KQo with a paired flop

[ajmargarine]

.50/$1 NLHE Full Table 7-handed

Both Hero and Villian are deep stacked.

Preflop: Hero is Button with K /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
3 folds, Villian raises to $5, Hero calls $5, 2 folds.

Flop: ($11) 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Villian bets $5.80, Hero calls.

Turn: ($22.10) 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Villain bets $9.80, Hero raises to $25, Villian calls.

River: ($70.10) 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Villian checks, Hero bets $50...

Standard?

[rikz]

Wow. There is nothing standard here. Hero is either making a brilliant play based on his read of Villain as weak-tight, or Hero is a moron. But the difference between the two is entirely read dependent.

First, KQo is not worth calling a 5x BB raise unless he has a read on Villain as raising with trash a lot (like a 20% PFR or more, for example), but I fold KQo even then. I'll raise with it in LP if limped to, but I don't call a raise preflop with it. Of course, I'm pretty tight.

Second, hero missed the flop entirely. Why choose this spot to bluff? Villain could be a mediocre player married to an overpair like QQ, KK or AA. He could have raised with AJ. Hero's stop and go might be OK if he really had a hand (like 3s full of Js), but with nothing, I think hero is playing with fire.

Third, VERY few players call that turn raise without being willing to call another $50 to win $120 on the river. He's not drawing. So, he either has a J or an overpair. If hero's trying to make villain lay down KK, for example, then hero had better have a really good read on villain as someone who (1) thinks hero doesn't bluff much, and (2) has the discipline to lay down an overpair to hero's representation of a J or better.

I don't like this line at all, actually, even though if I had AA then hero would have made me fold with that turn raise. If hero makes plays like this a lot, then I would take a note on how hero played one of these types of hands and kept a closer eye on the PT stats for hero on later hands. If I start to suspect he's a bluffer, I'll adjust my play to call a little more, or try and trap him into bluffing at me while I'm holding a strong hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Wow. There is nothing standard here. Hero is either making a brilliant play based on his read of Villain as weak-tight, or Hero is a moron. But the difference between the two is entirely read dependent.

First, KQo is not worth calling a 5x BB raise unless he has a read on Villain as raising with trash a lot (like a 20% PFR or more, for example), but I fold KQo even then. I'll raise with it in LP if limped to, but I don't call a raise preflop with it. Of course, I'm pretty tight.

Second, hero missed the flop entirely. Why choose this spot to bluff? Villain could be a mediocre player married to an overpair like QQ, KK or AA. He could have raised with AJ. Hero's stop and go might be OK if he really had a hand (like 3s full of Js), but with nothing, I think hero is playing with fire.

Third, VERY few players call that turn raise without being willing to call another $50 to win $120 on the river. He's not drawing. So, he either has a J or an overpair. If hero's trying to make villain lay down KK, for example, then hero had better have a really good read on villain as someone who (1) thinks hero doesn't bluff much, and (2) has the discipline to lay down an overpair to hero's representation of a J or better.

I don't like this line at all, actually, even though if I had AA then hero would have made me fold with that turn raise. If hero makes plays like this a lot, then I would take a note on how hero played one of these types of hands and kept a closer eye on the PT stats for hero on later hands. If I start to suspect he's a bluffer, I'll adjust my play to call a little more, or try and trap him into bluffing at me while I'm holding a strong hand.

[/ QUOTE ]


Wow, well said. Can't imagine there's much to add to that. I agree entirely.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
read of Villain as weak-tight, or Hero is a moron.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with the first part, and the second part is probably debatable. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I've only played with villian for about 3 orbits and he hasn't done anything stupid, looks ok. He probably looks at me and thinks I am ok, as I haven't done anything stupid either.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like this line at all, actually, even though if I had AA then hero would have made me fold with that turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

...and that was the point. I think an OK/average player and above could find a fold in this hand, with a big pp. I don't think villian has to be weak/tight for this to work. I think only a below average player would see a showdown here without a jack in his hand.

When he called, I said 'oops'...I still didn't think he had a jack in his hand, more likely an overpair...but I had to continue on the river and "value bet my jack"...I think the $50 on the end is consistent with my play so far, and is a bet from someone looking for a call with AJ...big enough to make him think about it, but not too large that it'll cost me too much if he calls, and not too small that it's an instacall.

[xcrack999]

How deep are you both? With something like 300xBB and an opponent who can't let go of one pair type hands or someone whom I know I can outplay postflop, I'm calling a raise in position with any decent hand, including KQo, especially if my opponent opened from CO which might be a steal. Personally, I would raise more on the turn because your raise to $25 is giving him like 4:1 on his call, and he might very well think his middle pair is good 20% of the time here. I like raising to $35 and be done with the hand if he calls.

[djoverpour]

I think along these same lines many times. My take is that at a 100nl table, the play still isnt terrific. Maybe I play alot of fishy games, but I would be surprised to see someone laydown AA or KK in that situation. I think that you did a great job repping a J but to some people, AA or KK is a big hand and they think they have a good hand cause they flopped 2 pair.

[xcrack999]

I agree with you that you probably can't make someone fold a big pair enough times to make this line profitable. But you can probably make an average player lay down TT, 99, 88, 77, 66, AK, and AQ with a big bluff on the turn.

[ajmargarine]

Results:

River: ($70.10) 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Villian checks, Hero bets $50, Villian folds.

This isn't something I do often. Hardly ever really. In the past, if I would make a move, I would usually do it on the flop. I think that that is -EV compared to this move, not that this is some hugely +EV move.

We often say things like 'outplay him after the flop' or 'see a flop and play some pokah.' I think this qualifies. Plus, I got kind of a rush out of it. (Is that bad? /images/graemlins/smile.gif )

[jacknine]

Imagine this:
River: ($70.10) 9 (2 players)
Villian checks, Hero bets $50, Villian goes all in.
(since you said both of you were deep stacked, I´d assume the pot would now be +$150?) I would slap myself when I´d saw that pot go his way because I tried to got clever with a King-high bluff.

[ahnuld]

FOLD ON EVERY STREET

I hate this play at the .5-1 level, as most players cant laywdown AA or KK. Unless you have some read that he plays weak tight, I think this is a horrible play that should just be avoided by folding preflop.

[rikz]

I think you took a gutsy risk that paid off for you this time. You had nothing except position and a scary board that you figured would scare the preflop raiser more than it scared you. Ultimately, your read proved correct, but only after you gambled over $100 to win about $40 that villain wasn't a calling station who couldn't lay down QQ/KK/AA, which are the only hands I could see him calling your turn reraise with that don't have a J in them.

It's great you can make that move, but you're playing with fire at NL 100 with online players that won't remember you and whose faces you can't see to get a read on them. So, showing your bluff (if you did) wouldn't give you the same kind of meta-game benefit that playing with a bunch of tight regulars in a live game might. And I think there are just too many bad players that call you here to make this move without a really solid read on villain as someone you play with regularly, who is likely to lay down an overpair, and who you can show your bluff to at the end of the hand in order to increase your chance that this villain and the others at the table will call you the next time you really do have a full house.

nh, though, it really is much gutsier than I could have played it. As I mentioned before, I would have folded preflop.

Edit: I was just thinking that I would have liked this a lot more if it was a semi-bluff line that you were playing like a set of 3s for a full house. At least then you'd have had outs. I just don't have the stomach for absolutely pure bluffs on line at this level into the preflop raiser.

[ajmargarine]

Question to all you folks who were nice enough to comment on this hand:

If you were villian, and you held AA/KK/QQ, would you have laid your hand down before showdown?

I thought so. There's alot of poor players at these levels. But, there's more players who are just OK, trying to win more than they lose, who can read a board and know when they are beat.

[xcrack999]

I don't get why you guys are so against this bluff. Are you guys advocating never ever bluffing? This isn't a bad situation to bluff here. Your opponent bets half the pot on the flop and half the pot on the turn. He either has a decent hand but afraid of the paired board, or he has absolutely nothing.

And when he calls that turn raise on a drawless board, you know he has a decent hand, but you absolutely cannot just put him on AA, KK, or QQ like most of you are doing. He calls $15.20 in a $56.90 pot getting 3.75 to 1 on his call and then checks to you on the river. How does that mean he has a premium pair? Because he opened from the cut-off, his range of hand is huge. When he calls that turn raise and checks to you on the river, I would say his hand range is something like AA, KK, QQ, 99, TT, 88, 77, 66, A3s, or A5s. You don't think an ok player will fold TT to A5s if you bet again on the river? As the original poster said, you shouldn't be bluffing like this everytime you're in this situation, but bluffing once in a while isn't going to kill you. Set farming gets tedious and boring, and making plays like this with marginally positive expectation from time to time adds excitement to your game.