Thinking of moving up to $5/$10: Comment on $3/$6 stats

[party36master]

I'm thinking of moving up to $5/$10 in the near future.

Anything you see in my $3/$6 stats thats a leak, that will cost me in $5/$10?

Hands 16,859
VPIP- 28.77%
PFR- 21.80%
VPIPSB- 34.59%
SBtoSteal- 82.92%
BBtoSteal- 56.48%
ATTsteal- 50.19%
WWSF- 44.93%
WTSD- 33.18%
w$SD- 54.58%

BB/100- 3.72

Flop Agg- 2.73
Turn Agg- 2.09
River Agg- 2.03
Agg ex pflop- 2.37

FoldRiverBet- 42.86%
checkraise%- 0.99% (What is optimum here?)

Position Stats
Button 36/29 - 0.09 BB/hand
1 30/27- 0.22 BB/hand
2 26/23- 0.11 BB/hand
3 23/22- 0.04
BB 21/4- (0.13)
SB 35/27- (0.06)

[Nigel]

Terrible win rate, I wouldn't move up until you were at least over 9BB/100.

You're clearly not ready for 5/10 yet - that game is a bitch.

[Monty Cantsin]

Get a new nickname.

/mc

[Surfbullet]

Your att to steal is astronomical. You may also indulde the thought that you are running very well. Move up to 5/10 if you have the roll - know that relentless value-betting is the key to winning there, not stealing blinds with garbage.

Surf

[Guy Incognito]

Whoa, I'm confused. I assumed that blind stealing was easier at the higher limits, as the players tend to be tighter overall... what am I missing?

[Nigel]

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what am I missing?

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The fact that good players defend their blinds very well, and will eat someone with a 50% ASB for breakfast.

[Escape]

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Whoa, I'm confused. I assumed that blind stealing was easier at the higher limits, as the players tend to be tighter overall... what am I missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

They are better at defending them as well.

[Surfbullet]

Blind stealing isn't necessary easier, but it is more important, and more profitable(because the rake is a smaller %-age and some players fold more). However, most of the players you want to be playing against are loose-passives who will call with nearly anything. This makes stealing less important since they wont fold, and value-betting more important.

For example: You raise with J8o on the button. 2 calls from the loosies in the blinds. You miss the flop, and bet to try and pick up the pot. One calls. You don't know if he's got bottom pair, no pair, a gutshot, whatever, but he's calling. Your hand has no showdown value and you only have 1 more card to spike a pair.

Another example: you raise 22 on the button. 2 calls from loosies in the blinds. You miss the flop, and bet to try and pick up the pot. One calls. You don't know if he's got bottom pair, no pair, a gutshot, whatever, but he's calling. You can bet the turn, you may pick up the pot, he'll often call with a no-pair drawing hand (be it overcards or whatever), and you can check thruogh the river. You will often win this pot by A). folding out a worse hand on the turn B). winning at SD when he misses his draw, however weak or strong it was.

Surf

[party36master]

[ QUOTE ]

For example: You raise with J8o on the button. 2 calls from the loosies in the blinds. You miss the flop, and bet to try and pick up the pot. One calls. You don't know if he's got bottom pair, no pair, a gutshot, whatever, but he's calling. Your hand has no showdown value and you only have 1 more card to spike a pair.
Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

In $3/$6, against weakies without a large showdown percentage, this line often continues, bet call, bet fold, and I pick up the pot.

I'll cut down my steal percentage as I move up to $5/$10, thanks (at least until I get a feel).

[Bizot]

maybe its just me but WSD 33% seems a bit low and 54% W$SD a bit high?

I've always been told to shoot for 40/50 or so

[Nigel]

[ QUOTE ]
maybe its just me but WSD 33% seems a bit low and 54% W$SD a bit high?

I've always been told to shoot for 40/50 or so

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say 100/100 is optimal. But if you want to shoot for 40/50, be my guest.

On a serious note, his fold to river bet seems quite high.

[Bizot]

you disagree with 40/50 and agree with 30/54?

just voicing my opinion on this one thats all just seems low/high thats all

[Guy McSucker]

I think you should definitely give the $5/10 a go, but you should steel yourself for heavy losses if you run bad.

Your stats show that you're running very good at the $3/6: 29% VP$IP with 45% W$WSF is kind of crazy. I've never had >40% W$WSF over any extended stretch and I see far fewer flops than you do (I have 23% VP$IP).

If you hit a rough patch straight away, are you ready for the monetary losses?

Also it appears you have a very aggressive game and often win uncontested by firing on every street. The $5/10ers are on the whole more tenacious which of course wins you more on your good hands but leaves you losing a lot of pots you were hoping to pick up. Think carefully about when to shut down.

Good luck!

Guy.

[baronzeus]

38/52 are my stats.

[TeeJayORTj]

[ QUOTE ]

Your stats show that you're running very good at the $3/6: 29% VP$IP with 45% W$WSF is kind of crazy. I've never had >40% W$WSF over any extended stretch and I see far fewer flops than you do (I have 23% VP$IP).


[/ QUOTE ]

Just as a note on that. I have a measly 35K hands in my database split between 5/10 and 10/20 and with a 33 VPIP I have a W$WSF of almost 44% and a 43/47 for WTSD/W$SD. This will be something I certinly want to look into further once I have a lot more hands.

Anyways I would certinly give 5/10 a try but beware of such a high ATSB. I found my self really aggressive in those situations at 5/10 and still only had my ATSB at 40 (which from what I gather is on the high end)

[party36master]

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Your stats show that you're running very good at the $3/6: 29% VP$IP with 45% W$WSF is kind of crazy. I've never had >40% W$WSF over any extended stretch and I see far fewer flops than you do (I have 23% VP$IP).


[/ QUOTE ]

Just as a note on that. I have a measly 35K hands in my database split between 5/10 and 10/20 and with a 33 VPIP I have a W$WSF of almost 44% and a 43/47 for WTSD/W$SD. This will be something I certinly want to look into further once I have a lot more hands.

Anyways I would certinly give 5/10 a try but beware of such a high ATSB. I found my self really aggressive in those situations at 5/10 and still only had my ATSB at 40 (which from what I gather is on the high end)

[/ QUOTE ]

I will definitely be cautious here. I ended up stealing 50% at 3/6 because many loose player preflop will not defend a hand like middle pair (on the later streets) if high cards flop. Or they will call down w/Ace high when the the board looks ragged, and I've got bottom pair.
And many TAGs will not defend their blinds at all.
I will have adjust this for $5/$10.

[Nigel]

[ QUOTE ]
you disagree with 40/50 and agree with 30/54?

just voicing my opinion on this one thats all just seems low/high thats all

[/ QUOTE ]

Bizot, I was just making a joke that obviously 100/100 would be what you want to shoot for, not 40/50.

As far as one being better than the other, it's very style and opponent dependent. Also, how you are running will greatly impact these numbers. I don't think it's worth trying to tailor your game too much to meet stat criteria.

Cheers,

Nigel

Also, the W$SD can never be too high.

[baronzeus]

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Also, the W$SD can never be too high.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this statement

[Monty Cantsin]

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I ended up stealing 50% at 3/6 because many loose player preflop will not defend a hand like middle pair (on the later streets) if high cards flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know?

Also, this is basically untrue. You don't make much money at 3/6 by getting better hands to fold.

/mc

[Nigel]

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Also, the W$SD can never be too high.

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I disagree with this statement

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Huh????????????

[baronzeus]

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Also, the W$SD can never be too high.

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I disagree with this statement

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Huh????????????

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You have to make marginal calls to win...so if you're only 20% to win a hand in an 8BB pot, you should call, it's +EV, even though it brings down your W$SD

[Nigel]

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Also, the W$SD can never be too high.

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I disagree with this statement

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Huh????????????

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You have to make marginal calls to win...so if you're only 20% to win a hand in an 8BB pot, you should call, it's +EV, even though it brings down your W$SD

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If you know what your opponent holds, why would you ever see a showdown with a losing hand?

[Monty Cantsin]

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Also, the W$SD can never be too high.

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I disagree with this statement

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Huh????????????

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You have to make marginal calls to win...so if you're only 20% to win a hand in an 8BB pot, you should call, it's +EV, even though it brings down your W$SD

[/ QUOTE ]

If you know what your opponent holds, why would you ever see a showdown with a losing hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure why you're asking this, but I did think of an answer: You bet, he calls.

/mc

[baronzeus]

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Also, the W$SD can never be too high.

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I disagree with this statement

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Huh????????????

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You have to make marginal calls to win...so if you're only 20% to win a hand in an 8BB pot, you should call, it's +EV, even though it brings down your W$SD

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If you know what your opponent holds, why would you ever see a showdown with a losing hand?

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Is there some way I can see what my opponent holds?

[Nigel]

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Also, the W$SD can never be too high.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this statement

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Huh????????????

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You have to make marginal calls to win...so if you're only 20% to win a hand in an 8BB pot, you should call, it's +EV, even though it brings down your W$SD

[/ QUOTE ]

If you know what your opponent holds, why would you ever see a showdown with a losing hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure why you're asking this, but I did think of an answer: You bet, he calls.

/mc

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, yeah. You could make failed bluff/bluff raise attempts. But it doesn't change the fact that you want your W$SD as high as possible. And obviously, you'd want all your bluff attempts to work, not have him call your 3 high bet with 4 high.

I can't even believe this requires discussion.

[Tropex]

Am i the only one or does 9 BB / 100 sounds unreasonably high ? I mean shouldn't you expect to win like 1-2 BB / 100 in the long run or something.

[Poldi]

That was a joke.

[party36master]

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Also, this is basically untrue. You don't make much money at 3/6 by getting better hands to fold.

/mc

[/ QUOTE ]

This is untrue. When you steal and autobet the flop w/ K2, J5s, T8s, etc, as much as I do, you do make money getting better hands to fold.

[bottomset]

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Also, the W$SD can never be too high.

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I disagree with this statement

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Huh????????????

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You have to make marginal calls to win...so if you're only 20% to win a hand in an 8BB pot, you should call, it's +EV, even though it brings down your W$SD

[/ QUOTE ]

If you know what your opponent holds, why would you ever see a showdown with a losing hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure why you're asking this, but I did think of an answer: You bet, he calls.

/mc

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, yeah. You could make failed bluff/bluff raise attempts. But it doesn't change the fact that you want your W$SD as high as possible. And obviously, you'd want all your bluff attempts to work, not have him call your 3 high bet with 4 high.

I can't even believe this requires discussion.

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yeah if your opponent played with his cards face up, you should rarely lose a SD, only when you bluff at the river when he's weak and he still calls

but um your opponents don't play with their hands face up, so you make estimates on what they hold, what you beat, and what kind of odds you are getting

folding the river for 1bet HU, when you win 20% of the time in a 10BB pot is a huge error .. but it drops your W$SD to make the profitable call

[Nigel]

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Also, the W$SD can never be too high.

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I disagree with this statement

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Huh????????????

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You have to make marginal calls to win...so if you're only 20% to win a hand in an 8BB pot, you should call, it's +EV, even though it brings down your W$SD

[/ QUOTE ]

If you know what your opponent holds, why would you ever see a showdown with a losing hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure why you're asking this, but I did think of an answer: You bet, he calls.

/mc

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, yeah. You could make failed bluff/bluff raise attempts. But it doesn't change the fact that you want your W$SD as high as possible. And obviously, you'd want all your bluff attempts to work, not have him call your 3 high bet with 4 high.

I can't even believe this requires discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah if your opponent played with his cards face up, you should rarely lose a SD, only when you bluff at the river when he's weak and he still calls

but um your opponents don't play with their hands face up, so you make estimates on what they hold, what you beat, and what kind of odds you are getting

folding the river for 1bet HU, when you win 20% of the time in a 10BB pot is a huge error .. but it drops your W$SD to make the profitable call

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, no doubt. But we we're talking what is optimal, so WANTING your W$SD number to be LOWER, just so your stats "look right" is just absurd. Ideally you'd never want to lose a showdown, but a couple of people seem so stat obsessed they are missing that point and for some reason seem to think losing showdowns is a good thing.

Basically, what you don't want is a low WTSD to attain a W$SD. What you do want, obviously, is to go to showdown as often as possible with the winning hand, as that will make you the most money. Your WTSD can be too low, your W$SD can never be too high. 100% would be perfect.

This seems so basic, but maybe I'm missing something.

[baronzeus]

Assuming you go to the right number of showdowns at the right times, your W$SD can never be too high. But since we all make marginal river calls where we are 20% or something to win a big pot, we expect our W$SD to be between 50 and 60 in general.

[wackjob]

I just started playing 5/10 again after playing 3/6 for 6K hands to rebuild my BR after I had need for a lot of cash. I win at both easily. Here are my stats

Last 6k hand 3/6 6max Party:
VPIP:24.25, AttSB:33.97, BB/100:2.49, W$SD:51.64, PFR:16.74

Last 25K hand 5/10 6max Party:
VPIP:26.43, AttSB:37.72, BB/100:1.46, W$SD:51.30, PFR:17.41

I've also been on a downswing at both levels in general for the last 5K hands or so.

Good luck.

[Monty Cantsin]

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Also, this is basically untrue. You don't make much money at 3/6 by getting better hands to fold.

/mc

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This is untrue. When you steal and autobet the flop w/ K2, J5s, T8s, etc, as much as I do, you do make money getting better hands to fold.

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I'm not talking about picking up the pot when you both miss and they have a higher card than you. I'm referring to your claim that you pick up a lot of pots by players folding middle pair on the turn or river in blind steal situations.

So, again, first of all, how do you know? What makes you think they're folding middle pair as opposed to, say, bottom pair, or, I don't know... 8 high?

And secondly, which of these statements do you think is more true:

When the pre-flop raiser bets a flop containing high cards...

A) The average party 3/6 player will fold middle pair.
B) The average party 3/6 player will call with nothing.

/mc

[Monty Cantsin]

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Yes, no doubt. But we we're talking what is optimal, so WANTING your W$SD number to be LOWER, just so your stats "look right" is just absurd. Ideally you'd never want to lose a showdown, but a couple of people seem so stat obsessed they are missing that point and for some reason seem to think losing showdowns is a good thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to take one more crack at this.

Yes, a lot of 2+2ers are unproductively stat-obsessed.

However, there are situations where your stats can provide a very useful diagnostic tool for analyzing your game and improving it.

So when people say you "want" your W$SD to be within such and such a range, what they are actually saying is that you want your play to be correct, and if your play is correct your W$SD will necessarily be within such and such a range, and therefore you "want" your W$SD to be in that range.

It's a case of people "wanting" evidence for something because the thing the evidence signifies is desirable, despite the evidence itself having no value or even negative value.

You could take your argument and apply it to the human body and say "Why would anyone want to feel pain?" Well, because feeling pain is an indication that your central nervous system is in good working order. So, yeah, I do want to feel pain. Because if I don't something is seriously wrong.

I get that you understand this and are making a trickier, philosophical point, that if you could magically win every hand your W$SD would be 100 and who wouldn't want that?

But even this point isn't really valid because in the magical hypothetical fantasy world in which I win every hand Poker stops being a game, and after a month of socking away a bunch of cash I quit playing forever. And given the choice, I wouldn't take that option.

/mc