Aces.

[kongo_totte]

Villian is 30/5 after 20 hands, so no real read.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP3 ($123.70)
CO ($98.07)
Button ($44.50)
SB ($46.75)
BB ($48.45)
Hero ($53.75)
UTG+1 ($50.50)
UTG+2 ($23)
MP1 ($53.15)
MP2 ($57.45)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, CO calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($4.75) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $15</font>,

I must fold this right?

[Macedon]

It would pretty remarkable/unlikely if he had just AQ.
AK of clubs is a possibility, but I don't think so.
I would think you are beat.

Preflop I would have bet $3-4 UTG. $2 is too weak. You are inviting medium pairs to farm for sets.

[djoyce003]

I lean towards no. The flop raise means top pair more often than it means a set and two pair is not likely here. He could be raising something like KQ or AQ and is afraid of the flush. I'd call, and lead a non-club turn. He he raises you again I would probably dump it.

[imported_anacardo]

[ QUOTE ]
I lean towards no. The flop raise means top pair more often than it means a set and two pair is not likely here. He could be raising something like KQ or AQ and is afraid of the flush. I'd call, and lead a non-club turn. He he raises you again I would probably dump it.

[/ QUOTE ]

[MTBlue]

Read dependent. Aggression Factor would be nice to know.

[kongo_totte]

He is pretty new to me as I said.

I don't like calling. Pot will be $35, and I'll have $40 left OOP. And I'll have no idea which cards help him and which don't. Basically, no turn cards will make my decision any easier. So it's push or fold IMO.

A push will likely win me the money in the pot cause he is unlikely to call with anything I beat. However, when I lose, it's my stack.

[Macedon]

Calling is terrible.

What are you going to do if you call (flop) and lead the turn (as recommended) and he calls? Then what's your river plan? You don't want to be in this position.

Or what if you lead the turn and he mini-raises you?
Do you call? You don't want to be in this position either.

All-in or Fold.

[MTBlue]

The problem is this hand is completely read dependent. Some players will never raise top pair or a flush draw and only raise their sets. Others will raise this flop with nothing or top pair/ an underpair figuring you for AK. I call the raise and open push all turns except for the top of board pairing. I know you think you can't get called by anything worse but the guy can't see your hole cards, so he will think something like AQ/KQ is the best hand.

[MTBlue]

Calling isn't that terrible. Hero could three-bet the flop or stop n go the turn. I think both plays are about the same EV. Slightly more imo for the turn push b/c in my experience people seem to think the turn push is in general a bluff. I don't think hero can avoid stacking off to a set on this board. If he calls the flop raise as he pointed out he has $40 left in a $35 dollar pot. He is pot committed and all-in on the turn keeps him from being min-raised or any way donked. Calling or raising all-in has the same effect.

[swolfe]

if you're as tight as i think you are, then he knows that you're raising only AA-QQ, maybe AK/JJ from UTG. if this is true and i knew it, i'd raise the flop against you with any two because i know it'd make you feel uncomfortable and likely lay down either here or to a turn bet.

he probably has a flush draw, maybe 76/images/graemlins/club.gif...i'd do a SNG with a full pot turn bet. if he raises (or calls) then you can be done with the hand.

EDIT: actually, i just saw stack sizes. so the turn bet would have to be a push. i might push a non-club turn, and check-fold a club...

[jonnyUCB]

this is horribly tough to lay down. Im not as opposed to calling as others are... though i know the gross feeling of putting 1/3 of your stack in just to fold to a big bet. What I like about calling is they know what you have (unless they put you on a flush draw).. which isn't as bad as it sounds. I might have to call down here or maybe throw out a river blocker/push.

Your action depends on what this villian calls gun raises with. Barring reads, I could put a 30/5 party donk on QA or worse here.. I'd try to get the money in by the river.

[kongo_totte]

As I have said, villian can't know really anything about me. I still don't like calling (and pushing a non-club turn):

If I decide to continue with the hand I hope he has either a flush draw/straight flush draw (I make a mistake by calling the flop)or A Q. If I call and the turn is a club, he either has me beat or is 50% to have the nut flush draw. If I check (intending to fold), he can:
A) Take a free card for the flush (hence I am making a mistake)
B) Push with TPTK and the nut flush draw

Even if the turn clubs he is very likely to push with TPTK+nut flush draw IMO. Still think it's a fold or push.

[jonnyUCB]

so you think he'll pay off a 3-bet push with anything less than a set?

I think a delayed push makes more of AQ.. JMO, though.

[djoyce003]

why do you think it's a fold or push only. If you push tptk plus flush draw calls you. If you call and pot the non-club turn you have way more fold equity and his call is much more -ev than it was on the flop. I really think you are ahead here and there is no way you can fold this here...if you think its fold or push, you have to push, I just like waiting till the turn but that's probably semantics. I'm not folding AA headsup on this board because a lot of hands that call your preflop raise have a queen in them....i think putting him on only a set here is crazy. I think a flush draw or top pair is at least as likely as a set and maybe more so, given the money in the pot you have to call or push at LEAST, folding IMO is terrible.

Had similar situation in live B&amp;M last night.

2 red Aces for me with flop of K /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I lead out for $70 best into $120 pot and get min-raised. This is one of those "when to let go of aces" situations. I call the raise and villain leads out after 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif shows on turn for $200. River comes 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and villain leads out for $300. I just couldn't put him on a 4 and called. Busted flush (J - 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif) draw.

Villain was also fairly new to table, but younger/aggressive player and this play fit the mold. I played a hand against him a week ago where he raised to $20 ($3-5 blinds) in Big Blind w/ K-Qo!!!! I had A-Q with Queen high board on that one, good for $225 /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Player read is very important, but I would think on that flop your Aces were still good. Certainly thinking it through and being prepared for Turn betting is important before deciding to call/raise/fold. If you think you're best and he's drawing, push here is the play.

[TheWorstPlayer]

$2 is fine preflop. Yes, this is probably a fold without a read.

[foldem]

If you are going to check fold a club on the turn and otherwise push you are much better off three betting all in on the flop. This should be obvious since you charge him to draw if he does have a flush draw and are going to go broke against a better hand anyway. You also have the added benefit of not allowing your opponent to push you off the best hand on the turn.

[Malachii]

This would be a great line if Hero had more behind. Unfortunately, he only has 50$... so if he calls the raise and then leads the turn for 15$, he's already put in 3/5ths of his stack. He can't call this flop and then lead the turn.

I fold and wait for a better spot.

[kongo_totte]

I really think I should fold this since none of the alternatives call or push seem pretty good. Basically, I win $19 or lose $46.

Anyway, in the heat of the moment I pushed and he insta-calls. I weap and he shows QQ. MHING.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Yup. Big raise -&gt; One pair -&gt; Fold.

[-Skeme-]

PT notes after 20 hands are useless.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
PT notes after 20 hands are useless.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never said they weren't.

[ QUOTE ]
PT notes after 20 hands are useless.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously the more hands the better, but how many hands for a certain villain do you like to have before you start to trust the stats??

[TheWorstPlayer]

Some stats converge more quickly than others. If someone plays every hand for 20 hands, it is unlikely that they have a true VPIP of 15% and are just on a huge rush. It is more likely that their VPIP is truly 75-100. On the other hand, if someone plays 4 hands out of their first 20 and never goes to showdown, it is unlikely that their true WSD% is 0%. It could easily be even something like 50% and they are just not hitting flops at all or whatever in those few hands they played.

[djoyce003]

i'd agree...once someone has played 20 hands if their VPIP is tracking around 80 there is almost no way that they are a true 30....they will likely hover between 70 and 80....the other stats IMO take much longer to be meaningful but I find this one is generally pretty accurate pretty quickly.

If their VPIP is 0% after 20 hands this isn't as meaningful IMO as one that is 80 after 20.....although it's fair to assume that they are relatively tight and aren't a total fish..especially if they fold their SB....most fish always limp in no matter what two cards they have.

I want to preface any advice contained in this post with the fact that I have been faced with a similar situation twice in my past two sessions. Each time I bungled the situation and lost my stack to a guy who flopped a monster. So, grain of salt.

This is how I see it. Our options are fold, push, or call. The villain has one of the following:

Top pair
Two pair or a set
A flush draw
A (relatively ballsy) bluff

The villain made a pretty strong raise into a preflop raiser who continued the action, so personally I think two pair/set is more likely. So I would assign the probabilities of the hands as follows (totally subjective):

Top pair --------------------15%
Two pair/set ----------------60%
Flush draw ------------------20%
Bluff -----------------------5%

So were does that leave us:

Top Pair -- We win approx 80% -- 12% (15*.8)
Two pair/set -- we win approx 8% -- 5%(60*.08)
Flush Draw -- we win approx 65% -- 13%*(20*.65)
Bluff -- we win approx 100% -- 5%

So we have a 35% chance to win (approx 2 to 1).

Given this I don't think pushing is correct. If he auto-called no matter what his holding, this is a negative play. Factor in the fact that he will most likely only call with hands we are not currently beating, we lose our stack if he has something or win nothing more than what is currently in the pot if he doesn't.

To call we need to put $11 more in $23.75 pot. This is a little better to 2 to 1, so calling is close. Calling has the benefit of not appearing too weak to observant opponents who may try to make a move later and gives us the opportunity to gather more information. If it is a call, I prefer checking into the villain who may take the free card (flush draw) which allows us to define his exact holding. I think a push on the turn to a non-club still has the same problems as a push on the flop.

The problem with calling is that most times the villain will make another big bet, which really doesn't give us any more information other than a flush draw is a little less likely.

So overall, I say fold like a little girl. However, based on the last two times, I say WOW ACES! I BET IT ALL!

[elus2]

[ QUOTE ]
To call we need to put $11 more in $23.75 pot. This is a little better to 2 to 1, so calling is close.

[/ QUOTE ]

the call just prices us to see 1 card, not 2. i don't like a flop push either since it allows him to fold the only hand of his we beat. i'd rather let him overplay tptk on the turn.

[elus2]

without a read it's not an awful fold. since we're out of position the variables i'd like to know are:

how often does villain commit himself on the turn with a pair
how often does villain put out another semibluff with a club draw/combo-draw
how often does villain fire with air

those conditions need to occur frequently enough to make calling the flop profitable. then we would let villain commit himself on the turn. pushing the flop definitely isn't +ev since we fold out the hands that we beat except for flush draws. he makes up for that mistake on those occasions that he calls with a set and two pair.

[rikz]

V's hands |~EV |p(V)|~EV*p(V)
TPTK (AQ) |0.87|0.25|0.2175
set-QQ8866|0.09|0.30|0.0270
oesfd-7c9c|0.44|0.10|0.0440
fd&amp;pr-7c6c|0.48|0.10|0.0480
fdonlyAcXc|0.63|0.25|0.1575
Total est. EV at flop ~ 0.494.

You're behind a pair with a flush draw, an oesfd, and any set. I think any move other than a fold will probably pot commit you, so unless you put villain on higher probabilities of having just TPTK, a pure flush draw, or a pure bluff, then a fold is probably good. If you have a read on villain as being much more likely to have a set here than 30% of the time that he makes this move, then it would be a clear fold. You lose $6 and wait for a better hand to play for all your chips.

[kurto]

I think this is an easy fold UNLESS you have a read knowing specifically he will do this with a draw or merely top pair. 9 times out of ten (at these levels, at least) that's a set.

And I don't agree with the person who tells you to raise more. If your standard open is 4xbb, then you don't change it because you have a better hand. You don't want to give away information.

The easiest players to beat are the ones who raise more with Aces or Kings because everyone at the table knows what you have.