On unreal SNG run. Is it inevitable that I'm gonna downswing hard?

[Toddy]

Over the past 10 days I've played in 22 $105+9 SNG's. I had 10 wins 5 2nds 2 3rds by far the best run of my life. In $55 Sngs i've played 32. I have 10 wins 6 2nds 3 3rd. I have an ITM % of 67% and Win % of about 38% which is obvious an amazing run. I just played a $105 SNG and came in 9th. Is it inevitable that I'm gonna go in the worst drought of my life?

[pearljam]

[ QUOTE ]
Over the past 10 days I've played in 22 $105+9 SNG's. I had 10 wins 5 2nds 2 3rds by far the best run of my life. In $55 Sngs i've played 32. I have 10 wins 6 2nds 3 3rd. I have an ITM % of 67% and Win % of about 38% which is obvious an amazing run. I just played a $105 SNG and came in 9th. Is it inevitable that I'm gonna go in the worst drought of my life?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably, because if you have to ask this question your not beating the 105+9.

[petvan]

In a word...no.

[Nick B.]

With that attitude, yes. The more you think about it, the worse you are going to [censored] yourself. Each day is a new day and play accordingly.

[Toddy]

[ QUOTE ]
In a word...no.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just finished out of the money in a $55.. I requested 3000 from Pokerstars so im not giving it back. (right now anyways)

[Nicholasp27]

well, you cannot keep up that rate forever, no

however, u may not downswing hard, u may slow down, which will gradually lower those numbers until they trend toward your actual roi/itm

although, if u play enough sngs, eventually u will downswing hard...but that may not be in the next 100 or even next 1000

just remember, every game u win $x depending on your ACTUAL roi...whether u win or lose money in any given sng or set of sngs is immaterial (unless u don't have sufficient br)...if u are a 10% roi player, then you are making $10.90 per tournament no matter what your actual placing

so you made $239.80 in those 22 109s, even if your actual account shows you made much more than that

[KramerTM]

Keep it to yourself. Some of us are lamenting downsings over here.

[Oluwafemi]

[ QUOTE ]
Keep it to yourself. Some of us are lamenting downsings over here.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly.

sidenote: anybody who has enough experience playing SNG already knows about the inevitable downswings. i just think this was OP's way, "i wanna post my good results".

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Keep it to yourself. Some of us are lamenting downsings over here.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly.

sidenote: anybody who has enough experience playing SNG already knows about the inevitable downswings. i just think this was OP's way, "i wanna post my good results".

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe...it doesnt matter. What it does exhibit in any case, is a lack of understanding of some basic precepts that are needed to make a good poker player in the first place. No offense to the OP, but a winning player should understand the concept of statistical independence. Having a great upswing is in no way causative of an ensuing downswing. Like an above reply stated, one cannot keep up those type of results, however, it does not follow that you will go on a horrible run necessarily.

In the case that this was a mere brag post...great, bragging is fine (IMO, Im not a mod) but don't post it under the guise of a stats question which you SHOULD know the answer to.

p

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
just remember, every game u win $x depending on your ACTUAL roi...whether u win or lose money in any given sng or set of sngs is immaterial (unless u don't have sufficient br)...if u are a 10% roi player, then you are making $10.90 per tournament no matter what your actual placing

so you made $239.80 in those 22 109s, even if your actual account shows you made much more than that

[/ QUOTE ]

This is completely ridiculous.

[Mr_J]

"just remember, every game u win $x depending on your ACTUAL roi...whether u win or lose money in any given sng or set of sngs is immaterial (unless u don't have sufficient br)...if u are a 10% roi player, then you are making $10.90 per tournament no matter what your actual placing"

No, EV doesn't come into it. Results don't 'even up' over the long run.

[gildwulf]

I would strongly recommend you NOT cashing out all your profit...when you hit that "inevitable downswing" you will go broke.