Hand Reading Question

[bobbyi]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (6 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>

What percentage of the time does SB have a jack here? A nine? Something else?

[tizim]

I'll take a guess. Without reads:

9x or 44: 45%
Jx: 50%
Flush draw or something else : 5%

[Entity]

This bet seems to be a heart draw or picked up straight draw fairly often from my observation. Sometimes it's also a bare 4 that doesn't want the turn to get checked through; it's rarely a 9 from my experience.

Rob

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll take a guess. Without reads:

9x or 44: 45%
Jx: 50%
Flush draw or something else : 5%

[/ QUOTE ]

I would guess that it is opposite.

Jack: 35%
Four: 15%
Flush or Straight Draw: 40%
Monster: 10%

Something around there.

Brad

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'll take a guess. Without reads:

9x or 44: 45%
Jx: 50%
Flush draw or something else : 5%

[/ QUOTE ]

I would guess that it is opposite.

Jack: 35%
Four: 15%
Flush or Straight Draw: 40%
Monster: 10%

Something around there.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd lower the Jack possibility and increase the 4 or draw possibility, but I think that's pretty close to accurate.

Rob

[tizim]

[ QUOTE ]
This bet seems to be a heart draw or picked up straight draw fairly often from my observation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heads up, this is a picked up draw quite often. But, I don't often see players semibluff lead into 3 players when they pick up a draw.

[ QUOTE ]
Sometimes it's also a bare 4 that doesn't want the turn to get checked through; it's rarely a 9 from my experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually completely neglected the possibility Villain could have a 4. I seem to do this a lot when I read hands-- I completely see past a likely hand.

Anyway, I think a 9 or 44 is quite likely here. Maybe not as much as 45% of the time, but there are more combos of 9x/44 than Jx, and Villain is in a predicament because if he raises anywhere, he knocks out much of the field, which increases the possibility he'd play a monster this way.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This bet seems to be a heart draw or picked up straight draw fairly often from my observation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heads up, this is a picked up draw quite often. But, I don't often see players semibluff lead into 3 players when they pick up a draw.

[ QUOTE ]
Sometimes it's also a bare 4 that doesn't want the turn to get checked through; it's rarely a 9 from my experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually completely neglected the possibility Villain could have a 4. I seem to do this a lot when I read hands-- I completely see past a likely hand.

Anyway, I think a 9 or 44 is quite likely here. Maybe not as much as 45% of the time, but there are more combos of 9x/44 than Jx, and Villain is in a predicament because if he raises anywhere, he knocks out much of the field, which increases the possibility he'd play a monster this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll put it this way: in the last 20k hands I've played at 6-max, I can't remember this being a 9 or 44 in recent memory when bet by a non-TAG. I can count at least a dozen times today (2k hands) this exact play was a pair on the flop that check-called, or was a draw picked up on the turn, or was a complete bluff, or was a turned pair.

I could post them if I needed to but it's mostly from memory. You are folding way too often on the turn in this game if you're estimating their hands to be as strong as you are.

Rob

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This bet seems to be a heart draw or picked up straight draw fairly often from my observation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heads up, this is a picked up draw quite often. But, I don't often see players semibluff lead into 3 players when they pick up a draw.

[ QUOTE ]
Sometimes it's also a bare 4 that doesn't want the turn to get checked through; it's rarely a 9 from my experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually completely neglected the possibility Villain could have a 4. I seem to do this a lot when I read hands-- I completely see past a likely hand.

Anyway, I think a 9 or 44 is quite likely here. Maybe not as much as 45% of the time, but there are more combos of 9x/44 than Jx, and Villain is in a predicament because if he raises anywhere, he knocks out much of the field, which increases the possibility he'd play a monster this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll put it this way: in the last 20k hands I've played at 6-max, I can't remember this being a 9 or 44 in recent memory when bet by a non-TAG. I can count at least a dozen times today (2k hands) this exact play was a pair on the flop that check-called, or was a draw picked up on the turn, or was a complete bluff, or was a turned pair.

I could post them if I needed to but it's mostly from memory. You are folding way too often on the turn in this game if you're estimating their hands to be as strong as you are.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding never crossed my mind personally when reading it -- fairly sure whether we should call or raise. If our raise gets 3bet, we're in deep trouble a large majority of the time.

[tizim]

What's the average 5/10er's line w/ 44 or 9x here then?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
What's the average 5/10er's line w/ 44 or 9x here then?

[/ QUOTE ]

Checkraise. Like, always. The average 5/10er is not good nor creative.

Rob

[sthief09]

maybe I'm being weak-tight, but I think he's got a J or hearts often enough that I want to raise, and if he 3-bets often enough that I want to call, but because of those two things I want to just call

[sthief09]

in live play this is a 9 like 80% of the time

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
in live play this is a 9 like 80% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering, I dont think its a bad play here as well if he has a nine.

[krishanleong]

If you were playing me, I'd likely have a 9. I think you are ahead here a lot.

Krishan

[oreogod]

Just out of curiosity...whats the take for the turn action?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
in live play this is a 9 like 80% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I agree. The same goes for if you're playing a decent or somewhat tricky player online. But it's nowhere near that if you're playing an average 10/20 player.

In a lot of situations I take a call/call or a call/raise river line in these hands. If I've seen a lot of this villain betting draws and checkfolding the river, then I'm raising the turn.

Rob

[me454555]

This is a terrible question to ask w/out more info. You've given us no information about the type of player sb is and you've given us no information about what BB and UTG did before you.

Assuming bb and utg call along, I raise this turn and see how he reacts. If he 3 bets I think you can toss it.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
You've given us no information about the type of player sb is

[/ QUOTE ]
I gave you the information that was available to me at the time.

[ QUOTE ]
you've given us no information about what BB and UTG did before you.

[/ QUOTE ]
This has almost no bearing on the question.

[Entity]

In my last post, when I said "average 10/20 player," I meant "average 5/10 player."

[wackjob]

I prefer to call here and raise the river if it is a blank. I'd rather get another bluff bet into me on the river.

[me454555]

The actions of bb and utg have a huge bearing on the hand. If BB raises and UTG 3 bets, I'd say its much less likely sb has a 9. If even one of them raises, its less likely that sb has a 9. If they both fold, its more likely he has a 9. It also changes the way you play the rest of the hand if they call vs if they fold. In order to make the best assessment of Sb's hand and advise you of how to play the turn, this info is needed.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
It also changes the way you play the rest of the hand if they call vs if they fold. In order to make the best assessment of Sb's hand and advise you of how to play the turn, this info is needed.

[/ QUOTE ]
Obviously how they act has a bearing on the distribution of cards and what I do on the turn. My point was that that it has nothing to do with the topic of the thread which is what sort of hands a typical 5/10 player check-calls on this flop and then bets out on the turn.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
If you were playing me, I'd likely have a 9.

[/ QUOTE ]
Interesting. I can't see myself playing a 9 this way. I'm pretty sure that betting the flop is better.

[7ontheline]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you were playing me, I'd likely have a 9.

[/ QUOTE ]
Interesting. I can't see myself playing a 9 this way. I'm pretty sure that betting the flop is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you explain your reasoning behind the turn donk-bet if you have a 9? I'm curious.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you were playing me, I'd likely have a 9.

[/ QUOTE ]
Interesting. I can't see myself playing a 9 this way. I'm pretty sure that betting the flop is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you explain your reasoning behind the turn donk-bet if you have a 9? I'm curious.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this directed at Krish and not at me whom you just quoted? I was saying I don't like the check-call flop, dbet turn line and would lead the flop instead.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you were playing me, I'd likely have a 9.

[/ QUOTE ]
Interesting. I can't see myself playing a 9 this way. I'm pretty sure that betting the flop is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you explain your reasoning behind the turn donk-bet if you have a 9? I'm curious.

[/ QUOTE ]


if you bet, no one will put you on a 9. no one's dumb enough to bet out with a 9 right? so you get 3 callers and the PFR raises because no one's dumb enough to bet a 9.

then you call and bet the turn. no reason to 3-bet and chase everyone out. trap them in the pot. so you lead the turn, and once again, no one's dumb enough to bet-call then bet with a 9, so 1 or 2 of them call. then the preflop raiser, if he has AA, probably gets scared and just calls. so you miss a bet from him but that's ok. then you lead the river again and they pay off.

[sthief09]

I think the % is in the low-middle range, like 25, so we need to see the action. if it gets raised I think I'm done because it's a legitimate parlay since the SB very well might have a 9. if there are two callers I'm probably more tempted to raise. if it's headsup I let him keep at it

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
in live play this is a 9 like 80% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering, I dont think its a bad play here as well if he has a nine.

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't know why I wrote that. I just thought it was important to note that people really do play a 9 like that.

the turn bet given the flop action is ok, but a 9 really should bet the flop. that's such a great spot to be in

[me454555]

Thats the line I would take

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the % is in the low-middle range, like 25, so we need to see the action. if it gets raised I think I'm done because it's a legitimate parlay since the SB very well might have a 9. if there are two callers I'm probably more tempted to raise. if it's headsup I let him keep at it

[/ QUOTE ]
This was exactly my thinking as well. The actual result was that he bet and the other guys folded, so I just called and called again on a blank river. He had JTo and MHIG. I definitely would have raised if anyone called in between. I'm still unsure if I should have raised the turn even heads up (I think raising turn is much better than raising river because he could have a draw and he may check a worse hand on the river).

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
What percentage of the time does SB have a jack here? A nine? Something else?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd say...
Jack: 80%
Nine: 15%
Else: 5%

[wheelz]

I think you should raise the turn because:

-if he has a 9 and 3-bets, you'll fold, and lose the same amount
-if he has the flush draw you'll charge him the max
-if he has a worse jack you get more from him... although theoretically you'd get the same from him by raising the river, if a Q/K/A falls you might not want to raise yourself, or he might not pay off, or he might not bet the river even if a blank falls
-yes he may be bluffing, but I don't think he bets into all those players without a decent hand very often, so I'm not too worried about allowing him to fold a worse hand