After 5 bad beat OTMs in 6 games... (wimpy tilt)

[45suited]

This hand occurred after losing on the bubble with pair over pair or dominating aces 5 times in 6 games.

After folding this, I realize I need to shut it down for the day... You can't play good poker when you EXPECT to lose with the better hand.

I figured that with me as the bigstack with two smallish stacks, I gave villain credit for a stronger hand since he was pushing UTG when he didn't have to. Can this fold be justified since I continued to steal blinds myself after this hand with my large stack? Still, I felt ashamed for folding, since part of the reason I folded (honestly) was that I was expecting to lose the race.

Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 5: Gypo255 ( $1495 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $3265 )
Seat 7: MrFunbags ( $2195 )
Seat 8: trg49 ( $1045 )

Blinds(150/300)

Dealt to HERO [ Ad Ks ]
MrFunbags is all-In [2195]
trg49 folds.
Gypo255 folds.

HERO will be using his time bank for this hand.
HERO folds.
MrFunbags does not show cards.
MrFunbags wins 2645 chips

I felt dirty after this hand. Ever just want an ITM so bad that you've made a wuss play like this?

Flames are not necessary... but go ahead anyway. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Isura]

I don't hate the fold, and it's pretty close either way. If you fold this, he'll have over 2600 and you'll be pushing into his small/big blind which is not going to be pleasant either. You're not in a good enough position to steal freely from the other short stacks anyways, so I might call here. But with 10bb, I think folding might be more correct.

Edit: I'm pretty sure you need QQ+ here to call against a reasoable utg. With those stakes, you have more than double both short stacks with 10bb.

[45suited]

Thanks Isura. I thought it was close, especially since he raised from UTG when he could have just sat back and played it safe to get ITM. I does feel a little weak folding here, but I didn't want to become the shortstack. Losing every freaking race I've been in today (or so it feels) shouldn't have come into my mind, but damn, I'm human.

BTW, just had my 2nd straight 2nd place finish. Had the guy outchipped 7:1 at various points, all-in with KT, AJ, etc... can't buy a win right now. Oh well, at least I've got an ITM streak going again. Beggers can't be choosers. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Damn you Citanul and you're "how are you running post"! Ever since I responded to that one, I've been Phil Hellmuth... If it wasn't for luck in these damn tournaments, I'd win every one! /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Isura]

THe thing is, you absolutely don't want a race here. I'd only consider calling if villain's push range is such that I will be a significant favorite against atleast 1/2 of his push hands. Getting called and being in a race is much different than calling knowing it's a race. Yeah, the beat's suck. I'm experiencing my first real bad run at the 33s now. Keep at it, correct play will get the money.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
THe thing is, you absolutely don't want a race here. I'd only consider calling if villain's push range is such that I will be a significant favorite against atleast 1/2 of his push hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly my thinking. I'd really hate to run into a PP here.

[citanul]

after only 5 bb otms in 6 games, i usually just prepare for the next week of bb ootms.

citanul

[curtains]

This isn't close at all, its a very very clear call. We have the UTG player outchipped by 1100. Thats the reason this is a clear call. If it were the opposite, it might be a clear fold.

[curtains]

Holy @@^@$#^&#$& I dont have SNG powertools on my new laptop. Time to beg eastbay for an extra code, as for some reason I installed it on my broke ass old laptop.

[45suited]

I'd love to hear what the program says about the hand... but I think due to the fact that UTG didn't have to gamble (due to relative stacksizes) coupled with the fact that the chipleader was in the BB, he would have to be put on a very tight range of hands.

[tigerite]

It's an easy call, even if he's pushing around top 15%

[tigerite]

Nah.. even if he's pushing only top 10% it's a 0.3% +EV call..

[Oluwafemi]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand occurred after losing on the bubble with pair over pair or dominating aces 5 times in 6 games.

After folding this, I realize I need to shut it down for the day... You can't play good poker when you EXPECT to lose with the better hand.

I figured that with me as the bigstack with two smallish stacks, I gave villain credit for a stronger hand since he was pushing UTG when he didn't have to. Can this fold be justified since I continued to steal blinds myself after this hand with my large stack? Still, I felt ashamed for folding, since part of the reason I folded (honestly) was that I was expecting to lose the race.

Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 5: Gypo255 ( $1495 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $3265 )
Seat 7: MrFunbags ( $2195 )
Seat 8: trg49 ( $1045 )

Blinds(150/300)

Dealt to HERO [ Ad Ks ]
MrFunbags is all-In [2195]
trg49 folds.
Gypo255 folds.

HERO will be using his time bank for this hand.
HERO folds.
MrFunbags does not show cards.
MrFunbags wins 2645 chips

I felt dirty after this hand. Ever just want an ITM so bad that you've made a wuss play like this?

Flames are not necessary... but go ahead anyway. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't call it [expecting you'll lose with the better hand]; i call it KNOWING YOU'LL LOSE WITH THE BETTER HAND! i've lost so many crazy hands and SNGs lately where i start naming the cards that's gonna hit on the river, which [by some fluke of nature], happen to just so coincide with villians dominated hand.

keywords:
[ QUOTE ]
i start naming the cards that's gonna hit on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

it makes me think sometimes, "what's the use of trying to even play with some resemblance of skill?"

[tigerite]

This is crazy talk. If it's an EV call you should make it because in the long run that is what makes you money, plain and simple.

[45suited]

Okay, I hear you guys that the call was +EV.

But do these tools take this into account:

That the bubble play in general is so bad (as someone just said people calling with mid pairs in spots where it is -EV), call raises, etc, that sometimes by simply being a little patient, +EV spots can be passed up to greatly reduce variance?

I mean, say I'm put in a spot where calling all my chips off is slightly +EV. These programs don't take into account that fact that I can avoid taking this chance because I can so easily count on one of the other bubble guys doing something totally stupid which will get me ITM.

Just a thought. And I'm only talking about close calls, passing up slightly +EV calls or pushes. Has anyone else thought about this?

I should add that I'm not talking about this particular hand, just passing up marginally +EV pushes on the bubble so that you can allow your opponents to make their gigantically stupid moves a short time later.

[tigerite]

Well if he's pushing even top 15% the +EV rises to 1.3% and I don't think you can pass up that kind of % for anyone. I think that's a reasonable assessment of his pushing range here, too.

Generally speaking, letting go of 0.5% EV is considered to be bad on the bubble, and 0.01% EV when ITM and above.

[curtains]

Definitely possible to pass up close situations because you can steal a lot as big stack. But I usually only do it if I really think its close.

[bennies]

When I put villain on AJ+, 88+ Icm suggests this is a fold. (Calling is minus .3 percent).

Is this too tight a range for villain? Is my Icm playing games with me?

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
Well if he's pushing even top 15% the +EV rises to 1.3% and I don't think you can pass up that kind of % for anyone. I think that's a reasonable assessment of his pushing range here, too.

Generally speaking, letting go of 0.5% EV is considered to be bad on the bubble, and 0.01% EV when ITM and above.

[/ QUOTE ]

A typical player at this level isn't pushing 15% of the time with the big stack in the BB and and two shorter stacks left.

[curtains]

I'm going to be honest that against some people here, folding definitely isn't bad. Once again this is a case of, okay its slight -ev against 88 thru AJ, but its very unlikely that pepole will be TIGHTER than that, whereas they may be MUCH looser. Some people will push A8o there for sure, KQo etc.

But okay, you probably won't be hurting yourself much by folding here.