A Little Confused.....

Say you have 9 outs to hit a flush so your a 4.22 to 1 dog. Dividing 1/4.22 yields the percentage of times you will make your hand (~23%), correct? Or do you need to divide 9/47 (19%) to get the percentage of time you'll hit?

[Quicksilvre]

I assume this is a hold'em question, on the turn.

There are two cards in your hand, and four on the board, leaving 46 unaccounted-for cards. Your chance of hitting is the number of outs divided by total possible cards, or 9/46--almost 20%.

If you mean on the flop, then you have to calculate what percent of the time you won't hit the flush, which is (38/47)x(37/46), to find out how often you will hit.

I think I got that right. I might beed backup.

Yes, this is hold'em. I've seen people calculate odds by just putting the # of outs of the total # of unseens (i.e. 9/47). I know the correct way is to subtract #unseens - #outs, which gives 38, and then divide 9/38. Whats the diff. between the two methods (other than the results, of course).

[Quicksilvre]

If you want the % of the time you'll hit, you'll use 9/47. If you want odds, you'll use 38/9.

[pif]

to calculate toe % from the odds u do this:

1:4.22 = 1/(4.22+1)=1/5.22=19%

now u understand?

[OrangeKing]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, this is hold'em. I've seen people calculate odds by just putting the # of outs of the total # of unseens (i.e. 9/47). I know the correct way is to subtract #unseens - #outs, which gives 38, and then divide 9/38. Whats the diff. between the two methods (other than the results, of course).

[/ QUOTE ]

There's your problem - I think you're just slightly confused. 9/47 would give you the % chance of hitting a flush; 9/38 just gives you the odds against hitting a flush - as you said, 4.22-1 (I think) against;, this isn't 1 in 4.22, however; it's actually 1 in 5.22. It just means that for every 4.22 times you miss your flush on the next card, you'll hit it once.

[ohnonotthat]

I think he was asking how to calculate the chance of hitting his hand with only the river card unseen.

If so, in order to change the fraction into a percentage simply perform the fraction and multiply the result by 100.

Still, your description was correct and well put if the task is to calculate the chance of hitting with more than one card remaining.

In plain English, the reason you cannot ADD the chance of hitting it the first time you try (turn) to the chance of hitting it the second time you try (river) is that this formula does not take into account the fact that you may hit it twice.

- BTW, the chance of hitting it twice increases dramatically if your hand contains two low cards AND you've been running badly and increases even more if you are almost out of money.

- So help me I heard that in a cardroom last week. (Yikes)