How did i play this river flush draw?

PokerStars 0.02/0.04 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $0.02.
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 (poster) checks, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks.

Turn: (4 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, SB folds, BB folds.

River: (8 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds.

Final Pot: 11 BB

[Cooker]

Flop: Seems fine, you have bottom pair. On this draw heavy board with a made straight possible, this hand is probably too weak to bet or probably even call a bet. If the guy behind you bets, what do you do when it comes back to you? Well, your back door flush draw is worth about 1 out and your trips/2 pair draw is worth about 2.5 outs (I cut it down from 5 outs because of the large field and made straight possibilities) giving you about 3.5 outs. If you are getting around 14 to 1 when it gets back to you, a call is probably in order, otherwise fold.

Turn: Sure you improve to a real flush draw, but I don't know about a bet here. For your bet to be correct here, I think you must have a reasonable chance to fold everyone or a very good chance 4 or more players will call (your bet is plus EV only if 4 or more players stay in). You get 3 callers, so your bet turned out to be bad, but I think the scary board coupled with weak players means that you were sort of in limbo with little chance to win and little chance to get enough callers to turn a profit. I probably check/call here.

River: You haven't improved, you probably don't have the best hand, and you are unlikely to fold a better hand. I think checking and folding to any bet is best on the end. For bets on the end to be correct, they must have some chance to either fold a better hand or get called by a worse hand. I doubt your bet on the end has any chance of doing either. I wouldn't call someone else's bet with your hand since the pot is too multiway and it is too likely someone has at least Jacks.

I don't play at the really micro's often though, so I could be giving way too much credit to your opponents.

thanks for the analysis, just incase you were curious, got beat by AJ

[Webster]

Anywhere 1/2 and above this is a loose play pre flop - however - it's ok in micros because you will get a ton of action.

I might have bet the flop - get some of those guys to fold - if you are raised you can now fold comfortably. If anyone folds to your bet you increase your chance of winning.

Good Turn bet - you have implied odds. you have many ways to win this hand and a bunch of money coming in on your bet. If you bet you WANT those guys to call. It increases your odds for that flush.

I would have check folded the river. A bluff won't work with so many calling stations (which is what you have here).

You tried - you missed - timeto fold.

All you have is 2nd to bottom pair.

Grinderswarehouse - NOT just another BLOG (http://www.grinderswarehouse.com)

[SheridanCat]

Let see if I can get this right.

The limp is okay because you're probably going to get plenty of people limping along behind you if this is a loose nd passive game. I can see playing this for two bets if you expect a family pot but if there's been a lot of prelop 3-bets and capping, it's a fold.

The flop is obviously okay.

The bet is right. You're betting for value there and you have a teensy bit of fold equity as well. Unfortunately, the chasers give it up.

I'm not a fan of the bet on the river. If you're raised you'll probably have to lay it down. If you check and call, you will have paid the same amount as bet/fold but you'll be able to show it down - which gives you a little hope.

The over-caller, MP3, has a ten and feels he's good now. I think you're way behind.

Regards,

T

[SheridanCat]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks for the analysis, just incase you were curious, got beat by AJ

[/ QUOTE ]

Which caller? I put MP2 on AJ and MP3 on a ten, maybe KT.

Regards,

T

sorry, i can't seem to find the hand history.

[Cooker]

I still believe that the turn bet is marginal, and haven't seen a really good argument for making it. You either want everyone to fold or at least 4 people to call. Since the hand is so multiway, you are unlikely to have everyone fold. Since the board is so scary, you are unlikely to get a bunch of callers (granted I may be giving too much credit to the .02/.04 players).

Still there are a few more reasons why I favor checking the turn here. First, at these low limits, people love to play cute whether or not it is correct. A player behind you may well have checked the straight on the flop. So, if a player behind you raises driving everyone else out, you will wish you had checked since now you will have the worst result: you didn't even get correct odds to hit your flush on this round of betting (your effective odds for the round would be 6 to 2 even though each decision appeared OK on the surface you didn't properly account for being raised when you first bet). Actually, if the guy with AJ had done this, his play of the hand would have been textbook. Finally, if someone behind you bets and gets enough callers that you have a nice equity edge (i.e. there are 4 or more other people in) you can check raise and pump the pot with this edge and possibly reach a free showdown with your unimproved pair of nines if you miss your flush draw.

I agree that aggressive is usually better than passive, but I think full analysis should be given in these post mortem dissections. I think the merits of checking the turn outweigh the merits of betting here, but I think it is close and heavily dependent on reads. If you know there are 5 players that go to every river then a bet is correct, but I still think an attempted check raise might be even better. If you know no one behind you ever tries anything cute, then a bet looks better since the chance to get raised (which really makes your initial bet -EV) goes away.