early hand

[SossMan]

$20 MTT Stars

Don't have the HH but i think the details are pretty close to accurate.


I have 78s in the BB. 1st round. I have t2200. Villian in MP has t3000. MP doubled w/ QQ all in preflop vs. TT. others have around their starting stacks.

MP opens for t60. Button, SB and I all call.

Flop 662r. checked to villian, he bets t150, I call.

I bet out 225 on the turn Q. MP minraises, I call.

6 on the river.

Pot is t1290. I have t1440. I push.

Thoughts on the river push v. value bet?

[durron597]

I put MP on a medium-high PP (88-JJ). I don't think he calls a push, but he will call a valuebet.

[daryn]

so you have 78s, 8 high?

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I put MP on a medium-high PP (88-JJ). I don't think he calls a push, but he will call a valuebet.

[/ QUOTE ]

you think he raises the turn Q when i donk bet him w/ a med pair? He didn't warrant any particular crazy label so far.

[ekky]

MP has chips to burn after doubling up early, and his min-raise on turn generally indicates a willing-ness to go to showdown..so if you botched the HH and actually had quads.. I think the all-in gets called most times.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
so you have 78s, 8 high?

[/ QUOTE ]
haha, make that 67s.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
MP has chips to burn after doubling up early, and his min-raise on turn generally indicates a willing-ness to go to showdown..so if you botched the HH and actually had quads.. I think the all-in gets called most times.

[/ QUOTE ]

details, details...yes, i had quads.

[adanthar]

lol...I was gonna say that's the line I take if I actually *have* quads. nh.

[ekky]

thought as much. I prefer the jam to a value bet. If a value bet gets called 100% and the Jam gets called 50% of the time.... your value bet would need to be 720 to make it EV neutral.. so might as well go on and push.

I think given the action he calls a lot more then 50% to a Jam anyway..so shove in Sir

[locutus2002]

I'd value bet at T650.

Villain is getting 3:1 to look you up and will probably do so most of the time since it's so unbelievable for you to have the 6.

I think the most important thing here for villain is what kind of a stack you'll leave him with. If he calls 650 and loses he will still have T1600 very workable. If he calls T1440 and loses he will have T800 (not a great prospect). I think there are alot of hands he'd throw down against a push like 77-JJ and TPGK-- which probably constitute more than 1/2 of his holdings. IMO.

[woodguy]

I like the push.

Its the bet that looks like it wants a call the least.

Either that, or if I think the villian might fold I bet around 1/2 what the villian has left in his stack, which in this case is close enought to push not to matter.

The minraise makes me put him on AA or KK so I push.

Results?

Regards,
Woodguy

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd value bet at T650.

Villain is getting 3:1 to look you up and will probably do so most of the time since it's so unbelievable for you to have the 6.

I think the most important thing here for villain is what kind of a stack you'll leave him with. If he calls 650 and loses he will still have T1600 very workable. If he calls T1440 and loses he will have T800 (not a great prospect). I think there are alot of hands he'd throw down against a push like 77-JJ and TPGK-- which probably constitute more than 1/2 of his holdings. IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

his kicker doesn't matter with the 3rd 6 on board. Q2=AQ.

Do you really think that he raises me on the turn w/ a hand that can't beat a Queen? After he raises, I put him on AA-QQ, AQ, KQ, and maaaaaaaybe QJ. He minraised, it's not like he's not going to get called there very often. I think he has AA/KK there a lot of the time.

Anyway, he had AQ and instacalled.

[locutus2002]

His kicker did matter at the turn to miniraise back.

I don't think he can get away from any Q at the river obviously or any higher pair but their are 30 hands with lower pairs 77-JJ that I could see miniraising with on the turn and tossing to a push.

I'm glad it worked out though. NH! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ClaytonN]

I love the river push. The bet + the minraise indicates at least a queen on villain's part, and possibly an overpair as well.

I've done this a few times, and it definitely works. queens will call thinking a chop at worst (hahah) and overpairs will instacall.

[locutus2002]

You're right though a push is best.

there are more than 30 hands that call here.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
His kicker did matter at the turn to miniraise back.

I don't think he can get away from any Q at the river obviously or any higher pair but their are 30 hands with lower pairs 77-JJ that I could see miniraising with on the turn and tossing to a push.

I'm glad it worked out though. NH! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

you see a minraise on the turn when a BB hand wakes up on the turn betting into the preflop raiser when an overcard hits?
haven't seen that one in a while...

[locutus2002]

I can see miniraising the turn with JJ not believing hero had a 6 or a Q with the intention of folding to a push .

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I can see miniraising the turn with JJ not believing hero had a 6 or a Q

[/ QUOTE ]

There are a few times it's probably +EV to lead out with any two in that spot. One of them is when you are playing KotZ and everyone is gonna fold. Another is when you are betting out so often that it is a good camouflage play.

In general, 99% of the time no normal player is betting out without something that has JJ crushed.