FF: I'm on the clock and need help with my 1st pick (7th overall)

[CarlSpackler]

I'm the 7th pick in a 16 team draft. League starts 1 qb, 2 rb, 3 wr/te, 1 k, 1 defense. Standard scoring - 6pts for TD passing, receiving, or rushing. 1 pt per 10 yards rush/receiving, and 1 pt per 20 yards passing. Turnovers -2. The following players have been picked in the first round in order:

Tomlinson
Alexander
James
McGahee
Manning

The 6th pick is on the clock and I'm next. If Priest is still available, I'm obviously going to take him. If this guy before me takes him, who do I take? I'm trying to decide between J. Lewis-rb, Randy Moss-wr, and D. McAllister-rb. Who do you think is the best choice?

[Clarkmeister]

Of those, I'd take Deuce.

[CollinEstes]

Everyone is predicting J. Lewis is blow up.

Who took McGahee. Ouch.

[brettbrettr]

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Of those, I'd take Deuce.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. Lewis' ankle is a concern.

[junkmail3]

Moss - no.

RB ... how long will a good RB last?

There are really only three great QBs in this draft. Do you think it will be worthwhile snagging one of those before they're gone?

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
Moss - no.

RB ... how long will a good RB last?

There are really only three great QBs in this draft. Do you think it will be worthwhile snagging one of those before they're gone?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's rarely correct to take anything other than a RB first.

[wh1t3bread]

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It's rarely correct to take anything other than a RB first.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you. The only exception(s) that I can think of is Manning or if you are late in the first round...maybe taking Culpepper. But without Moss this year I wouldn't even do that.

[pudley4]

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6pts for TD passing

[/ QUOTE ]

This is most certainly not standard scoring, and it increases the relative value of the top few quarterbacks (especially Manning).

Your choice is between Deuce and Culpepper.

[Clarkmeister]

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6pts for TD passing

[/ QUOTE ]

This is most certainly not standard scoring,

[/ QUOTE ]

When combined with turnovers -2 it is.

[Aces McGee]

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Your choice is between Deuce and Culpepper

[/ QUOTE ]

Taking a QB (especially one who isn't Peyton Manning) is nuts here.

-McGee

[CarlSpackler]

The guy before me took Priest, and I ended up taking J. Lewis. I forgot to turn off the autodrafter, and I had Lewis ahead of Deuce on my predraft 1st round list. I had Lewis ranked ahead of Deuce, because of the Ravens upgrades on their OL and WR, and from what I've read he seems to be 100% healthy. Now I'm definitely starting to rethink my rankings for these two as far as my other drafts are concerned. The more I think about it, the more I regret not taking Deuce.

Thanks for the input guys.

[brettbrettr]

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from what I've read he seems to be 100% healthy.

[/ QUOTE ]

What on earth are you reading? He had surgery at the end of last season, then wasn't able to do a proper rehab because he was in jail.

[nolanfan34]

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from what I've read he seems to be 100% healthy.

[/ QUOTE ]

What on earth are you reading? He had surgery at the end of last season, then wasn't able to do a proper rehab because he was in jail.

[/ QUOTE ]

Other than that, he's fine though.

Seriously, this is a great example of why I really hate having picks 4-9 this year. No clear cut decisions.

[Bulldog]

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I forgot to turn off the autodrafter

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Hahahahahahahahaha! You came here asking for all this advice then auto-selected? Priceless. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[SossMan]

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The guy before me took Priest, and I ended up taking J. Lewis. I forgot to turn off the autodrafter, and I had Lewis ahead of Deuce on my predraft 1st round list. I had Lewis ranked ahead of Deuce, because of the Ravens upgrades on their OL and WR, and from what I've read he seems to be 100% healthy. Now I'm definitely starting to rethink my rankings for these two as far as my other drafts are concerned. The more I think about it, the more I regret not taking Deuce.

Thanks for the input guys.

[/ QUOTE ]


http://lightsout.onestop.net/noose.jpg

[CarlSpackler]

Well how far down do you guys have J. Lewis ranked? Do you have Dominick Davis, Kevin Jones, Clinton Portis, Rudi Johnson, and Julius Jones all ranked ahead of J. Lewis?

[SossMan]

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Well how far down do you guys have J. Lewis ranked? Do you have Dominick Davis, Kevin Jones, Clinton Portis, Rudi Johnson, and Julius Jones all ranked ahead of J. Lewis?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, yes, yes, yes, and yes among others.

[CD56]

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Moss - no.

RB ... how long will a good RB last?

There are really only three great QBs in this draft. Do you think it will be worthwhile snagging one of those before they're gone?

[/ QUOTE ]

who is the 3rd great QB, i only count 2 daunte being the other one

[The Armchair]

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Well how far down do you guys have J. Lewis ranked? Do you have Dominick Davis, Kevin Jones, Clinton Portis, Rudi Johnson, and Julius Jones all ranked ahead of J. Lewis?

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yes, yes, yes, yes, and yes among others.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not a Portis fan. I'm also not much of a Jamal Lewis fan. I'd put Lewis higher, especially if you think you can grab Chester Taylor (who makes for a perfectly acceptable fantasy starter if he's the Ravens actual starter) in a late round.

Rudi, both Joneses, and DD should be higher than Jamal, though, not that it matters much at that point. Don't fret these picks -- you'll be fine so long as you don't have a total brain fart and grab a guy whose job is at risk to basically any degree (read: 49er, Panther, Viking, etc.) or a guy who is likely to drop off such as CMart or Dillon. And even then, the latter guys aren't a big mistake. Top-flight RBs are notoriously flukey and are all potential injury risks. So, no matter what, there's a large degree of crapshootitivity(TM).

Focus on the lower rounds. That's where teams are made and dreams die.

[The Armchair]

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[ QUOTE ]
Moss - no.

RB ... how long will a good RB last?

There are really only three great QBs in this draft. Do you think it will be worthwhile snagging one of those before they're gone?

[/ QUOTE ]

who is the 3rd great QB, i only count 2 daunte being the other one

[/ QUOTE ]

I count one. His last name is Manning and he doesn't play for the Giants. Damnit.

After that, there are three to seven in the second tier, depending on your scoring system. For those who care, here are Culpepper's numbers from last year's 11 games without Moss, prorated over a full season, and compared to McNabb and Brady:

DC: 3840 yards, 32 TD
DM: 3875, 31
TB: 3692, 28

Noting that Culpepper also has a better defense, the need to pass may be lessened, making him even harder to distinguish from the pack.

To demonstrate how much of a crapshoot it is, the Tampa Bay QBs (Johnson, Simms, Griese) put up something close to 3600 yards and 26 touchdowns. If you expect a slight falloff from the prorated stats above for Culpepper, you are basically getting Brian Griese plus a bit.

[The Armchair]

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Seriously, this is a great example of why I really hate having picks 4-9 this year. No clear cut decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

LT, Alexander, Holmes, McGahee, Edge, with Peyton somewhere in there. That's top six.

Seven is really tough. In a ten team league, I'd be tempted to go with Moss, first because I think the RB pool is deep enough where I can get a starting caliber one at 27th overall, and second because I know that I'm a good enough middle and late round drafter to make up for the problems not having taken an RB causes. But I can't imagine taking anything but a RB otherwise.

Who you take here is not really all that important, as I said in another post above. However, you should keep an eye out for who is going to be around at your next pick. Many leagues tend to have echo picks -- the guy(s) taken in succession are the same type of player as the guy before. Lewis will be followed by McAllister, Ahman Green, and Clinton Portis. Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, and Domanick Davis will probably be lumped together, potentially with Rudi Johnson as well. Tiki Barber, Curtis Martin, and Corey Dillon will probably go close to in succession.

One of the tricks when near the wrap-around but not on it is to take a guy with a natural echo, because you can predict who will go next. Also, guys who lack any natural echoes are likely to fall further than you'd expect otherwise -- keep an eye on that.

[CarlSpackler]

I agree with your take on Moss, as I was seriously considering taking him here. Normally I wouldn't take a wr at the 7th pick, but the #1 wr is still on the board and while he's risky here being a wr, the potential reward is probably greater than any other player at this juncture. And with the deep rb pool, you're assured of getting a good one on the way back. My predraft strategy was(is) running back theory, so that's why I stuck with the rb.

Deuce, K. Jones, J. Jones, and Portis were the 4 picks after my selection. This seems to support echo theroy and the popularity of the rb theory. I'm still planning on taking a rb with my next pick even if Chad Johnson or Marvin Harrison are still on the board.

[Jack of Arcades]

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Of those, I'd take Deuce.

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I don't think you could really go wrong with Domanick, one of the Joneses, Rudi, Clinton, or Tiki here.

[nolanfan34]

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Seriously, this is a great example of why I really hate having picks 4-9 this year. No clear cut decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

LT, Alexander, Holmes, McGahee, Edge, with Peyton somewhere in there. That's top six.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the rest of your picks, but I'm not touching Holmes this year, no way. I know injuries can't be predicted, but guys who missed time the previous year due to injury, I have a hard time drafting that early.

[wayabvpar]

Agreed. Holmes has a lot of wear and tear on his tires as well- he is due for a pretty severe dropoff ala Emmitt Smith and Marshall Faulk. RBs get old in a hurry, especially once the injuries start piling up.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Seriously, this is a great example of why I really hate having picks 4-9 this year. No clear cut decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]


LT, Alexander, Holmes, McGahee, Edge, with Peyton somewhere in there. That's top six.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the rest of your picks, but I'm not touching Holmes this year, no way. I know injuries can't be predicted, but guys who missed time the previous year due to injury, I have a hard time drafting that early.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think he's fine, so long as you make sure you get L. Johnson. That offense is going to score w/ it's running game. period.