Whipsaw's post

[TheRonin]

Whipsaw why did you stop posting you daily picks? Your slacking on us.

[chiachu]

probably cause he doesnt want us leeching his picks

unfortunate for me, cause i liked following his picks. But i cant say i blame him, since most of the people who will folow his picks will do so without adding anything (picks or discussion) to this forum (like me /images/graemlins/frown.gif ).

[mrbaseball]

Whipsaw does indeed have a fine eye for value. We see eye to eye much more often than not.

But posting picks is a pita. I have done complete seasons of posting picks (at a different place than here) day in and day with analysis on each and every game. It really becomes a grind. I still try to break down a game every now and then and typically kibitz when someone else does post. I am also a big believer in posting the whys and wherefores and the analysis and thinking that goes into a selection and quite frankly that is time consuming.

I like his picks too and I'm pretty much always open to any baseball handicapping discussion that arises. But I realize to do picks and analysis daily can be quite taxing.

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]
Whipsaw why did you stop posting you daily picks?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unlike what others have said, it really wasn't a time thing, nor was it a mooching thing. I rarely posted analysis (usually only on weekends when I had time), so it really didn't take that much time to throw some picks up on a post. As far as mooching goes, if I'm going to post picks I have to assume others will mooch (or fade) them. Goes with the territory.

The real reason I stopped posting picks is that I started working on an Excel formula-based picking program that will churn out a projected line, which I can then compare to the book lines and bet value. It's pretty much what everyone else does, but I had to build my own from the ground up. So that ate up my time as I stopped betting in books and just tracked my program's progress over a couple of weeks.

On that note, anyone know a nice baseball stats website that I could use for web queries from Excel? I need relatively specialized statistics (like what ESPN.com offers) that are sortable by team name (which ESPN.com doesn't offer).

[ QUOTE ]
Your slacking on us.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry.

[whipsaw]

However, if you want a nice piece of value today, consider the Royals at +255 currently at Pinny. The Royals are a decent road hitting team, while Boston is middle-of-the-road pitching at home, if even that good. Clement has been lit up his last two home starts. While DJ Carrasco has been nothing to write home about lately, he hasn't been getting blown out of ballparks either. Lots of value taking the big +255 dog in this game, IMHO. I have the line at somewhere around +170-180. Any other thoughts?

[whipsaw]

Oh yeah and I'm a lawyer, so my time is necessarily short to begin with. I'm not a professional handicapper (which is obvious from my picks /images/graemlins/grin.gif).

[Bill C]

Another point on that is pitchers coming back after being hit, especially in the head, by line drives are very often not the same guy, at least for a while, and maybe forever (ie Herb Score, etc). The price here is huge, and worth a fade just on that point alone, IMHO. Plus, as Whipsaw noted, there are other compelling reasons to like KC. Carrasco's a little hard to take, but it's all built into the price, which I believe is more than generous.

bc

[mrbaseball]

I like KC at this price too. KC hasn't exactly rolled over and played dead in Boston. I liked 'em a lot on Tuesday too but they blew the 4 run lead because they are KC /images/graemlins/smile.gif But there is plenty of slop in this line making them an easy play here. I like the +1.5 +125 runline a lot too.

And yeah, Clement might be tentative after the head shot. He had been in shaky form lately anyway.

[TheRonin]

Yeah I def. leech from you whipsaw. But I really appreciate your insight and analysis into your bets also. I spend all my extra time at work, playing or studying poker. In any case thanks whipsaw. I apprec.

You da man

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Whipsaw why did you stop posting you daily picks?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unlike what others have said, it really wasn't a time thing, nor was it a mooching thing. I rarely posted analysis (usually only on weekends when I had time), so it really didn't take that much time to throw some picks up on a post. As far as mooching goes, if I'm going to post picks I have to assume others will mooch (or fade) them. Goes with the territory.

The real reason I stopped posting picks is that I started working on an Excel formula-based picking program that will churn out a projected line, which I can then compare to the book lines and bet value. It's pretty much what everyone else does, but I had to build my own from the ground up. So that ate up my time as I stopped betting in books and just tracked my program's progress over a couple of weeks.

On that note, anyone know a nice baseball stats website that I could use for web queries from Excel? I need relatively specialized statistics (like what ESPN.com offers) that are sortable by team name (which ESPN.com doesn't offer).

[/ QUOTE ]

I have just started to do the excel formula method as well...I've been making "fake bets" for a week (and i will continue to do so for a month probably) to test my formula and the results have been promising (I KNOW, VERY SMALL SAMPLE SIZE). Over the past week, i have made 20 fake bets and would be up $912 making $100 bets. That's a ridiculous 45% ROI, and i realize that there's no way it will continue.

As for stats, i use espn.com, and then just use excel to sort by team...i'm not sure if that's what you wanted to do or not.

Anyway, i'll start to post my picks for a while and we'll see if/when my luck runs out.

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]

As for stats, i use espn.com, and then just use excel to sort by team...i'm not sure if that's what you wanted to do or not.


[/ QUOTE ]

I currently use excel too, but I don't want to have to copy in twenty different charts, sort them by team, etc. I want to use a web query in Excel that will automatically pull the stats from the webpage, to save me some time. Using my VLOOKUP functions, I think I need team sorted alphabetically, and for some [censored] reason espn won't just add that feature to their stats. Would make my life a lot, LOT easier.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

As for stats, i use espn.com, and then just use excel to sort by team...i'm not sure if that's what you wanted to do or not.


[/ QUOTE ]

I currently use excel too, but I don't want to have to copy in twenty different charts, sort them by team, etc. I want to use a web query in Excel that will automatically pull the stats from the webpage, to save me some time. Using my VLOOKUP functions, I think I need team sorted alphabetically, and for some [censored] reason espn won't just add that feature to their stats. Would make my life a lot, LOT easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, has to be sorted by team

[DougOzzzz]

I actually was not aware of the existence of web queries in excel. I've wasted a fair amount of time in the past inserting an Inet control into a userform to get a web page's source code and extracting data from that.

Anyways, I'm not sure what your problem is. First, if you have an exact match, the table for VLOOKUP does not have to be in alphabetical order. Just use FALSE for the 4th argument.

Second, importing the data and sorting it can easily be automated with VBA macros. If you need any help, PM me.