a coin flip dilemma

[alexd231232]

Consider the fllowing hypothetical situation. You are playing a sng and are at lvl 3(25/50). You know exactly how villian plays(he only plays AJ, AQ, AK, JJ,QQ, KK, AA and he plays the Ax's very differently from the wired pairs). You are dealt TT and the table folds to villian who goes all in. To you this means that he definitely has AJ, AQ, or AK meaning you know it is a coinflip situation. Do you call here? I guess the question i am really trying to ask is: If you know you are giong to get yourself into a coinflip situation, do you still put all your chips into the pot or wait for a better day.

For sake of argument, say your raise was either 100,200,or 300 if you started at 1500 and both of you are pretty even. Would it matter and if you say i'd fold, how much money would you need in the pot in order to go ahead and go for the coin flip?
Thanks in advance for responses

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
Consider the fllowing hypothetical situation. You are playing a sng and are at lvl 3(25/50). You know exactly how villian plays(he only plays AJ, AQ, AK, JJ,QQ, KK, AA and he plays the Ax's very differently from the wired pairs). You are dealt TT and the table folds to villian who goes all in. To you this means that he definitely has AJ, AQ, or AK meaning you know it is a coinflip situation. Do you call here? I guess the question i am really trying to ask is: If you know you are giong to get yourself into a coinflip situation, do you still put all your chips into the pot or wait for a better day.

For sake of argument, say your raise was either 100,200,or 300 if you started at 1500 and both of you are pretty even. Would it matter and if you say i'd fold, how much money would you need in the pot in order to go ahead and go for the coin flip?
Thanks in advance for responses

[/ QUOTE ]

Just fold, he can also have an open-pair, regardless of your read. And if I have a big stack, I'll pass more often than not in this spot.

[alexd231232]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Consider the fllowing hypothetical situation. You are playing a sng and are at lvl 3(25/50). You know exactly how villian plays(he only plays AJ, AQ, AK, JJ,QQ, KK, AA and he plays the Ax's very differently from the wired pairs). You are dealt TT and the table folds to villian who goes all in. To you this means that he definitely has AJ, AQ, or AK meaning you know it is a coinflip situation. Do you call here? I guess the question i am really trying to ask is: If you know you are giong to get yourself into a coinflip situation, do you still put all your chips into the pot or wait for a better day.

For sake of argument, say your raise was either 100,200,or 300 if you started at 1500 and both of you are pretty even. Would it matter and if you say i'd fold, how much money would you need in the pot in order to go ahead and go for the coin flip?
Thanks in advance for responses

[/ QUOTE ]

Just fold, he can also have an open-pair, regardless of your read. And if I have a big stack, I'll pass more often than not in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, i'm saying, for this hypothetical example that YOU KNOW that he has AJ, AQ, or AK and it WILL BE a 50/50, no doubt about it. What i am getting at is when you know its gonna be a flip of the coin, what decides if you put all the money in the middle

[alexd231232]

bump
anyone have any thoughts?

[AbelM]

If you think there will be a situation where your EV is higher than this one a fold is correct. I guess that's very true for this situation.

[Matt R.]

Since the blinds are low relative to your stack, I think ICM should give you a very accurate answer here. If I'm far from making the money, I'm more inclined to call with a pair. It also depends on the stacks of the rest of the table (ICM takes this into consideration). e.g. you won't want to tussle with the guy if your stacks are both well above average usually. But if you're both one of the shorter stacks, it's more correct to call. As blinds get larger this is even more true.

I guess 2:1 pot odds would justify these 1:1 odds. Just my opinion...

[cfjr2]

you win ~54% of the time but I would think you can find a better spot to push (of course might be nice to have him out when you win).

If flop is rags you move to 76% if a T hits you are 98%

if villan pairs you are at 13% if he hits 2 pair you are at 10% if he hits trips you still have 11% chance
So even with a bad flop you stil have a prayer .

[alexd231232]

[ QUOTE ]
you win ~54% of the time but I would think you can find a better spot to push (of course might be nice to have him out when you win).

If flop is rags you move to 76% if a T hits you are 98%

if villan pairs you are at 13% if he hits 2 pair you are at 10% if he hits trips you still have 11% chance
So even with a bad flop you stil have a prayer .

[/ QUOTE ]

This is all pretty irrelevant if we go all in as i assume we wwould preflop. More importantly is whether you'd push or not. Something people haven't really adressed is whether or not the size of your initial raise mattered. How much of the pot would need to be yours for this to be a good call

[cfjr2]

good point so (assuming you are not the blind)
blinds (25+50) = 75 you bet 50+100 = 150
pot = 225 your stack = 1350
villan bets 1500 pot = 1725
pot odds to call 1.3 to 1

blinds (25+50) = 75 you bet 50 + 200 = 250
pot = 325 your stack = 1250
villan bets 1500 pot = 1825
pot odds to call 1.46 to 1

blinds (25+50) = 75 you bet 50 + 300 = 350
pot = 425 your stack = 1150
villan bets 1500 pot = 1925
pot odds to call 1.67 to 1

I will win 54% of the time (6 to 5) I really only need to get slightly less than 1 to 1 pot odds but since this will knock me out it comes down to personal preference in choosing your battle no?

I think I would call - it will increase variance but when you do triple up (assuming 1,000 starting stacks) this early you are in good position for the reminder of the SNG.

[alexd231232]

See that is the thing, you said it comes down to personal preference. But isnt there something more here, something that must tell you whether or not pushing here is the right move. Clearly one could wait for a better situation to arise in which they've made their hand and the win is inevitable, but that is a very optomistic attitude which may not pan out exactly as it should in the rest of the SNG.

[cfjr2]

you could wait for a better hand that never comes which is why I lean towards push here, I am just personally unsure if you should do this this early in the tournament or wait.

I also consider that with the read you have on this guy you would need to wait for pocket Aces to dominate - any other pocket pair you are in the same situation (and if he has JJ-AA you wouldn't play him w/o AA either).

So do you wait to have a larger stack to play coin flip?
Do you wait until you are ITM to play coin flip?
Do you wait for him to be blinded to death waiting to get his big cards (which is all he plays)?

or

Do you take a chance to put yourself in a dominating position for the remainder of the early rounds?

I don't know what the expert position here is but as I said I lean towards taking the lead here.

[Amid Cent]

You should take into consideration your skill level vs the rest of the table. If you think you are far better than the average player, then fold here and wait for a better chance to double up. If you think that you are on par, or slightly weaker than the rest of the table, use this chance to double up and take a big chip lead.

[alexd231232]

Good point, i didnt really take skill level into it but that seems like it would be the deciding factor here. Thanks

[Dallara]

I've had a similar situation come up a few times in the past few days. The situation is that it's level 1 of let's say a $22. You have all your chips. One player is shortstacked already, let's say he has t400. You open raise from middle position to t60 with a-k. All fold to BB who is the short stack. He moves in for t400. Do you call here and take a coinflip for half your stack or do you fold?

Given that you have an ace and a king, you're somewhat less likely to be up against AA or KK. Also, let's face it the guy who is shortstacked at level 1 is probably not a great player and could be doing this with anything.

I've generally folded in this situation. Given that winning only gets you to t1200 and losing cripples you badly, I felt this was the better play. Anyone feel you should gamble here? If he has t300 are you more likely to call? How about t200?

[alexd231232]

If its 300 or less, i will certainly call. This is mainly because he is so short which implies that he's gonna be pushing with just about anything(KQ, JQ etc). I think it is worth it.