Odds on gigabet

[shaniac]

I respect Gigabet's MTT game and unique level of dedication and stamina as much as the next guy, but I don't think he's anywhere near a 2-1 favorite to win the Augugst TLB.

I seriously doubt it's possible, even for the best Pokerstars MTT player, to be any kind of substantial 'favorite' to win such a prop bet, especially since the structure of the TLB doesn't give that big an edge to volume-players and since other talented and capable players (some more experienced in TLB-whoring) are going to put in an effort to block gigabet this month.

Can anyone with a better grasp of expectation and probability give some idea of gigabet's actual chances of winning this bet?

[ClaytonN]

The probability has to be factored on the weighting of finish distribution and buyin amount.

For instance, if the TLB is topheavy in its max points distribution, then Giga is less of a favorite. At the moment he is playing easily 5-6 tournaments at a time for a substantial portion of the day, so the less topheavy the system is the bigger a favorite he is.

I say that only on the basis that I don't think guys like Sheets and gank are playing that much, but I could be wrong. I'm well aware of the fact that Giga goes for the win.

[DrunkIrish05]

I find this whole thing really interesting, and I've checked both giga and gank's tables a decent amount of times the last few days and gank seems to be playing just as much as giga so far. Also, didn't giga say that he had alot to do the first half of the month and would do the bulk of his playing the last 2 weeks? This has to be factored in too.

[colson10]

I think normally, if no one knew about the bet, he would be around even money, maybe a small favorite if he was putting in serious work. With the bet being public, and nip/tuck putting the 5K bounty on it, and not to mention the prestige of winning it with everyone watching, I think he's a dog. I'd put him at around 3:1 I think.

colson10

[TomHimself]

Yea giga is in Europe and said in a room that he wasnt playing his hardest but playing his A game. nip/tuck said something about he is flying to hawaii to get a extra 1/2 a day or something which confuses me, something with time zones i guess

[TheTimeIsUp]

[ QUOTE ]
I think normally, if no one knew about the bet, he would be around even money, maybe a small favorite if he was putting in serious work. With the bet being public, and nip/tuck putting the 5K bounty on it, and not to mention the prestige of winning it with everyone watching, I think he's a dog. I'd put him at around 3:1 I think.

colson10

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you say he's the individual favorite though?

[colson10]

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I think normally, if no one knew about the bet, he would be around even money, maybe a small favorite if he was putting in serious work. With the bet being public, and nip/tuck putting the 5K bounty on it, and not to mention the prestige of winning it with everyone watching, I think he's a dog. I'd put him at around 3:1 I think.

colson10

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you say he's the individual favorite though?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's definitely him or gank. They're both very capable of playing many tables well, and they're both great players. I haven't played too much with Gig (at least that I'm aware of), but I think it would be tough for him to be better than gank in online MTT's. From what I've read and heard, it sounds like Gig might be a better overall player than gank (I obviously don't really know), but when talking about online MTT's it's hard to believe he's better.

colson10

[TheTimeIsUp]

Couldn't say it better myself. Gank seems more determined than ever before to prove he is the 'best online MTTer'. Giga also has little to no MTT cred.

[ClaytonN]

Gank and Giga will both play a crapload of tournaments, but all in all it boils down to who catches a streak of big MTT scores.

I would easily put Giga and Gank and Sheets "up there", but Giga's odds have to be somewhere around 2:1, maybe even as high as 4:1.

I just made a bet against Giga at even money, so I'm pleased. I think anyone else would make the bet, too.

[Roman]

While it may be true that gigabet has little to no MTT "cred", who cares? He knows what he is doing, and would not take this bet unless he was sure it was +EV. His play is respected and feared for a reason.

[ClaytonN]

[ QUOTE ]
While it may be true that gigabet has little to no MTT "cred", who cares? He knows what he is doing, and would not take this bet unless he was sure it was +EV. His play is respected and feared for a reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you underestimate the factor of luck when it comes to playing a lot of MTT's.

IMO, this looked like Darrell giving himself incentive w/ something of a challenge. But I'd have to reread his initial prop bet post to check.

[shaniac]

If not for the aspect of their added-effort, gank and gigabet wouldn't be remarkable favorites in any given month against a wide range of TLB-capable players.

I don't see why riverloser, bigslick789, johnnybax, johnster or a host of others (maybe Teecoy will come back) couldn't have a really good shot of winning the bet if they tried.

I agree that gank and gigabet are going to have an edge this month, but this contest isn't about to prove definitively who is the 'best.'

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

For instance, if the TLB is topheavy in its max points distribution, then Giga is less of a favorite. At the moment he is playing easily 5-6 tournaments at a time for a substantial portion of the day, so the less topheavy the system is the bigger a favorite he is.

[/ QUOTE ]

The system is hugely topheavy. The points scale inversely (actually, I think the square root of the inverse) with where you finish, so moving up a couple spots at the final table makes a big difference. Also, only your top 20 (I think 20 is the number) results for the month are kept. The algorithm for determining Stars points is available on their website.

[Roman]

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I don't see why riverloser, bigslick789, johnnybax, johnster or a host of others (maybe Teecoy will come back) couldn't have a really good shot of winning the bet if they tried.


[/ QUOTE ]

There is a reason why they are not taking this bet.. and im guessing for most of these players (the ones for whom the time it would take to play all these tournies isnt an issue) it is because they think the bet is -EV.

[colson10]

[ QUOTE ]
If not for the aspect of their added-effort, gank and gigabet wouldn't be remarkable favorites in any given month against a wide range of TLB-capable players.

I don't see why riverloser, bigslick789, johnnybax, johnster or a host of others (maybe Teecoy will come back) couldn't have a really good shot of winning the bet if they tried.

I agree that gank and gigabet are going to have an edge this month, but this contest isn't about to prove definitively who is the 'best.'

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that there are many players who could take this down. It's really going to depend on who wants to do it. I think if it's not gank or gigabet, it will be someone who starts out fast and decides to make a go of it. Obviously the guys you mentioned are capable of having a huge month, but it's going to depend on how much they play.

Whatever happens, it should be fun to watch.

colson10

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Giga also has little to no MTT cred.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the guy has a great understanding of poker, taking some MTT considerations into account is trivial. I'll put my money on the stronger, smarter poker player over the "MTT cred" every time.

[TheTimeIsUp]

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Giga also has little to no MTT cred.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the guy has a great understanding of poker, taking some MTT considerations into account is trivial. I'll put my money on the stronger, smarter poker player over the "MTT cred" every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not my point. Giga has yet to show that he is capable of tearing of MTTs. I do not think it is fair to give him full credit because of his repution for SNGs or his theories.

[Firefly]

There is a certain increase in luck that it take to have top finishes in MTT's then it is in STTs. Coinflips generally need to be taken and won to get high finishes and thus the high variance of tourney poker runs against Giga.
Is he the best player? Maybe? The gods of variance are just soo strong in MTT play that it's hard to equate STTs with MTTs

[Roman]

How many MTTs do you think gigabet will play this month on pokerstars?

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]
How many MTTs do you think gigabet will play this month on pokerstars?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd guess he'll have to play well over 100 to have a shot.

[Firefly]

alot. If i were him i'd play every tourney i could and he's close to doing that.
Personally, i'd love to do what he is doing right now.
He's a great player- no one doubts that, but it is possible to go through tremendous downspells in MTTs (because on stars it does eventually become a slight crapshoot) Though you have a point that only his top 20 finishes matter. I guess that dampens variance... okay i have to think more about this.

[billyjex]

He's got some MTT cred with me (http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=42079)

[IHateKeithSmart]

Yeah, he's playing 4 right now. Does anyone think it's possible to win 20 MTTs in one month?

[colson10]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How many MTTs do you think gigabet will play this month on pokerstars?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd guess he'll have to play well over 100 to have a shot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure he'll play AT LEAST 300, probably over 400.

colson10

[SharkBait]

Where is the info on Giga's challenge?

Nevermind. Googled it.

[riverdance]

how much of a factor is the buyin?

what is more points, winning a 120 person $109 buyin, or a 1500 person $1 buyin?

[iMsoLucky0]

[ QUOTE ]
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Giga also has little to no MTT cred.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the guy has a great understanding of poker, taking some MTT considerations into account is trivial. I'll put my money on the stronger, smarter poker player over the "MTT cred" every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not my point. Giga has yet to show that he is capable of tearing of MTTs. I do not think it is fair to give him full credit because of his repution for SNGs or his theories.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's just not true at all. He has won every big tournament on partypoker, as well as many on stars. This doesn't even mention what he has done in live poker. Just because you are not aware of what he has done, doesn't mean it hasn't happened.

[TheTimeIsUp]

[ QUOTE ]
how much of a factor is the buyin?

what is more points, winning a 120 person $109 buyin, or a 1500 person $1 buyin?

[/ QUOTE ]

twodimes.net

[TheTimeIsUp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Giga also has little to no MTT cred.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the guy has a great understanding of poker, taking some MTT considerations into account is trivial. I'll put my money on the stronger, smarter poker player over the "MTT cred" every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not my point. Giga has yet to show that he is capable of tearing of MTTs. I do not think it is fair to give him full credit because of his repution for SNGs or his theories.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's just not true at all. He has won every big tournament on partypoker, as well as many on stars. This doesn't even mention what he has done in live poker. Just because you are not aware of what he has done, doesn't mean it hasn't happened.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hm. I guess that is why he claims he changes his name every 3 weeks. Sorry for offending you Lucky.

[iMsoLucky0]

That's just not true at all. He has won every big tournament on partypoker, as well as many on stars. This doesn't even mention what he has done in live poker. Just because you are not aware of what he has done, doesn't mean it hasn't happened.

[Gigabet]

[ QUOTE ]
That's just not true at all. He has won every big tournament on partypoker, as well as many on stars. This doesn't even mention what he has done in live poker. Just because you are not aware of what he has done, doesn't mean it hasn't happened.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please Jordan, and the others who know all my screen names, don't make posts like this anymore.

[curtains]

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I don't see why riverloser, bigslick789, johnnybax, johnster or a host of others (maybe Teecoy will come back) couldn't have a really good shot of winning the bet if they tried.


[/ QUOTE ]



There is a reason why they are not taking this bet.. and im guessing for most of these players (the ones for whom the time it would take to play all these tournies isnt an issue) it is because they think the bet is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm probably the reason they arent taking this bet is because it's a waste of their time. I suspect the players involved in this bet are doing it mainly for bragging rights, as there's no way that playing small buyin MTTs nonstop on pokerstars is the highest EV situation for them, even with whatever $$ is at stake.

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]
While it may be true that gigabet has little to no MTT "cred", who cares? He knows what he is doing, and would not take this bet unless he was sure it was +EV. His play is respected and feared for a reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its much more likely that he was running his mouth to his friend one day about how easy it would be for him to win the TLB and his friend told him to put his money where his mouth is. And proving he has a big cock was worth way more than the prospect of losing whatever the bet was.

[iMsoLucky0]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
While it may be true that gigabet has little to no MTT "cred", who cares? He knows what he is doing, and would not take this bet unless he was sure it was +EV. His play is respected and feared for a reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its much more likely that he was running his mouth to his friend one day about how easy it would be for him to win the TLB and his friend told him to put his money where his mouth is. And proving he has a big cock was worth way more than the prospect of losing whatever the bet was.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not true.