expectation and time

[malorum]

Looking for experiences (anecdotal will do)
Forgive the poker Jargon.

What is the expectation and variance on a bankroll of 100k USD over a year or two, for a winning day trader.
How many hours are we talking about and how does that translate to an hourly rate.

100 USD per hour (with low capital requirements) in the long run is no big deal in poker of course, and I am interested to see what level of capital is required to make it possible to exceed this in LONG RUN as a day trader.


Please don't just point me to the books, I just wanted some personal experiences to give me some idea.

[lu_hawk]

your expectation is to turn 100k into less than 100k, you quite possibly will lose close to everything. there are traders on this board, if they reply they will tell you the same thing. almost everyone fails, some people are good at it.

[malorum]

useful warning, but distinct lack of information.

I don't need a lecture about efficent markets, I wanted some idea as to wether I would in principle be able to leverage my risk capital more effectively.


Of course I already have an answer floating around that says yes for 200k, and maybe for 100k. leveraging this effectively in poker is rather tough.
I really wanted to get some anecdotal feedback also to see wether there was anyone trading at an adequate level willing to post here.

[Sniper]

[ QUOTE ]
What is the expectation and variance on a bankroll of 100k USD over a year or two, for a winning day trader.


[/ QUOTE ]

First, your question makes an assumption, you are asking about a "winning daytrader". My response relies on this assumption.

So, assuming you survive your first year, have taken the time to educate yourself on what it takes to be a winning day trader, have a detailed trading plan and successful system, have the appropriate mind set for trading success, understand and actively apply risk management rules, have a successful mentor, are committed to put in the time necessary to be successful, use the proper tools, continue your education, know how and when to use leverage to your advantage, is as comfortable going short as going long, etc...

A winning day trader is looking to average +1%/day (compounded) on equity (bankroll). This will not be consistant. Most of your monthly gains may come from only a few good trending days each month, with smaller gains/losses on non-trending days.

[ QUOTE ]
How many hours are we talking about and how does that translate to an hourly rate.

[/ QUOTE ]

A winning day trader knows that he's running a business. This is a full time job. The market is open from 9:30-4, but you have to add in additional research time and possibly pre and post market trading. The futures market trades basically round the clock.

A winning day trader knows how to balance his committment to the market and the rest of his life.

[ QUOTE ]
100 USD per hour (with low capital requirements) in the long run is no big deal in poker of course

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure that I would agree with you that $100/hr from poker (or from any money making enterprise for that matter) is no big deal, however, by comparison there are many more people making $100+/hr from trading than from poker, simply because the "game" is larger.

[ QUOTE ]
Please don't just point me to the books, I just wanted some personal experiences to give me some idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

These comments are based on personal experience, and from working with many day traders (and want to be day traders) over the years.

[malorum]

Thanks,
I found the info helpful.


Just to clarify my comment:
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure that I would agree with you that $100/hr from poker (or from any money making enterprise for that matter) is no big deal,

[/ QUOTE ]

The amount is simply based on empirical data. But then I was taught to 'do poker' in a specific way by my mentor.
At each stage I followed his lead and this made it seem easy. perhaps my no big deal comment is a little harsh, but I've only ever known the 'game' of poker in a 'professional' context.