Turn a set on a 3-flush board

[HeroInBlack]

This is in a 3-table $10+1 SNG, and this is the final table.
Read on villain is loose-aggressive.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t5085)
UTG (t3105)
Hero (t3068)
MP1 (t2095)
MP2 (t7637)
MP3 (t5815)
CO (t2185)
Button (t4010)
SB (t7500)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t200, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls t200, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (t800) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks.

Turn: (t800) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t600</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t2400</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero?

[billyjex]

you can't fold -- he can have a donkey played A9, 22, etc just as much as a flush. you have outs if you're behind.

[HeroInBlack]

Well, I figured he COULD have the flush, but it was equally likely he had something less than that and/or thought I was trying to buy the pot.

In reality, I think that analysis was wrong, because he was really unlikely to have the case 7 and made two pair on the turn, and if he had had top pair, he would have bet the flop.

I knew I had a redraw even if he had the flush, so I called on the basis that I might have the best hand, and I had 10 outs even if he had the flush.

I couldn't just call and fold with 2xBB left, so I pushed in.

Villain turns over Qd 4d for the made flush, and the river doesn't help, so I go broke.

Shoulda folded, I think.

[Exitonly]

I'm with billy jex, can't fold there, he could have just picked up a flush draw with his middle pair, or any number of stupid things. And even if he for sure has a flush, you're nearly getting good enough odds to call. So considering it's not a certainty that he has the flush, call.


-Ray

[Dave D]

I think your call was right. I don't think with only two other people you can assume he made the flush. Like you said, if he did, you still have redraws.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If your read is accurate, you'd think he'd have bet the flop with a flush draw *and* position. I'd also think he'd have raised preflop with 99. I doubt he has an A.

As it is, you're getting a bit more than 3:2 on your money if you call. You have 10 outs if you're behind, meaning you improve to beat a flush about 24% of the time. If you're ahead 20% of the time, you have a clear call. No way an aggressive player has a flush 4/5 of the time he plays the hand like this.

Get the rest of your chips in the middle.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

You mistake wasn't folding to the bet. It was betting the turn in the first place.

Three points:

1) In TPFAP, Sklansky says you don't want to make a bet if being raised will make you want to throw up. The turn here clearly fits that description.

2) With the third flush card on the board, what kind of hand calls your bet? Probably only a hand that contains the K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

3) If you check and either opponent does have a flush, they will probably not make a very large bet, trying more to elicit a call or two. Thus you get a cheaper look at the river and likely don't lose all your chips.

[Exitonly]

I don't know about checking the turn, taht's true your first point, but more often than not they didn't just hit a flush there, and you dont want to give them a free shot at the river if they just acquired a flush draw.

yea definitely have to bet the turn, you most likely have the best hand, and you want to get money in there, one of your points against betting was that the K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or the Q of /images/graemlins/diamond.gif would call you, but that's what you want, you want to charge drawing hands. Have to bet.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

you dont want to give them a free shot at the river if they just acquired a flush draw.

I might agree with this if 1) this were a limit game or 2) if he had a hand he could easily fold to a big raise.

Not giving a free shot is a legitimate concern, but in this specific situation, a couple of things suggest caution.

1) He has too strong a hand. He wants to see the river.
2) Since the flop was checked around, he has no clue where he stands.
3) He's at the final table 4 spots from the money.
4) Up to this point, he's only invested 6.7% of his stack.
5) There are only 7 diamonds left if only one opponent holds a single diamond. That means 85% of the time he's ahead his hand holds up.

Sure, he needs to accumulate chips, but a bet here is high-risk, low reward. He only gets serious action if he's a 7:3 dog.

In the end, I guess if you accept the fact that your bet may commit all your chips in what amounts to at best a coin flip, and you accept that because you think that's your best chance to win, I can't argue.

I think if he has 25% fewer chips, I agree with the bet. If he has 25% more chips, it's a clear check. At his current M of 10, it's a tougher choice.