An implied odds hand: 10 outs on the river

[ajmargarine]

Help me with my implied odds here. Should I call the turn bet.

Hero ($72) and villian has him covered.

.50/$1 NLHE Full Table 7-handed

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif . SB posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, 2 limps, Hero limps, Villian in SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4.75) 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
Checks all the way around.

Turn: ($4.75) 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
Villian bets $7, 3 folds, Hero ???

I've played with villian alot. I know villian would have led the flop with a set or a ten in his hand or two pair. Because I have 77, I doubt he has 87 or 73 and made two pair on the turn. I'm about 90% sure he has a straight here and is overbetting to protect against the flush draws. I am pretty sure I stack him (Edit: rather, I double up) if one of my 10 outs hit, especially if no 3 flush comes. Given my stack size, do I have the implied odds to call here?

[foldem]

Why don't you bet the flop when it gets checked to you? If you are certain that he has a made straight then you can call as you only need to make up about $14 on the river if the board pairs for this to be + EV. I don't know if I would be able to lay this down on a blank river though.

[xcrack999]

I would definitely call if I'm sure I can stack him if I fill up. You only have to get a pot-size bet out of him on the river to make this call profitable.

[ajmargarine]

So, because I am 3.6:1 to improve on the river...I take my $7 call x 3.6??? I would need to make about $25 on the river to make this the right play?? What about the current pot size and then factoring in the times that I boat up, but I had a misread and he has a bigger boat? Do these last 2 factors matter much here? (I am 90% confident he has a straight here)

EDIT: Upon further thought, the misread probably would be a neutral factor here. If I did misread him, he's as likely to have junk, as he is to have a bigger set.

[djoyce003]

no...you are a 3.6-1 to win right, so you are calling 7 to win 12 immediately but assuming your FH is the nuts and you can bet the pot on the river which will be around 16, then you are calling 7 to win 28...or 4-1.

[kongo_totte]

The pot is $12, so to make it +EV you'll have to get another $14 out of him if you hit (3.6*7<12+14). Remember, this is if you are sure he has the straight.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
no...you are a 3.6-1 to win right, so you are calling 7 to win 12 immediately but assuming your FH is the nuts and you can bet the pot on the river which will be around 16, then you are calling 7 to win 28...or 4-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK...light's coming on a little bit, very little. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I am 3.6:1 to improve here. I am making a $7 call.

$7 x 3.6 = $25.20. I would need to make that much for this call to be neutral EV? He has already put in $7, so I need $18.20 more on the river to make this play?? Or is it only $13.45 on the river because of the $4.75 in the pot already?

[djoyce003]

it's 14 because there is already money in the pot...that counts too, your immediate odds stink but your implied odds are great because he'll call at least a pot sized bet if the board pairs, and he'll likely call a push.

[thatpfunk]

If he is that scared of the flush I would say you have ~22 outs plus the chance you could be good.

[ajmargarine]

OK, thanks for the comments guys. This is actually a half-way decent hand to illustrate implied odds IMO.

Results: I called. River brought the 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, Villian led for $20, I pushed, he called. He did have a straight and I doubled up.