An obvious "any two" spot... or is it?

[samr]

Party $10+1 SNG, 200/400 blinds, not going up soon

I make this move with any two (I posted earlier how i made this move with 35o) and I believe that is standard. However, my question is which hands should Villain be calling with here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t3907)
SB (t685) <-- Shorty
BB (t1660)
UTG (t1748) <-- Villain

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Villain raises to 900, Hero insta-pushes.

Let's try some ICM analysis:
Villian folds: icm$EV = 0.1994
Villain calls and loses: icm$EV = 0
Villian calls and wins: icm$EV = 0.3797

How often does he have to be good for calling/folding to be neutral $EV?
.1994 = 0.3797*x + 0*(1-x)
x = .525

Villain has to 52.5% against my range to make calling a decent play.

That's a pretty wide range! He should almost certainly be calling with anything he's raising with.

So, is this REALLY an "any two" spot?

[KingDan]

[ QUOTE ]
Party $10+1 SNG, 200/400 blinds, not going up soon

I make this move with any two (I posted earlier how i made this move with 35o) and I believe that is standard. However, my question is which hands should Villain be calling with here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t3907)
SB (t685) <-- Shorty
BB (t1660)
UTG (t1748) <-- Villain

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Villain raises to 900, Hero insta-pushes.

Let's try some ICM analysis:
Villian folds: icm$EV = 0.1994
Villain calls and loses: icm$EV = 0
Villian calls and wins: icm$EV = 0.3797

How often does he have to be good for calling/folding to be neutral $EV?
.1994 = 0.3797*x + 0*(1-x)
x = .525

Villain has to 52.5% against my range to make calling a decent play.

That's a pretty wide range! He should almost certainly be calling with anything he's raising with.

So, is this REALLY an "any two" spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is not an any 2 spot. You cannot expect him to fold, if he does he is not in much better shape than the short stack. He needs more chips to make this profitable IMO.

[citanul]

a) who's the villain here? (not that i dont konw, just thought it should be pointed out that you're entirely unclear about this in the OP.

b) making fancy plays based on the gap at the 10s with any two is likely to get you hurt in the long run. they don't know how to fold.

c) expecting someone to fold in a spot like this because ICM says it's a slight fold is idiotic.

citanul

[ldavidjm]

No lower level players are folding here to your push. You're throwing away chips if you're pushing any two back at them here.