When Pushing is less -EV than Folding

[Jman28]

So, there are those times, when you are near the bubble, or on it, or ITM, or whatever, where you're in a tough spot.

You don't have a hand, or many chips, but you can't wait around forever, as you'll be blinded off (especially in an aggressive game).

My question is: How does one judge the EV of waiting around? I'll pose an example...

Stacks:
BB - 2000
SB - 3500
BTN - 4000
Hero - 950

Blinds are 100/200 and you are dealt 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

If we assume the SB and BTN will call with 44+, A6+, KJ+, and that the BB will call 22+, A2+, KT+, QJ, the ICM calculations show that pushing results in an EV difference of -.3% of the prize pool.

However, we'll be in the BB next hand and lose a decent chunk of our chips most of the time.

Do any of you have a rough way of calculating this? Or certain things that factor into decisions like these? Or a general guideline to abide by?

How about this specific example? Push? Fold?

Anything?

Thanks.

[bjb23]

eastbay just talked about this the other day.

link (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=300 7795&Forum=&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=3007 099&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=5671&daterange= 1&newerval=1&newertype=w&olderval=&oldertype=&body prev=#Post3007795)

this might provide some insight. apparently im too stupid to link. here is the quote

There's an important thing to consider for SnGPT analysis UTG, and the current version of SnGPT does not do it automatically, although it's something that's going in very soon, to be more user-friendly for newer or less familiar users for hands exactly like this.

Here's the deal: Your "$EV fold" which provides the baseline for comparison against your push is computed from your stack after you fold this hand, but before you post any blinds in any future hands.

If you are going to be taking a big blind hit in the next hand, you really should be discounting your fold equity.

This is very easy to do. Just take the big blind out of your stack NOW and recalculate. You should consider your fold equity to be somewhere between the nominal value and the discounted value. In a very passive game, where you are likely to get a pass in your BB, you should consider it to be closer to the pre-blind value. In a more aggressive game, were you are not likely to get a pass, you should consider it to be much closer to the discounted value. Exactly where to choose is a matter of judgement based on the game conditions, but it is probably reasonable to just pick the discounted value as a conservative default.

Now compare THIS new "$EV fold" to your original "$EV push". I think this answer will be less surprising, although you are still subject to horrid position here, so the true range may be far tighter than you realized even with the discounting adjustment.

Look for an update soon that automatically takes care of this position based equity discounting.

eastbay

bj

[Jman28]

Thanks. Can't believe I missed this. Makes sense.