Flopped the nut straight, villain all-in on the river, now what?!

[Miles Ahead]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (full ring, 7 players)

(There may be some errors in here -- converter didn't seem to be working right this morning.)

UTG ($105.64)
UTG+1 ($34.50)
MP ($57.05)
CO ($50.05)
Hero ($65.05)
SB ($10.65)
BB has ($57.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q /images/graemlins/club.gif10 /images/graemlins/club.gif

SB posts a blind of $0.25. BB posts $0.50.
(UTG has been LAG pre-flop, playing more than 40% of the pots and raising often preflops (but generally smallish raises), but tight post-flop.)
UTG raises to $2.
1 fold
MP calls
(I don't have a great read on MP, except I have noticed that he will play almost any A and a lot of weak K's too and he has called down to the river with some failry weak hands (e.g., TPWK). Haven't seen much aggression from him pre- or post-flop.)
1 fold
Hero calls.
SB folds.
BB calls.

Flop: ($8.25) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J /images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $4, MP calls $4, Hero calls $4, BB folds.

Turn: ($20.25) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
UTG bets $4, MP calls, Hero raises to $16, UTG folds, MP calls.

The reason I raised is I had a pretty good idea based on my reads that MP has top pair, and I decided it was time to extract some more money from him (and hopefully confuse him a little). I hoped UTG would come along for the ride, and so I kept the raise close to 1/2 of what was already in the pot.

River: ($56.25) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
MP all-in ($35.05), Hero?!

[djoyce003]

given your read you have to call here, and if he has the full house then that's poker. He could easily be calling with a weak ace and think that he's good now since there is only one left in the deck.

[flopking]

[ QUOTE ]
except I have noticed that he will play almost any A and a lot of weak K's too and he has called down to the river with some failry weak hands

[/ QUOTE ]

insta call, though AJ is a likely possibility...

[Miles Ahead]

Is there anything anyone would have done differently? Did I show too much strength on the turn? Should I have waited until the river to try to trap UTG for one more bet?

[djoyce003]

i'd have raised to 20 on the turn instead of 16 but that's nitpicking. You got a big raise called when you had the nuts...what more can you ask for....always try to get in money on the turn because it lets you make bigger river bets as well and still get them called. I don't really think you misplayed this hand at all...if you lost it, then oh well, but you played the hand fine.

[RiverFenix]

On a rainbow board, id probably do the same, but theres $16 in the pot on the flop by the time it gets to you. A raise here is something to consider to make a turn push about what you have left.

[nietzreznor]

I would probably raise the flop. With a bet from UTG and a call from MP, I think a raise here is good, especially if MP will call a raie here with any A. A raise here also makes your subsequent plays easier, you can put the rest in on the turn.
Either way, I think you have to raise more on the turn. If you raise it more, your river decision will be a no-brainer. Do you think he folds an A to a 2/3 pot raise or full pot raise but not a 1/2 pot? If he is weak, my guess is no. It would be nice to have 2 callers, but giving two opponents decent odds doesn't sound as nice as getting one opponent to put in a lot when he is likely FAR behind. And if he isn't far behind (a set), then you didn't charge him enough.

As you played it, I call the river.

[swolfe]

raise the flop and take control of the betting...just make it $18 or something. his half-pot doesn't show enough strength for me to want to let him continue controlling the betting...and that's demonstrated by his turn donkbet.

raise more on the turn too. $25 or so

[deadmoney98]

I probably would have raised the flop, but I certainly don't think a smooth call is awful. Thing is, and this sucks but it happens a lot because of the way these people play at this level, you have to raise more on the turn.

Look at the numbers, MP is calling 12 more to win 44. UTG is basically wasting your time with his bet, but I think you have to make it at least 25 here. I mean, MP still will not fold his two pair, but it will make his a play a bigger mistake and your crying call on the river a little easier.

Unfortunately, I think it is highly unlikely he does not have a full house here.

[Miles Ahead]

Hmmm . . .I was afraid I'd lose them with a raise on the flop, but you're probably right. He probably would have at least called that raise.

I like the suggestions to raise more on the turn. If there's one thing I should have done differently, I think that's it.

[bfc]

I think this is a clear call. You're gettig 91:35 so even if he has the boat 70% of the time in this situation the call is +EV. My guess (based on your read and the weak turn bet) is that you more than likely have him beat here.

[Miles Ahead]

Unfortunately, villain turned over A 8. Runner, runner full house.

I definitely think I should have charged him more on the turn to draw to that. Oh well. That's poker.

[Malachii]

[ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately, villain turned over A 8. Runner, runner full house.

I definitely think I should have charged him more on the turn to draw to that. Oh well. That's Party


[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[snappo]

Raise the flop. Think of all the turn cards that ruin your hand. Any A,K,Q,J,T all either can make someone a better hand or a split, or will at least kill your action. Get your money in now against 2pair,set,pair+(gutshot to split), etc.

[fuzzbox]

I hate slowplaying broadway like this - you often get action from two-pair style hands - so go ahead an raise the flop and try to get it all in on the turn if you can.

If you make it 20 to go on the flop, then you can put the rest of your money in on the turn. And 20 is about pot when it gets to you.

[ijustliketoplay]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]