What's your game plan? - Big hand #1 vs weak tighty

[JTG51]

I raise UTG with A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif K /forums/images/icons/club.gif . UTG+1 3-bets. Everyone folds and I call.

UTG+1 is very tight and plays pretty well. He errs towards weak tight though, making some big laydowns that are probably a bit too big. With that in mind...

Flop: A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif K /forums/images/icons/heart.gif Q /forums/images/icons/club.gif

What's your game plan for the rest of this hand?

[pufferfish]

Flop: Bet into him and see what happens.

[travisand]

Flop--I would bet into him and if raised I would reraise and then call if capped.

Turn--Check call, assuming it was not the ace.

River--Same as turn.

[lil']

I would play it in a similar fashion. I won't worry about the case ace or king unless he gives me good reason to.

[Clarkmeister]

Why does everyone want to go to war with a hand that is chopping at best?

[JTG51]

I'm wondering the same thing.

I think folding would be a much better option than betting and raising.

[JTG51]

I won't worry about the case ace or king unless he gives me good reason to.

He did give me good reason to worry. He 3-bet before the flop. Also, there are two aces and two kings left, not one of each.

What hand do you put a weak tight 3-bettor on that I'm ahead of on this flop? JJ? Will a weak tight player give me any action on that flop with JJ?

[docidiot]

While going to war may not be your best option, why would you ever fold this? If you are going to fold now, why not fold to his 3 bet?

[JTG51]

While going to war may not be your best option, why would you ever fold this?

I didn't say I'd fold, or that it was a good option. Only that it was better than going to war.

...why not fold to his 3 bet?

There are a lot of flops that don't hit me as hard that I'd rather give action on.

[lil']

Well, unless he's got both aces or both kings you dont have to worry about them.

Ah hell, it's too late to be thinking. Good thing I have no job. So I take it you advocate checking and calling all the way, since you don't want to raise or fold. His most likely holdings are A-K and Q-Q and J-J. One you lose, one you split, and one you get no action at all. You also lose if he has the other two aces or kings. I was too aggressive in my thinking. This why I don't play after 12:00. I just fire chips in the pot when I get tired.

[docidiot]

There are a lot of flops that don't hit me as hard that I'd rather give action on.

well, lets see...

A x x? Now, he has to have KK or QQ for you to be ahead.
K x x? Now, he has to have QQ for you to be ahead.
Q J T? Probably, the best flop for you (other than AAK or AAA).
3 spades? Not a bad flop at all.
3 clubs? ditto, unless he as the ace.

There are definitely flops that you prefer to AKQ. but, what about the times when he three bets with JJ or TT or AQ? you are ahead on all of the above, plus AKQ.

i guess my point is that unless he is so weak-tight that he only bets/reraises the nuts, why not put in atleast a raise on the flop, and see what is going on. i think if you consider folding these types of hands without getting some information, you might as well not be playing them. plus, if he can make such huge laydowns, there is a chance you can get him to fold his AK. also notice that there is only one way he can have AA or KK, and only three ways he can have QQ. i think there is a decent chance you are ahead, a better chance you are tied, and unfortunately, a fair chance you are behind (decent, better, and fair are all technical probabilistic terms). you will never get him to laydown in the instances you are behind, but since he is weak tight, you stand to lose very little in these situations, but perhaps gain more when you are ahead or tied (since he will lay down).

[Ed Miller]

Why does everyone want to go to war with a hand that is chopping at best?

Exactly. This is not a good flop for your hand. If you get any action at all (i.e. your opponent doesn't have JJ), then you are cruising for a bruising.

[JTG51]

Good analysis, I think I should clarify a couple of points though.

There are definitely flops that you prefer to AKQ. but, what about the times when he three bets with JJ or TT or AQ?

I really don't think he'd 3-bet AQ against my UTG raise. If we take away that possibility it swings thing way in his favor on this flop.

i think if you consider folding these types of hands without getting some information, you might as well not be playing them.

Once again, I didn't say I'd fold, just that it was better than going to war.

...why not put in atleast a raise on the flop, and see what is going on.

I don't think putting in one raise on the flop is unreasonable. I think we are just having a little trouble with semantics here. When I say go to war, I don't mean just one raise, I mean raising and reraising. I know I wasn't very clear with my initial comment. The post that I was referring to when I said I'd rather fold than go to war was the one that suggested betting then 3-betting if raised.

I hope that clarifies things a bit.

[docidiot]

fair enough. for the record, i dont think you were advocating folding immediately. folding obviously is reasonable if he really plays back at you. but, you do seem to indicate that he would 3 bet with JJ or TT. if that is so, then given teh flop of AKQ, there are 4 ways you are beaten (AA, one way, KK, one, QQ, three), 4 ways you are tied (AK), and 12 ways you are ahead (6 each for JJ, TT). so, you are only losing 20% of the time, ahead 60%, and tied 20%. i say give action on the flop, fold if he doesnt slow down, and keep betting if he does. maybe he will fold his AK.

[PokerPrince]

No way you should go to war here. Against a mega tight 3-bettor you're chopping at best with an AKs. It's easier to be said that done but with your poor position and that dangerous board I think checking and folding to a bet is a sound plan.

[Homer]

Check-call. Check-call. Check-call. If he checks behind you on the turn, bet the river. If he checks behind you on the flop, he either has a monster, JJ, or TT (depends on this opponent, so you would know better than I would). Play the rest of the hand accordingly.

-- Homer

[JTG51]

Check-call. Check-call. Check-call.

That's the plan I settled on. Poker Prince may be right that a check fold is in order, but I couldn't bring myself to do it.

I check called the flop, the turn was a K. I checked and he checked behind. I bet the river and he called. My hand was obviously good. He had QQ and seriously thought about folding on the river (like I said, weak tight!).

[Clarkmeister]

"I check called the flop, the turn was a K. I checked and he checked behind. I bet the river and he called. My hand was obviously good. He had QQ and seriously thought about folding on the river (like I said, weak tight!). "

Exactly what hand is he supposed to be beating right now?

[JTG51]

Exactly what hand is he supposed to be beating right now?

Fair enough, but would you ever fold in his spot given the action?

[Clarkmeister]

Depends on if I think you are dumb enough to try and value bet an ace or bluff with JJ on that board. /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

Obviously, I'd call every time, but that doesn't mean its right, and I certainly wouldn't be happy that you bet.

PS: If you think he would always bet AA on the turn headsup, you have an easy checkraise on the river.

[JTG51]

Depends on if I think you are dumb enough to try and value bet an ace or bluff with JJ on that board.

I am, I'm not sure if he knows that though. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

PS: If you think he would always bet AA on the turn headsup, you have an easy checkraise on the river.

Great point, I didn't think of that. I very rarely look for the river check raise, especially when the turn is checked through.

[Louie Landale]

Tighties won't 3-bet with AQ; nor would reasonable players when the other reasonable player raised UTG. This means that either you are a big favorite or a big dog on the flop. You just cannot fold on the flop since he can easily bet JJ or TT, and you are getting about 8:1 for your 12:1 full house draw. You can, however, fold on the turn IF he bets.

OK, I read the results. From the opponent's perspective, you can easily have AJ so he really CANNOT fold on the river once he's invited a bet with his turn check. He may have been THINKING about folding, but that doesn't mean he will actually fold very often in that situation.

- Louie

[John Gaspar]

I've read the other posts and agree with the check call posters with one caveat.

One question I would ask is he that weak/tight that he might throw away his set or top two to a turn or river check raise if a 10 or jack came, I would probably bet out the flop, and call his raise. This could set up your steal on the turn or river if he too has AK.