AA-hand.

[kongo_totte]

Villian is 21/3.5 after 400 hands. He took very long time to act on the flop. Was afraid he'd fold QQ-TT (maybe even KK) if I bet the turn.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB ($61.15)
UTG ($40.75)
UTG+1 ($100.75)
UTG+2 ($49)
MP1 ($58.86)
MP2 ($49.50)
MP3 ($17.90)
CO ($74.37)
Hero ($49.75)
SB ($45.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $4.

Flop: ($12.75) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $9</font>, UTG+1 calls $9.

Turn: ($30.75) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($30.75) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $20</font>, Hero calls $20.

Final Pot: $70.75

Standard?

[gol4pro]

Me like, although I'm slightly scared he 2-outed you.

Anyway he has high cards here?

[bingledork]

I'd bet the turn.
Make it $10 if you're worried about losing him. Don't give him infinite odds for the suckout.

[ajmargarine]

I agree with Lennon. Given your read about losing him, I'd rather bet small the turn, a tad less than 1/2 pot would be my preference, and then bet small the river.

[Malachii]

I think I bet 1/2 pot on turn, but I don't hate checking if you really felt he was weak and would fold if you bet.

[ryanghall]

I don't like this one Kongo.

First of all, he raised preflop UTG+1. Since his PFR is only 3.5 and he's out of position, this means he has a hand. I would recommend reraising your Aces more preflop. Since he has a hand, he'll call.

I don't understand your logic for not betting the turn. You think he'll fold QQ-TT? Fine. Let him. You have the best hand and there are cards out there that can cost you a lot of money. He certainly doesn't have a 3. However, if he hits his 2 outer you're going to be in a world of hurt. If a 3 comes down, you're splitting. I strongly dislike not betting here. He's still going to try to see a cheap showdown on the river either way.

As played, I suppose you have to just call the river.

Ryan

[Go_Blue88]

i don't hate this. it's fine.

[MINETZ]

I think more than likely hes going to go into check calling mode after he calls the flop than check/fold with qq/kk. I think if you bet the turn you couldve gotten most of your money in. on the river you couldve gotten 2 outered, but he could also be betting KK for what he thinks is value.
Noah

[stu-unger]

i don't mind this at all. the turn check will pick up blocking bets, steal attempts, and VBs from villain if kongo is right. r we really worried about 2 outters??

[fimbulwinter]

pot the flop and turn

fim

[imported_anacardo]

[ QUOTE ]
pot the flop and turn

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

I asked you about why you advocate always showing strength &amp; building a pot, and found your response thought-provoking. Have you considered making a full, independent post delineating your philosophy in these kinds of situations? Could be the sweetest [censored] since "mmmm, mmmm, bitch."

[kongo_totte]

Ok, this is like my first serious math post and there are some wild assumptions and you probably can't make to much of this. Please let me know if you see any errors.

Assumptions:
He has JJ (leading to a split 9%, I win 86.5% and he wins 4.5%)
He will fold 75% if I bet $12 the turn
He will call a river push 90% if he calls turn
If I check he'll bet $15 20% of the time
If he bets, he'll call a push 50%
If I check, and he checks, he'll call $20 on the river 80%

This gives the alternatives:
1) I bet:
a) He folds - 75%
b) He calls turn and river - 22.5%
c) He calls turn and folds river 2.5%

2)I check
a) He bets $15 and calls a push - 10%
b) He bets and folds to a push - 10%
c) He checks and calls $20 on the river - 64%
d) He checks and folds the river - 16%

1a) EV= $30/hand - 75%
1b) EV= $55/hand - 22.5%
1c) EV= $42/hand - 2.5%

Total EV if I bet=(0.75*30)+(0.225*55)+(0.025*42)=$36/hand

2a) EV= $55/hand - 10%
2b) EV= $45/hand - 10%
2c) EV= $43.5/hand - 64%
2d) EV= $30/hand - 16%

Total EV if I check= (0.1*55)+(0.1*45)+(0.64*43.5)+(0.16*30)= $42.8/hand.

Yes, I was right to check /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

There are some parts that aren't correct, apart form the assumptions perhaps. For example, if I check the turn and he rivers a set, I'll lose $35, but I'll only win $20 etc. Don't know how much it matters.

This just turned out silly. I'm laughing my ass of at myself right now. Feel free to do the same.
Oh, well, it was a fun excercise.

Can these calculations be used as guidelines even the slightest?

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, this is like my first serious math post and there are some wild assumptions and you probably can't make to much of this. Please let me know if you see any errors.

Assumptions:
He has JJ (leading to a split 9%, I win 86.5% and he wins 4.5%)
He will fold 75% if I bet $12 the turn
He will call a river push 90% if he calls turn
If I check he'll bet $15 20% of the time
If he bets, he'll call a push 50%
If I check, and he checks, he'll call $20 on the river 80%

This gives the alternatives:
1) I bet:
a) He folds - 75%
b) He calls turn and river - 22.5%
c) He calls turn and folds river 2.5%

2)I check
a) He bets $15 and calls a push - 10%
b) He bets and folds to a push - 10%
c) He checks and calls $20 on the river - 64%
d) He checks and folds the river - 16%

1a) EV= $30/hand - 75%
1b) EV= $55/hand - 22.5%
1c) EV= $42/hand - 2.5%

Total EV if I bet=(0.75*30)+(0.225*55)+(0.025*42)=$36/hand

2a) EV= $55/hand - 10%
2b) EV= $45/hand - 10%
2c) EV= $43.5/hand - 64%
2d) EV= $30/hand - 16%

Total EV if I check= (0.1*55)+(0.1*45)+(0.64*43.5)+(0.16*30)= $42.8/hand.

Yes, I was right to check /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

There are some parts that aren't correct, apart form the assumptions perhaps. For example, if I check the turn and he rivers a set, I'll lose $35, but I'll only win $20 etc. Don't know how much it matters.

This just turned out silly. I'm laughing my ass of at myself right now. Feel free to do the same.
Oh, well, it was a fun excercise.

Can these calculations be used as guidelines even the slightest?

[/ QUOTE ]

Disregard this whole post. I got positions mixed up. I have to start reading my own posts /images/graemlins/laugh.gif.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pot the flop and turn

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

I asked you about why you advocate always showing strength &amp; building a pot, and found your response thought-provoking. Have you considered making a full, independent post delineating your philosophy in these kinds of situations? Could be the sweetest [censored] since "mmmm, mmmm, bitch."

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't quite get what you're asking here. the reason i'm saying full speed ahead here is that hero is killing villains likely hand range and won't have any problem getting action.

fim

[kongo_totte]

He has 3 2s for the turned straight. SHANIA!!!