30/60 Turn [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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PokerMike

08-06-2005, 12:48 PM

Villian is 26/17/2.5 after 295hands, filtered for 7+ players.

If he was getting frisky with a flush/straight draw on the flop then the turn bet is good because of the dramatic change in equity, yes?

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
Hero raises, MP 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero raises, MP 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, MP raises, Hero calls.

River: (10.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.75 BB

ALL1N

08-06-2005, 09:44 PM

I think you're overplaying your hand a bit here. Heaps of the legitimate 3-betting hands are still ahead of you on J98. I think I like check-call with a turn bet best.

krishanleong

08-06-2005, 10:58 PM

If you are going to bet/call the turn, I think you have to fold the river. If you aren't going to fold the river, I'd check call the turn I think.

Krishan

PokerMike

08-07-2005, 12:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you are going to bet/call the turn, I think you have to fold the river. If you aren't going to fold the river, I'd check call the turn I think.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Reasoning behind the turn donkbet is what Nate explains in this (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1103806&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&fpart=all&vc=1) thread. If none of the draws(straight/flush/AK/AQ/AT etc..) got there on the river, how can i fold this big pot for one bet vs this type of aggro player?

PokerMike

08-07-2005, 12:32 AM

Main reason for the turn bet comes from this (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1103806&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&fpart=all&vc=1) thread(as i already mentioned).

I ran some numbers and this is what i got.

Flop equity:

Board: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.0707 % 42.84% 05.23% { A/images/graemlins/heart.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif }
Hand 2: 51.9293 % 46.69% 05.23% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+, AcJd, AcJs, AdJc, AdJs, AsJc, AsJd }

Turn equity:

Board: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.9196 % 48.46% 04.46% { A/images/graemlins/heart.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif }
Hand 2: 47.0804 % 42.62% 04.46% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+, AcJd, AcJs, AdJc, AdJs, AsJc, AsJd }

So the equity increase wasn't dramatic, but its definately there. Is this reason enough to justify the play? I think my estimates for villian's 3betting range are on the conservative side(remember, he raises 17% when there are 7-10 players sitting).

Cmon i want to get some discussion going.

ALL1N

08-07-2005, 01:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Flop equity:

Board: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.0707 % 42.84% 05.23% { A/images/graemlins/heart.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif }
Hand 2: 51.9293 % 46.69% 05.23% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+, AcJd, AcJs, AdJc, AdJs, AsJc, AsJd }

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't this convince you not checkraise the flop?? You shouldn't be playing aggressively when your equity is under 50% unless it lets you gain information to set up a pre-showdown fold, IMO.

PokerMike

08-07-2005, 01:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Flop equity:

Board: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.0707 % 42.84% 05.23% { A/images/graemlins/heart.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif }
Hand 2: 51.9293 % 46.69% 05.23% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+, AcJd, AcJs, AdJc, AdJs, AsJc, AsJd }

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't this convince you not checkraise the flop?? You shouldn't be playing aggressively when your equity is under 50% unless it lets you gain information to set up a pre-showdown fold, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you about the flop play.

bobbyi

08-07-2005, 02:28 AM

If he has a draw, isn't he going to bet the turn for you if you check? I think checking the turn gets one bet in whether you are ahead or behind. If you bet and call a raise, two bets go in when you are behind but only one when he is on a draw.

sthief09

08-07-2005, 09:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you are going to bet/call the turn, I think you have to fold the river. If you aren't going to fold the river, I'd check call the turn I think.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Reasoning behind the turn donkbet is what Nate explains in this (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1103806&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&fpart=all&vc=1) thread. If none of the draws(straight/flush/AK/AQ/AT etc..) got there on the river, how can i fold this big pot for one bet vs this type of aggro player?

[/ QUOTE ]

what Nate doesn't mention in his post is that you pay 2 bets when he has AQ and he pays 1 bet when he has AK or A9s

krishanleong

08-07-2005, 05:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you are going to bet/call the turn, I think you have to fold the river. If you aren't going to fold the river, I'd check call the turn I think.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Reasoning behind the turn donkbet is what Nate explains in this (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1103806&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&fpart=all&vc=1) thread. If none of the draws(straight/flush/AK/AQ/AT etc..) got there on the river, how can i fold this big pot for one bet vs this type of aggro player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it takes more than a player willing to push draws on the flop to raise a stop and go. I don't mind the stop and go but in my mind, once he raises the turn, the odds that he is on a draw changes significantly. So much so that I think it might be correct to fold the river.

Krishan