Big draw on flop becomes bigger draw on turn

[durron597]

I've had a lot of small PPs and suited connecting cards so I've been limping into a lot of pots. I figured the stacks were deep enough to call the flop because of the BD draw. My question is, bet turn?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t1860)
SB (t1280)
BB (t1305)
UTG (t1520)
UTG+1 (t1470)
Hero (t3130)
MP2 (t1470)
CO (t1465)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t30, UTG+1 calls t30, Hero calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t30, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t180) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t90</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls t90, Button folds, SB calls t90, BB folds.

Turn: (t450) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero ????

I wouldnt call an open ender a "big draw". That being said, i woudlnt waste alot of chips to see if you hit, and you have less outs because any heart that completes your straight will ruin you. Your flush draw might not be good either, but thats highly unlikley. I would check the turn if i were you, too many people are involved.

[lastchance]

I like making it t400 on the turn and calling the check-raise. Your draws are obvious enough not to check here, IMHO.

[hmohnphd]

Because of the stack sizes, I think I would bet about 500 and try to win it there. And call if c/r'ed all-in.

If you had an average stack, I would be more inclined to take the free card. I dunno, is that sound?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I like making it t400 on the turn and calling the check-raise. Your draws are obvious enough not to check here, IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is a BD flush draw obvious?

[ekky]

Id say that both his draws are very well concealed.. backdoor flush and the minnow U+D str8 draw.

Maybe you meant something else?

[HighestCard]

I would have to bet half the pot, giving you proper odds for any call. I cant see checking it to the river, because if you do make your hand it would be hard to induce a value bet call...that is unless your beat...

[wuwei]

I don't understand the idea that your draws aren't well concealed... they look pretty well hidden to me.

With a big stack like this, I lean toward betting the turn. If I was shorter, I'd check it through.

If I miss the draw on the river, I might bet if I'm HU - it depends on the my read on who calls. Would UTG play a flush draw this way, or a pair of 9s?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

If I miss the draw on the river, I might bet if I'm HU - it depends on the my read on who calls. Would UTG play a flush draw this way, or a pair of 9s?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that this is a turbo, so we are less than 7 hands in (I don't know the exact number off the top of my head).

That's interesting though; a lot of people are saying "bet with your big stack, check if you have a normal stack". I was under the impression that you should take the free card with concealed draws because you'll still probably get paid off if they hit, and you lose less when you get c/red on the turn or something.

[tigerite]

I was going to post something along those lines, actually. But I think that line is for when you could have the best hand already, and don't want to get knocked off it, and can improve to the nuts, kind of thing. That's not the case here, so it's not so important, IMO.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I was going to post something along those lines, actually. But I think that line is for when you could have the best hand already, and don't want to get knocked off it, and can improve to the nuts, kind of thing. That's not the case here, so it's not so important, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

So does that mean you WOULD bet?

[Al P]

With both players checking the turn, I don't think there's much value on the river if either of your draws hit.

I'd probably bet T300 and hope to take it down now.

[tigerite]

I dunno, I think it's close between the two. Would depend how weak-tight or, conversely, tricky I thought my opponents were. Also, if they are observant and know I wouldn't call on the flop just with overcards, then they'd realise the K hasn't hit me.

Basically if I think they would lay down if I represented the K, then I don't see any harm in betting.

[45suited]

I actually like checking behind on the turn here and taking the free card. You've got so many outs that it would suck to get C/R'd here.

Plus, I don't know how plausible it is that you have a K here and alot of opponents are likely to stick with a heart draw unless you bet big. So I check behind and take the free card.

[durron597]

Al P-

[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably bet T300 and hope to take it down now.

[/ QUOTE ]

45suited-

[ QUOTE ]
I actually like checking behind on the turn here and taking the free card. You've got so many outs that it would suck to get C/R'd here.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are the two arguments that makes this hand a tough one for me.

If I got C/Red here, I would have approximate pot odds to call the C/R. The thing is, by checking behind I give myself almost no chance to bluff the river, since I showed weakness on the turn. And those 450 chips would be nice in my stack, and if I get CALLED I have outs.

So I guess it comes down to how often I think I get bluff c/red, then, no?

[45suited]

I think that your assessment is correct. It also helps that you are the bigstack at the table too, I suppose.

On the other hand, when I'm the bigstack, I also take the approach that that 450 chip pot doesn't mean as much to me as it does to them, so sometimes I'm less likely to want to gamble away my chip lead. Especially on draw with only one card to come.

So I think that your assessment regarding the trickiness of your opponents is dead on. If they are passive, I'll bet here. Otherwise, I'd check behind.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
So I guess it comes down to how often I think I get bluff c/red, then, no?


[/ QUOTE ]

the frequency you're going to get c/r'ed by a made hand is also v. important. if you get c/r'ed by K /images/graemlins/heart.gifx /images/graemlins/heart.gif, T9, KQ, TT, etc, that's horrible because you're missing out on a chance to bet the river if you hit and get away for free if you don't (calling or folding to the c/r is much worse than that line).

i don't like the bet b/c i think the odds are too high you're going to get called. i don't think a c/r is all that likely, especially not a bluff c/r. but a heart draw or 9x is likely to call you here. is your plan to push the river if you miss your draw? if so, i like the plan of betting the turn a little better.

also, others in this thread have said:
- you can't check here and bluff the river because you've shown weakness and will get called
- checking here is bad b/c you can't get any value if you hit.

i tend to believe the first. i think you're getting called usually if you bet here, but if you check behind you're going to get looked up on the river.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
but a heart draw or 9x is likely to call you here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably true.

[ QUOTE ]
is your plan to push the river if you miss your draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, plan is to check or fold river if I miss, even if I hit a pair.

[ QUOTE ]

- checking here is bad b/c you can't get any value if you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really think this is not true. However, if an A hits it's possible a King may fold fearing a pair of aces? Hm.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
- checking here is bad b/c you can't get any value if you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm... how about the pot? There are reasons not to check (you might win the pot by betting), but I don't think that this is one of them. Sometimes the best way to win the pot is to take the free card. This pot has value NOW, even if you can't get another chip if you hit.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
- checking here is bad b/c you can't get any value if you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm... how about the pot? There are reasons not to check (you might win the pot by betting), but I don't think that this is one of them. Sometimes the best way to win the pot is to take the free card. This pot has value NOW, even if you can't get another chip if you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not sure if you guys are implying i agree with the quote above. i don't. i wrote:

[ QUOTE ]
also, others in this thread have said:
- you can't check here and bluff the river because you've shown weakness and will get called
- checking here is bad b/c you can't get any value if you hit.

i tend to believe the first. i think you're getting called usually if you bet here, but if you check behind you're going to get looked up on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

[45suited]

My mistake... I read it out of context. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif