Probability of flopping set in Omaha

[SlickRick]

What's the probablility of flopping a set in Omaha if you only hold one pair and neither of the two other cards duplicate your pair. Say take AA76 for example. Thanks.

[DPCondit]

The probability of not flopping a set is 46/48 * 45/47 * 44/46, so you should flop a set slightly more than 12% of the time or slightly worse than 7 to 1 against.

Don

[Ray Zee]

yea, DP is right but you must and everyone needs to consider that when looking for something like this you need to look at what you may be against.

with AA and a few tight players in you can be pretty sure you are looking for the case ace or none available at all.

same with big pairs with multiway good players. you arent going to hit your set too often as they have at least one of them in their hands. and if you do they are going to have a draw thats about equal to what you have.

small sets hit more often with multiway action but win only against fools and drunks.

one always needs to know the probabilities but more important is how to apply them to the situation you are in.