Top Two on the flop

[Origami]

5/5 B&M game. I'm in the BB with K /images/graemlins/heart.gif5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP raises to 20. 4 callers and I call.

$120 in the pot.

Flop comes K /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I'm first to act. Is trying for a check-raise automatic here? With a PFR from MP I figure to get a bet from someone. However, the table is somewhat loose, and I am afraid that if nobody has hit the King it may get checked around.

I bet $80 and get a call from a tight-solid player in LP. Another LP goes all in for his remaining $70. With a call on this board, LP has some kind of King or a big PP.

$350 in the pot. Turn comes T /images/graemlins/club.gif

The thought comes to me that LP has a King with a decent kicker....possibly K w/A-T. It is possible that he may have just hit his kicker, busting my 2 pair, or may hit his kicker on the river. Not to mention I am behind a set. 22 and 55 are highly unlikely. I don't think he would have called my flop bet with TT, and with the other 2 Kings out, KK also seems unlikely.

First to act. LP and I are almost even stacks.

Your play?

[Ghazban]

Stack sizes?

Tight-solid player flat calling on this board sounds like a set a huge percentage of the time. If you are ahead on the flop, I think you're still ahead on the turn as the tight/solid is not likely to call a preflop raise with a KT (KQ is the only hand I can think of that he might have that you are beating).

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]


LP and I are almost even stacks.



[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and they are how big?

[Origami]

Sorry...about $800 each. He may have me covered by less than $100.

[djoyce003]

bet 2/3 the pot?

[Ghazban]

You're effectively headsup now, so I'd bet 1/2 pot and fold to a raise. He may have flat called a set on this drawless flop to entice a call behind him but, as you're both fairly deep, I think he'll raise you now if he has one. If he has a one-pair hand, half pot is callable but not so weak that he'll raise one pair just to try and blow you out of the pot. If he flat calls the turn, I like a blocking bet on the river.

[Origami]

I agree that it feels like a set, but I just can't get there. I've got a King and a 5...so there is only 1 way for him to have KK or 55. I just can't see him cold-calling a PFR with 22.

If I really feel he doesn't have a set here, but I am afraid of him hitting his kicker, is a push/pot bet wrong here?

[Ghazban]

Why do you think he wouldn't call a preflop raise with 22? Calling raises with small pairs, flopping sets, and busting overpairs/TPTK is where a lot of the profit is made in small NL games.

If you strongly feel that he is drawing to 6 outs (his kicker plus another ten that would counterfeit you), a half pot bet gives him 3:1 odds on a 6:1 shot without committing you to the pot. There's $350 in the pot now, if you bet 1/2 pot and get called, you will have $625 left and the pot will be $700. This should let you get away if an A, Q, or ten fall on the river and he makes a big bet (do you think KJ is a likely holding? If so, you have to worry about a J, too). If you bet full pot, there will be $550 in your stack and the pot will be $1050-- much much harder to get away. If you push, you probably only get called when you're drawing to 2-4 outs.

[Origami]

I feel like there is a good chance that I am still ahead here, and I want to take down the pot now. So I bet $300. He called with little hesitation.

River comes Q /images/graemlins/club.gif which was the card that I most likely put him on as having.

I checked, not wanting to blow any more chips. He thinks about it for a looong time. Goes all-in.

I muck.

He shows K /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif for the flush, and my hand is not only no good, it sucks ass.

Please feel free to comment, as I would like as much feedback as you can give on this hand.

[Ghazban]

You're pretty much committed at this point but its live so maybe you can get away. With a great read, I can check/fold this but I'm probably check/calling and hoping he tries to milk it by only betting $200 or something.

Not to be overly critical, but this river situation is a great example of why you need to plan ahead in no-limit. Your turn bet was a size that made the river uncomfortable to play. Had you made the turn bet all-in or smaller, you would have better options on the river but the way things turned out, you're just screwed.

[Origami]

I agree about planning ahead. I'm sure others will get a kick out of me saying this, but it is hard enough for me to think about what to do on THIS street, let alone the NEXT.

Perhaps it will get better with experience.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree about planning ahead. I'm sure others will get a kick out of me saying this, but it is hard enough for me to think about what to do on THIS street, let alone the NEXT.

Perhaps it will get better with experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

No worries; everybody on this board (and probably lots of people who play higher, too, though serious high stakes players are almost always thinking ahead) runs into these issues from time to time. You can't always control it, either as you might get 2 callers instead of one on a given street and then your plan for the rest of the hand has to change due to the stack:pot ratio you're faced with being different from what you thought it would be. A lot of the difficult later street decisions people are confronted with could have been made easier by slightly changing bet sizes on earlier streets.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
I feel like there is a good chance that I am still ahead here, and I want to take down the pot now. So I bet $300.

[/ QUOTE ]

This thinking is flawed. If he has you beat there is no amount you can bet that "will take it down". If you are ahead, he is likely drawing to 3-outs to win. Bet 1/2 and be done to any aggression.