Making a move preflop with 99 on the first hand

[TheNoodleMan]

***** Hand History for Game 2480804221 *****
Converter is acting up,

NL Texas Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee

Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 9: MrGolferPop ( $800 )
Seat 10: <font color="red">HERO </font> ( $800 )
Seat 7: Mnike25 ( $800 )
Seat 1: lowphatmilk ( $800 )
Seat 5: giuann ( $800 )
Seat 6: Danswa ( $800 )
Seat 8: MRBILLYOUNG ( $800 )
Seat 2: LOUKAS444 ( $800 )
Seat 4: tsnak ( $800 )
Seat 3: midsaint ( $800 )
Trny:14560596 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to <font color="red"> HERO </font> [ 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif ]
LOUKAS444 folds.
midsaint calls [15].
tsnak folds.
giuann calls [15].
Danswa calls [15].
Mnike25 raises [30].
MRBILLYOUNG calls [30].
MrGolferPop folds.
<font color="red">HERO </font> calls [20].
lowphatmilk folds.
midsaint calls [15].
giuann calls [15].
Danswa raises [160].
Mnike25 folds.
MRBILLYOUNG folds.
<font color="red">HERO ???</font>
<font color="blue"> My thinking is that I am likely ahead. Danswa was the 3rd limper into the pot, which would be a very unusual way to play any pair that is ahead of me. It seems like he is making a move on me. The remaining players sandwiched between us are of no real concern, if they had a hand, they would have limited the field when they had the chance. I figure that I am at least on the right side of a coinflip, and possibly way ahead. His line thus far screams of either a smaller pair or a weakish ace. Do I push all my chips in here and try to grab the t340 that is sitting out there? I know its a high risk move to put my tourney on the line with only 99, but this seems like a great spot. Any thoughts?</font>

[tigerite]

No. Bin it.

[gumpzilla]

If you trust in your read, then go for it. I think your read is probably pretty realistic, though it doesn't seem impossible to me for him to be playing AA this way.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
No. Bin it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I saw this happen last night. 77 pushed into AA in this exact situation. I just don't like it. You're behind or in a coinflip too often.

But if you want to practice your reads ... this is a good place to do it.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I saw this happen last night. 77 pushed into AA in this exact situation. I just don't like it. You're behind or in a coinflip too often.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the dead money in the pot, a coinflip (which we'll be on the better side of) is far from a disaster here. I think it's a perfectly fine outcome, though obviously not the best, if he flips over AQ. Take into account that he probably folds sometimes as well, and will occasionally even call with silly things like 66-88, and it looks pretty good. It all hinges, obviously, on the original read that he doesn't have a big pair.

I muck and move on. Too great of a chance that he's sitting on a bigger pair to risk my tournament life.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
No. Bin it.

[/ QUOTE ]

assuming "bin it" means fold, i agree.

[TheNoodleMan]

[ QUOTE ]
If you trust in your read, then go for it. I think your read is probably pretty realistic, though it doesn't seem impossible to me for him to be playing AA this way.

[/ QUOTE ]
I felt really strong about the read, trusted my instincts and pushed all in. Villain used nearly all of his time bank before folding.
His betting pattern just didn't seem right. This is by far the weakest hand that I have ever pushed pre-folp in level one, and it was entirely based on my read.