sat down and is 27\7 after 15 hands for what thats worth....was i destined to lose it all here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button ($256.70)
SB ($230.58)
BB ($206.10)
UTG ($98)
UTG+1 ($147)
MP1 ($124.05)
MP2 ($272.75)
MP3 ($71.65)
Hero ($198)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls $2, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $7, MP3 folds.

Flop: ($21) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $30</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $60</font>, BB calls $30.

Turn: ($141) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $75</font>, BB calls $137.10 (All-In), Hero calls $54 (All-In).

River: ($407.10) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $407.10

[Python49]

that line looks ok to me... but in terms of your first question, no i dont think those types of swings are normal for a good player, getting stacked off shouldnt really be part of your "routine" play.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
Today I lost $1000.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on how much you play, five buy-ins in a day is a lot.

Do you go on tilt and play an inferior game after losing 3 or 4 buy-ins in a small amount of time? That might be a problem.

[crosse91]

this maybe weak tight, but i just call the flop raise, and then)
pot is 60 bucks less (total of 81)
so i would bet 50 into this pot and fold to a reraise

if smooth called-i check the river (esp. this river) and fold to a massive bet

[Ghazban]

What was the purpose of your small reraise on the flop?

[gol4pro]

Crosse's reply here was extremely results oriented.

It sucks losing top 2 to a set on a board like that.

I think you need to 3 bet the flop here badly. The min. raise looks terrible to me. Get's hardly any more money in the pot, but gives away the strength of your hand.

Bump it to 90ish on flop. I'm assuming a call from that point on to be A5/T5, or a set. I'm prepared to pay off a set against an unknown on this board. You've got the 4th nuts on flop.... and AA/TT are virtually impossible, so really the 2nd nuts. If he's got a set of 9's (and played the flop AWFULLY), then I pay him off.

Not getting your money in here is a disaster. The only conceivable hand that beats you is 55.

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: ($21) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $30</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $60</font>, BB calls $30.


[/ QUOTE ]

you really should not be doing this regularly

the other posted hand you got stacked on:
Turn: ($59) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $35, UTG raises to $70, Hero raises to $125, UTG raises to $180, Hero calls $37.60 (All-In).

I'm seeing a pattern here that doesn't look good

[crosse91]

what? i haven't seen the results-that's how i play it.
i hate two pair and i hate it more on this board.

how are 10's inconcievable on this board? b/c you have one?

[crosse91]

[ QUOTE ]

Quote:

Flop: ($21) T, A, 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $15, BB raises to $30, Hero raises to $60, BB calls $30.




you really should not be doing this regularly

[/ QUOTE ]

[Malachii]

Top two is not an impossible hand to get away from... I think crosse's post was excellent.

[Malachii]

I came off a pretty bad down swing a few weeks ago... but despite dropping 8 buyins, I learned a great deal from it. I analyzed specific sessions in PT, talked about hands with other 2+2ers, and came away with a better understanding of the game and the errors I was making and a determination to get my money back.

If you continue to run bad, this is what I would reccomend:

1.) Take a little bit of time off. It doesn't have to be a lot, but just stay away from poker for a couple of days.

2.) Pay more attention inbetween hands. This is a big one for me and really improved my results.

3.) Move down in limits for a little while. Helps rebuild bankroll + confidence.

4.) Don't be too critical of yourself. Keep in mind that in poker there will be stretches where you consistently make second best hands (two pair versus someone's set, for example) or get sucked out on, and that's just part of the game. I know it's extremely frustrating, but it will become less so if you come to accept these suckouts as the reality of poker... you're not unlucky, they're simply inevitable. As John Hennigan said, "Poker's a funny game, weird things are going to happen, and you just can't let that get the best of you."

[chumsferd]

[ QUOTE ]
this maybe weak tight, but i just call the flop raise, and then)
pot is 60 bucks less (total of 81)
so i would bet 50 into this pot and fold to a reraise

if smooth called-i check the river (esp. this river) and fold to a massive bet

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is close to the right line. Only problem I see is that you have position on this guy. So, if you call his flop c/r then he is likely to lead into you on the turn. You might not get a chance to fire $50 in on the turn in that case... and a re-raise at that point will probably commit you.

I think calling the flop and re-evaluating on the turn is probably the right line, though.

[trevor]

[ QUOTE ]
Crosse's reply here was extremely results oriented.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree.

The min-re raise on the flop is bad. I do not know what you are trying to accomplish with it but it looks like chip spewing. Plus where does it leave you on the turn?

I agree that 10 10 is unlikely. Hero has a 10 and I can't see him open limping in MP/LP with 10 10.

[ QUOTE ]
Not getting your money in here is a disaster.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh. With no read I think I lean more toward callng the raise on the flop in an effort to control the pot. I am worried about presto here.

[ryanghall]

I don't like raising ATo after a call in this situation but I'm a little tighter than most.

The check-min. raise on a monotone board is worrysome to be sure, but you have top 2 and I don't think you can get away from this if he happens to have 55.

I'd also either just raise the flop all-in and take it down right there or I would call and raise the turn all-in (assuming he'll bet, of course)

Ryan

[rikz]

In a full ring game, I play ATs for a raise in LP, but fold ATo even in the CO because I always seemed to get in trouble with it. This is probably a minor leak, but I do it to plug another leak I found a while ago where I would chase 1-card flush draws while I have the A of that suit, or going crazy with top two pair, like the hand example here, when villain probably wouldn't get all his chips in without a set or better. Then, to top it all off, a lot of guys limp AJo and AQo in EP then call down continuation bets from ATo in the cut-off when an A hits on the flop. So, even when I hit top pair I end up out-kicked.

I guess that makes me weaker-tighter.

[InsertCoin]

Am I the only one one that wouldnt even call here with A 10o?

[JobyWan]

On your hand:

You'll go broke playing A10 like that. Call or raise to $4 for value. A10 is a crap hand. At no point in this hand do you really know where you stand. You need to keep this pot small as odds are you'll only get a big bet called by a better hand. You make money in NL200 by trapping and well timed bluffs. Here you're just pushing blind. Don't push..be patient.

On losing:

I went through the same thing. I won nearly every day, but lost $1,000 on 2 occasions and $500 on 1 occasion. These were my only losses in the month of July and I finished a few thousand up. I play NL100 and NL200. Here's what helped me recover:

1) You will come back. Take a step back..read a good poker book. Be a poker nerd for a week - read instead of play.
2) You will come back. You're a winning player who will continue to plug leaks, make better reads. It only gets better from here.
3) You must work on mental discipline. Error towards folding or not bluffing/pushing for the time being. As you get your groove back, it'll become obvious when to go for it and you'll strike a good balance. It's not a coincidence that nearly every pro emphatically insists that playing too many hands is one of the greatest faults for new players.
3) Don't push. Be patient! NL100+200 are full of people begging to give you their money. Slow down if you're running bad - take what they give you - have winning sessions - stay patient and positive. Perfect your slow play - It's an important part of the game and a safe one to work on when running bad.
4) Play small ball. I don't mean play scared, but don't get into big pots unless you're 95% sure, or more, that you've got the winner. So you lay down the best hand and lose a small pot every once in a while - it's better than making the wrong read and going broke. Another great trapping oppurtunity is just around the corner..wait for a better offer.
5)$100NL can be extremely profitable. Play there. What's stopping you?
6)In general, any kind of stop wins or losses are a bad idea..but for a beginning bank roll, it might be good for your mental health to limit yourself to one buy-in a day. Even if you take a couple hours off and come back..the game will still be there, the fish will still be there, but you'll feel better because you had the mental strength to walk away. It can only translate to confidence and better control at the table. This way you're always driving instead of being taken for a poker ride.

JobyWan

[rikz]

Using Poker Tracker, evaluate all of your big losses to see if they were bad beats or bad plays according to Sklansky's Theory of Poker. Specifically, did you make good decisions on every street relative to what you would have done if you could have seen your opponent's hole cards? Did you get your opponent to make bad decisions relative to what he should have done if he could have seen yours? Etc.

Evaluate your win/loss rate with various types of starting hands to find patterns of bad play (i.e. Are you losing a lot with suited connectors because you play them too often in raised pots out of position with only one or two other players in the hand? Are you going all in preflop with JJ against a tight preflop reraiser? etc.).

Get a heads up display to get statistical reads on villains during play if you don't have one yet.

Move down a limit, start a new PT database, and grind it out until you consistently beat the game and only move up when you are comfortable with your win rate, V$PIP, PFR and aggression numbers.

My guess is that you don't suck, but maybe you aren't as good as you think you are. So maybe some careful analysis of your play, adjustments to plug leaks, and moving down a limit might be a good idea.

As for the ATo hand, I'm so weak tight I would have folded preflop (although this is probably not optimal). As it played out, I think you had a chance to get away from this hand by calling villain's check raise on the flop, then checking behind on the turn and calling a pot-sized river bet from villain, but folding to a push. On the turn and river, what rational player is going to push on this board that doesn't have you beat? Plus, there really aren't any draws that you need to protect against, so checking the turn doesn't really give any free cards to villain, and actually might induce him to bet more at the river with a hand like AQ that you will beat.

[banditbdl]

Preflop: I'd muck ATo after a limper in the CO, but that might be too tight compared to optimal play.

Postflop: I'd probably just call the opponents min-raise on the flop here, planning to checkraise all-in on the turn. The pot is going be $80+ on the turn so if your opponent makes any sort of reasonable bet on the turn your checkraise all-in will be significantly less than the size of the pot.

The only problem with this line is the villain might check behind if he has some piece of cheese like KQ here.

Final thought: You're gonna get stacked off with top 2 against bottom set, it happens. Just remember to enjoy the pots where you're the one holding the set. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one one that wouldnt even call here with A 10o?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I fold too. Even to a miniraise, I fold. Especially if you're running bad, as you say you are, fold A-10. That's the kind of hand that often requires difficult decisions after the flop and when you're running bad it is often harder to make those difficult decisions, for me at least. When you're running bad, you should tighten up even more. With a hand like A-10, you want to be in the CO or Button and get in for the absolute cheapest price and even then I don't think it's a bad idea to just fold. Even a miniraise is too much to pay for this hand, especially when things aren't going your way and your judgement may be clouded.

[-Skeme-]

ATo sucks. Just fold that [censored]. My second day at $200 I also dropped 5 buyins. I kept losing with big pairs to sets, runner runners for big pots, 2 pair to rivered higher 2 pair, I mean it was just insane. These swings can happen. Just try and get through it, it's hard.

And I don't see anything at all paying you off in this hand. My guess is that you got stacked against 55. AJo would suck.


[ QUOTE ]
I agree that 10 10 is unlikely. Hero has a 10 and I can't see him open limping in MP/LP with 10 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's BB we're going to war with, not MP.

[crosse91]

thats what my 1st 3 days up at 200nl have been like-pretty nasty except that i've managed to only lose about 200 total.
whew.

[-Skeme-]

That's pretty impressive.

[crosse91]

the variance has been incredible-with out being to get any closer than 200 in the red.

[jonnyUCB]

[ QUOTE ]
ATo sucks. Just fold that [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]

...
This responses surprises me. Hero is in the cut-off against a passive player who limped and you're going to fold? Play some position, man. It's not like you're raising an EP limper or a tough regular. How are you going to get any players to play dominated hands against you when you only raise premiums?

To all those who say fold preflop, you better be learning to play off situations rather than the two cards you're holding.

[pokerjoker]

The purpose on the pf raise was I figured I could probably take it down right there, If only the opener called I could probably take it down with a continuation bet since he blows so bad or, unlikely but even better, I make a good ammount of money from this fish if I happen to hit something really good.

The small bet on the flop was just a pot builder since I figured I had the best hand...I figured 55 was the only hand that really beats me here. Of course he had 55, but without knowing that I figured I was over 50% to win this one. What if i reraised bigger and he pushed on the flop? Would you assume he had 55/aa/tt over AK/maybe other aces?

Thanks for the advice I definately have some thinking to do.

[BZ_Zorro]

What do you lose by open folding that flop?
Now imagine you had 55 or TT...what do you lose by open folding that flop?

I'm not suggesting to open fold, just something to think about.

[wtfsvi]

Except for the small reraise on the flop, you played the hand fine in my opinion. I probably just call that check raise, but reraising bigger is an option. He pretty much can't have a draw, so I don't mind the small turn bet.