protecting a lucky run

[MadMat]

Newbie to blackjack whoring here,

I've just a a good run at sporting bet casino, deposited $50 for $100 bonus, and am now sitting on $250 with $1000 of the WR still to go. (I've been flat betting $3 so far)

Whats the best way to ensure I keep most of that, should I carry on with the $3 flat bets, or drop to $2 or even grind it out at $1???

Or would the experienced whores out there suggest increasing betsize and trying for a really big score while I'm playing on the casinos money ;-)

Mat

[Ortho]

When I hit such upward variance that I'm looking at what is a huge score for me that it'll trump whatever hourly rate I could make on any other stuff that I've got going on, I lower my stake to the minimum and grind it out.

These are choices that you'll have to make, but ultimately the lower the stake, the less you can expect to lose (or win, but that's not your concern here) due to variance. I think $150 is worth spending a few extra hours to protect, so I'd grind it at $1. Others might not find it worth their time.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
Newbie to blackjack whoring here,

I've just a a good run at sporting bet casino, deposited $50 for $100 bonus, and am now sitting on $250 with $1000 of the WR still to go. (I've been flat betting $3 so far)

Whats the best way to ensure I keep most of that, should I carry on with the $3 flat bets, or drop to $2 or even grind it out at $1???

Or would the experienced whores out there suggest increasing betsize and trying for a really big score while I'm playing on the casinos money ;-)

Mat

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume there's a logical reason behind the $3 bet size you chose to begin with -- stick with it.

There is no difference between the $100 bonus you were given initially and the $150 you won on top of that. Either way, it is your money until the casino wins it back. What you're doing is creative money management.

[Ortho]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Newbie to blackjack whoring here,

I've just a a good run at sporting bet casino, deposited $50 for $100 bonus, and am now sitting on $250 with $1000 of the WR still to go. (I've been flat betting $3 so far)

Whats the best way to ensure I keep most of that, should I carry on with the $3 flat bets, or drop to $2 or even grind it out at $1???

Or would the experienced whores out there suggest increasing betsize and trying for a really big score while I'm playing on the casinos money ;-)

Mat

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume there's a logical reason behind the $3 bet size you chose to begin with -- stick with it.

There is no difference between the $100 bonus you were given initially and the $150 you won on top of that. Either way, it is your money until the casino wins it back. What you're doing is creative money management.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you elaborate on this a bit, Homer? My assumption (which could be completely wrong, of course) would be that the OP picked a betting amount per hand that would finish the bonus in a reasonable amount of time while limiting his risk of ruin. ISTM that after he finds himself in a different situation these assumptions could change. However, I do understand that I was advocating a strategy that wouldn't run his wins as much as possible to balance out the times when he starts with $3 bets and loses quickly.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Newbie to blackjack whoring here,

I've just a a good run at sporting bet casino, deposited $50 for $100 bonus, and am now sitting on $250 with $1000 of the WR still to go. (I've been flat betting $3 so far)

Whats the best way to ensure I keep most of that, should I carry on with the $3 flat bets, or drop to $2 or even grind it out at $1???

Or would the experienced whores out there suggest increasing betsize and trying for a really big score while I'm playing on the casinos money ;-)

Mat

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume there's a logical reason behind the $3 bet size you chose to begin with -- stick with it.

There is no difference between the $100 bonus you were given initially and the $150 you won on top of that. Either way, it is your money until the casino wins it back. What you're doing is creative money management.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you elaborate on this a bit, Homer? My assumption (which could be completely wrong, of course) would be that the OP picked a betting amount per hand that would finish the bonus in a reasonable amount of time while limiting his risk of ruin. ISTM that after he finds himself in a different situation these assumptions could change. However, I do understand that I was advocating a strategy that wouldn't run his wins as much as possible to balance out the times when he starts with $3 bets and loses quickly.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I'm saying is that he shouldn't mentally separate the bonus money from winnings due to gameplay. Once the bonus money is granted, it is his, just like any other money.

I also assumed that he picked a bet size based on his bankroll, risk tolerance, etc. If anything, he should raise his bet size since ever so slightly since his bankroll has increased by $150. Lowering to a $1 bet size doesn't make sense to me. If he is going to now bet $1/hand, why wasn't he doing that from the get go?

[Ortho]

[ QUOTE ]
If he is going to now bet $1/hand, why wasn't he doing that from the get go?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry, this is absolutely right and makes perfect sense. I had my "no-risk" hat on and wasn't paying attention. With a "risk" bonus, what you are saying makes perfect sense. It was simply a case of me, brain half-turned on, trying to turn the original question into something that I was wondering about (the "bet big and lower bet size after an updraft in a no-risk bonus because your initial bankroll is short but you want to lengthen it after a win" question, that the op didn't ask). /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[MadMat]

I picked $3 as an amount I thought would clear the $2050 in a reasonable amount of time without going bust!

at that time I had $50 of my own money plus $100 uncleared bonus

I now have $150 cashable according to the cashier screen, with $100 left to release which will take another $1000 of wagering.

$150 being about 25% of my bankroll at this stage! This is the first time in 6 or 7 BJ whoring attempts that I've seen a significant upswing, all the others I've ended roughly on or below EV.

Was just wondering if I should do anything different!

Mat

[hogua]

Bet size won't impact your EV. It will impact your variance and the amount of time required to complete the WR.

If you want to cash out as close to EV (based on current balance and remaining WR), make the smallest bets allowed. However, keep in mind that doing so will add to the time required to complete the WR.

I agree with Homer. There was a reason you chose $3 bets to start with, so, unless your bankroll took a hit somewhere else, I see no reason to decrease your bet size. If anything, consider increasing it.

As long as you bankroll is large enough to absorb the variance that comes with your bet size (and game being played), you really should not fear variance. If you are afraid of it, then your roll (or your comfort level) is too small to support the limit you're playing.

Remeber, it's just variance.

[GrannyMae]

I now have $150 cashable

don't drop below this tring to clear the other part.

[krimson]

I don't completely agree with Homer's thinking. More money is at stake now and that changes the parameters used to calculate bet size.

Essentially choosing a bet size is some calculation of your value of risk of ruin compared to time spent.

Someone who values a low risk of ruin will typically lower their bet size as the amount of money available to be lost has increased.

Therefore his thinking to reduce bet size, especially if he has a high value of risk of ruin (ie: $100 is a lot of money to his bankroll) would be correct(ish).

I do however agree with Homer that he should be increasing bet size. Lowering bet size is good for nothing more than reducing variance. EV does not change with bet size so increasing bet size and decreasing time spent is +ev because more casinos can be done in the same amount of time.

[MadMat]

FWIW I went with Homers Advice an stuck with my $3 flat bets, completed the WR and cashed out $314 from my initial deposit of $50

Not a bad couple of hours work at all /images/graemlins/grin.gif

And I'm no maths whizz, but I'll bet it's a long time till I see that sort of positive variance again!

Thanks for the good advice Homer! (and everyone else that chipped in on this thread)

Mat

[Homer]

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And I'm no maths whizz, but I'll bet it's a long time till I see that sort of positive variance again!

[/ QUOTE ]

It's almost exactly a +2 SD event...it was about a 1 in 50 shot for you to do that well (or better).

Congrats.

-- Homer