Size this bet

[davidross]

Party 200.

First towards table image. Villain and I have been at the table together for at least 90 minutes. Since I got there early with 2K in chips I played maybe 4 hands in 4 levels, until with the BB hitting 200 I pushed 4 times, once in LP then 3 times in the next orbit, none of which got called. Then I folded 2 more orbits until with blinds up to 150/300 I pushed over top of a raiser with AK, he had AQ and I doubled up to 5K. A few hands later I open raised again to 750 and won the blinds, now to my hand in question.

Blinds are 150/300. I'm in the SB with AK. Folded to me and I make it 750 again. BB is a big stack at 8K, who seemed to consider calling some of my all-ins earlier, now of course I can hurt him much worse. He just calls my raise.

Flop K Q J rainbow.

Whats my play? Please give me your reasons.

[davidross]

Here's what I'm thinking.

I'm pretty sure he's suspicious of my hand. After so long of not playing I've come to life and played for all my chips agfain and again, but the only hand I've shown was AK.

I'm not folding this hand, so with that in mind, do I bet big, small or try and check-raise here? WHat am I afraid of? If I'm already behind, then so be it, I lose or I suck out, I'm not going ot worry about that, but If I'm ahead, what am I afraid of? If I bet big here, I probably only get called if I'm behind, but I eliminate a chance of getting sucked out on and pick up the 1500 in the pot. Not insignificant. If he has a T in his hand, I'm giving him a good price if I bet small, but I might suck a one pair hand into chasing that way and pick up a bigger pot.

That's the process I went through and decided to bet half the pot at 750. He raised to 1500 and I pushed. He had Q7.
He spiked a 7 on the turn and out I went. Be careful what you wish for. My original thought was that I got exactly what I wanted for an 11K pot that would have got me comfortably into the money. Winning the pot on the flop would have kept me alive, but still just average and looking for a spot like the one I just missed, but I'm wondering if anyone thinks betting big on the flop is a better idea.

[Hotrod0823]

I hate that flop!

I think I bet out 1k and hope to take it down. I don't know how I feel if he pushes. Too many hands have me beat here.

KJ, KQ, AT, QJ are all hands that he may just called with PF.

Well I managed to just talk my way out of betting this. I honestly think you may be beat here but I hate giving it up so easily.

That and I pushed AK into a KT9 flop last night and got shown QJs so my view may not be totally uneffected.

[CardSharpCook]

bro, this is dangerously close to a bad beat post. You played it right. You got your opponent to accept an improper bet for an improper price. You managed to get your opponent to come back over the top with an inferior holding. Well played, bad beat, next hand/tourney.

CSC

[davidross]

Certainly not my intent. I got exactly what I wanted here, but I'm wondering a couple of things

1) WHat is the default play against someone who can bust you here, try and entice a call, or just take what's in the pot, or at least make the call really bad

2) If you want to entice a call, what do you do with your bet size? Does a big overbet look more suspicious than a small bet?

[ekky]

[ QUOTE ]
1) WHat is the default play against someone who can bust you here, try and entice a call, or just take what's in the pot, or at least make the call really bad

[/ QUOTE ]

Its better to look at big stacks as entities that can double you up, rather then bust you. Its probably higher variance, in that you will have a huge stack or be gone, but strong hands vs big-stacks dont come around too often, and I like to make the most of it when I get the chance.

[ QUOTE ]
2) If you want to entice a call, what do you do with your bet size? Does a big overbet look more suspicious than a small bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Its image dependant. If you have a loose wild image.. people are going to respect an underbet much more then an overbet (they expect an overbet/big bet on anyflop from a WAG)

if you are a tight solid player, they generally fear a small, inducing bet more then an oversized bet.

These are generalizations naturally, but they fit most scenarios.

[BigBiceps]

I would bet half the pot with the following intentions.

If he calls and no scare card comes on the turn, push all in.

If he calls and a scare card comes on the turn, check and fold if he bets any reasonable amount.

If he raises on the flop, reraise him or call him all-in.

If he folds, good job, you got him to fold with the minimal risk.


I am not sure if my play is logical, but it is what I would do.

[locutus2002]

I like your line of T750.

I think a player who is irritated at you like villain is going to pop you back here more often than not. Hero's range has to be pretty wide here including a lot of Ace-rags. I think villain will pop you with any face card, and give you the opportunity to move all in. It's possible that they were going to raise a non-ace flop when they called BTF because your continuation bet is almost compulsory given your image.

[Brad F.]

[ QUOTE ]
Party 200.

First towards table image. Villain and I have been at the table together for at least 90 minutes. Since I got there early with 2K in chips I played maybe 4 hands in 4 levels, until with the BB hitting 200 I pushed 4 times, once in LP then 3 times in the next orbit, none of which got called. Then I folded 2 more orbits until with blinds up to 150/300 I pushed over top of a raiser with AK, he had AQ and I doubled up to 5K. A few hands later I open raised again to 750 and won the blinds, now to my hand in question.

Blinds are 150/300. I'm in the SB with AK. Folded to me and I make it 750 again. BB is a big stack at 8K, who seemed to consider calling some of my all-ins earlier, now of course I can hurt him much worse. He just calls my raise.

Flop K Q J rainbow.

Whats my play? Please give me your reasons.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi David.

If he's been paying attention to your raises and your aggression (which it seems like he has), you need to bet the flop, no doubt about it. He will in all liklihood reraise with J-10, Q-10, K-10, A-J, A-Q, all of which are possible holdings here. He will also be ahead of you every once and a while, but this is blind versus blind and like you said, you will go broke here if he has the st8t, 2 pair, or set.

He might even reraise with one pair and no straight draw here, assuming he can take it down against your 'blind' aggression (pun intended). Something like K-8 maybe.

No way do you check here, as it in my opinion would be transparent you had something at this juncture. I think I bet 1/2-3/4 of the pot and hope to eventually get your money in. Hope it went ok.

edit: Just saw results, quite the brutal beat and you played it great.

Brad