What to do when pot odds are only slightly -EV.

[kleos]

Best example I can think of is if I'm getting 4:1 on the river for a 4 flush in TX HE is this really really -EV, dont think about doing it. Even under optimal conditions like I have the A and the board is un-paired?

I always hear that you can take some -EV for a large pot, is there a BB amount that would make it large enough? would double my average pot (as told by pokertracker be sufficient)?

Would implied odds apply that: If I do hit, there is say a 75% chance I can get enough bets while I'm now the best hand and not worried about odds, to have given me the right odds to call the turn?

[kleos]

I just realized I made it a . and not a ? in the subject itself. I'm a tard, sorry.

[SheridanCat]

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Best example I can think of is if I'm getting 4:1 on the river for a 4 flush in TX HE is this really really -EV, dont think about doing it. Even under optimal conditions like I have the A and the board is un-paired?


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Let's build a scenario. You have A/images/graemlins/club.gif9/images/graemlins/club.gif in MP and you limp (hoping for other limpers), all fold to SB who completes and BB checks. Not a great outcome for you.

Pot: 3 small bets

Flop: T/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)

Check, bet, you call, fold

Pot: 5 small bets

Turn: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)

bet...

So, after the turn you are about 4:1 to make your flush and you're getting 3.5:1 from the pot. It's to you, you will close the action with whatever you do.

So do you press on into this tiny pot? The aces may also be outs, so you may be getting a bit better than 4:1. Still, you're headsup and the pot is small.

I don't see a real upside to continuing. If you hit your flush the bettor will probably check/fold or maybe check/call. If an ace comes and he has a lower pair, you may get the same outcome. If you miss and he bets, you're probably going to want to fold since the pot is so small.

I think this is a fold.

Interestingly, when I started writing the scenario above, I was going to advocate playing on but I just can't justify it. Had you raised preflop, I think this would play out differently.

Regards,

T

[Pov]

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Best example I can think of is if I'm getting 4:1 on the river for a 4 flush in TX HE is this really really -EV, dont think about doing it. Even under optimal conditions like I have the A and the board is un-paired?


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I assume you mean you're getting 4:1 on the turn with a 4-flush. This is usually an easy call. The exceptions would be:

1) a double-paired board

2) lots of strength has been shown on the hand and it is likely to be raised behind you thus meaning you're not really getting the odds you seem to be. Of course for a lot of strength to have been shown it's pretty hard for you to be getting only 4:1 unless maybe you're facing a raise cold.

3) you've got a 1-card 4-flush to a small or medium flush (i.e. anyone with one of the suit also has a 4-flush and it could easily be bigger than yours)

Note that I am not saying you should necessarily fold in these situations, just that you now have a careful decision to make.


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I always hear that you can take some -EV for a large pot, is there a BB amount that would make it large enough? would double my average pot (as told by pokertracker be sufficient)?


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Perhaps the right idea, but the wrong wording. A -EV decision is wrong. Period. What I think you're trying to ask is can it be +EV to call without quite having the proper pot odds. The answer to that is yes because of implied odds. The size of the pot has already been factored in by you stating 4:1. It really makes no difference if the pot is $3 or $300. You're getting 4:1. The advice you've heard about large pots is basically saying that in a large pot (say 8 bets or more) you will probably have odds to draw to some weird hands.


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Would implied odds apply that: If I do hit, there is say a 75% chance I can get enough bets while I'm now the best hand and not worried about odds, to have given me the right odds to call the turn?


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This is what makes the 4:1 an easy call most of the time, particularly at low limits. If you make your flush you will almost always win one more bet from your opponent(s) and if you don't make your flush you will fold at no further cost. Sometimes your flush will lose and you'll lose an extra bet, but sometimes you'll actually get to raise and win an extra bet. Because of this you can consider the pot to be a little larger than it really is right now. The number of opponents who could pay off a bet on the river when you make your hand will help you determine how much larger. Only experience will help you develop this judgement.

One problem with implied odds on a flush is that it's usually really obvious to the rest of the players that you just hit a flush or that someone could have just hit a flush so you're less likely to get to raise or to be raised by a losing hand. Now a backdoor flush on the other hand is one of my favorite hands to make as you'll get payed off much more frequently.

In closing, I'll point out for other readers who may have missed it: We're talking about getting 4:1 on a 4.11:1 break even proposition. We need very little in the way of implied odds to make this call correct. Do no start using implied odds to try and justify making calls with horrible odds when you could never reasonably make up the difference on the river.

[Pov]

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Let's build a scenario. You have A/images/graemlins/club.gif9/images/graemlins/club.gif in MP and you limp (hoping for other limpers), all fold to SB who completes and BB checks. Not a great outcome for you.

Pot: 3 small bets

Flop: T/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)

Check, bet, you call, fold

Pot: 5 small bets

Turn: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)

bet...



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This is a good example of where you've got a tough decision. It's pretty close because of the Ace overcard outs. But you see how hard it is to come up with a small stakes example of a play where you don't have the odds to continue with a flush draw?

Take note. This is why it is so critical to find ways to raise the turn on coordinated boards when you have a strong hand. Otherwise you are letting the calling stations play correctly far too often.


HIJACK! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

You should probably raise this flop. Then you can take a free card on the turn if it is not a club or an Ace and one is offered to you. /images/graemlins/wink.gif Actually you've probably got a decent chance to win with a bet on the turn against the right player if it is checked to you because the BB probably just has 1-pair no kicker and could easily fold in this small pot. I would take the free card against a calling station and bet against a tight player who could actually release one pair in a small pot.

[SheridanCat]

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This is a good example of where you've got a tough decision. It's pretty close because of the Ace overcard outs. But you see how hard it is to come up with a small stakes example of a play where you don't have the odds to continue with a flush draw?


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Yes, indeed. I can't remember the last time I played a hand that went down like this. It was definitely not at a 2/4 or 4/8 table lately. I tried a couple other scenarios and couldn't make it happen.

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You should probably raise this flop. Then you can take a free card on the turn if it is not a club or an Ace and one is offered to you. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

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Agreed. I didn't raise the flop in my scenario because then it wouldn't fit my conclusion. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Which just again goes to point out how often this isn't going to happen in real life.

T

[kleos]

Thank you both very much.

It was a 2/4c table, so POV is much more applicable, and I was put in that position twice, I just didnt know if it was bad to call when my pot odds were jut barely off. Since I could deffinitely collect more bets at that level, I made the right move (bad results -5.5BB last night).

I do see how I have to be more careful as stakes get higher, and players get better.