5-5 FW deep stacks tricky situation

[aggie]

1 limper, bad player raises to 30, solid player ($1650) calls from cuttoff, i call from BB w/ 5-5 and limper calls. I cover everybody

4 players ($125)

Flop 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I lead for $100, fold, fold, solid player raises to $500. He has $1120 left.

Hero?

I don't have much of a read on solid player but he seems to play well (somewhere between taggish and laggish?)....He doesn't know much about me either but may consider me to be a maniac (i'm not sure). He definitely knows i'm aggressive.

The stack sizes are kind of weird here. Sorry if the answer is obvious but just wanted to get some opinions.

[Yeti]

Push.

[fimbulwinter]

against what logical hand range is this anything but a push?

fim

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
against what logical hand range is this anything but a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

6-7 and 8-8 are the only ones.....But i think they are fairly likely in this situation.

[Big_Jim]

Hands we're behind:

67s (4 combos, would he play 67o for a raise? Doubt it.) And it's 2:1 against improving
88 (3 combos) And we're basically drawing dead.

Hands we're ahead of:

44 (3 combos) And he's basically drawing dead
45s (1 combo) drawing basically dead
Overpairs 99-JJ And he has 2 outs
Flush draws (Lots of combos.) 2:1 against him
Flush draw with a pair (89s, A8s) 2:1 against him
Straight flush draw (78s, 68s) 3:2 against him
Bluff: Drawing nearly dead.

His hand range seems really wide on this one, and we are way ahead of the majority of it (feel free to remove any of the hands above that you don't think fit)

Way too many cards that could kill your action/beat you on the turn to do anything but push here, I think, given stack sizes.

After calling his bet, there's $1125 in the pot, and he's getting 2:1 on your push anyway, so go ahead and push.

This is particularly true, since he might think you're a maniac, which vastly increases his calling range.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
against what logical hand range is this anything but a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

6-7 and 8-8 are the only ones.....But i think they are fairly likely in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you think his hand range is strictly 67 and 88?

so he folds A8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 68/images/graemlins/spade.gif 78/images/graemlins/spade.gif 89/images/graemlins/spade.gif 44, 99, and 45?

fim

[Laomedon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
against what logical hand range is this anything but a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

6-7 and 8-8 are the only ones.....But i think they are fairly likely in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

So they're two hands that you're behind, both in the Villain's likely hand range. Wouldn't something like A8s or 45s, also be in that range? I think that there are a whole mess of hands that this Villain could reraise with in this spot that you're ahead of. I probably push in this spot without a specific indication that I'm dead or behind to 67s.

[The Bear]

Looks like a perfect board to put the money in the middle. I push.

[turnipmonster]

if you just call, you extract more value from tenous overpair type hands (99-TT) which he may fold if you raise. problem with that is there are not very many safe turn cards for him, so you may not end up gaining a lot of extra value. also there are not that many tenous overpairs he can have, partifcularly if he is smart enough to repop bad player with the normal range.

I think folding cannot really be discussed meaningfully. if you know that you are beat then fold, otherwise get the money in. I personally would only ever consider folding bottom set in a spot like this.

--turnipmonster

[jrforman]

I think you have to be nearly 100% certain that villain has 88 here to fold...Since that is unlikely given your image/read, I think this is an easy push. Also, you have to take into account he is closing the action here and has position on you, which makes it less likely he has you beat here in my opinion.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, you have to take into account he is closing the action here

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

[thabadguy]

Aggie, the thing is..no1 in their right mind can advise you to fold here. I think that is very very dependent on the player. I know a lotta times at fw such bets are the nuts, but that is very player dependent. If you are looking for some1 to say "fold" im afraid it isnt gonna come.

[FatalError]

fwiw i don't even think he's playing deep enough to make anything but a push correct, if he had 2000 more left i'd just call and play the turn

[aggie]

Great post...I'm certainly not disagreeing with you. But if we're going to have a discussion here, let me play devils advocate.

[ QUOTE ]

67s (4 combos, would he play 67o for a raise? Doubt it.) And it's 2:1 against improving
88 (3 combos) And we're basically drawing dead.
44 (3 combos) And he's basically drawing dead


[/ QUOTE ]

These, i think, are far and away the most likely hands that he'd raise to $500 with. They are all probably equally likely. I think there is a reasonable chance he's going to fold 4-4 if i push. i also think 67os is a possibility since we are playing deep stack poker

[ QUOTE ]
45s (1 combo) drawing basically dead
Overpairs 99-JJ And he has 2 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

He's folding these hands if i push. I also think they are far less likely and i think he's more likely to either raise less or call with these hands (the overpairs in particular.

[ QUOTE ]
Flush draws (Lots of combos.) 2:1 against him
Flush draw with a pair (89s, A8s) 2:1 against him
Straight flush draw (78s, 68s) 3:2 against him
Bluff: Drawing nearly dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just didn't think this guy is aggressive enough to be pushing his draws so hard. That was my gut anyway....Maybe i did not describe him well? Problem was i had not played with him long so i could not be sure.

So yes....There's lots of hands i'm ahead of but the ones that i'm behind are far more likely to be making that raise. That raise seemed VERY strong to me.

[aggie]

Wow a lot of good and quick replies. I'm somewhat suprised how one-sided they are as i thought this was more on the borderline...

When he raised to $500 my instinct told me he was VERY strong.....But that read is very hard to quantify which is why i did not include it in the OP...I was far from certain....

I thought about this forever because i really thought i was beat. I think my bet on the flop was strong so a huge raise screams a huge hand...Of course my image may have damaged this somewhat.....

So i started asking questions....."how much do you have behind"..."how much is that in bills"...."how much in chips"..."how much EXACTLY is the total"....He answered my questions fairly calmly which was not a good sign....

Anyway, i thought forever (which i rarely do) and finally i decided to put him allin.....He had 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif....

"thank god...I've still got some outs" /images/graemlins/smile.gif

APOLOGY: sorry if this post was not educational...It was mostly for my own peace of mind.

edited to add apology

[thabadguy]

Aggie,I hope you dont mind me saying this..but to me it seems that u have had ur sets run into straights a few times and lost big pots due to that, and that seems to have bearing on such hands.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
Aggie,I hope you dont mind me saying this..but to me it seems that u have had ur sets run into straights a few times and lost big pots due to that, and that seems to have bearing on such hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah....I've probably had my sets beat just about my fair share....The hand against you was bothersome because i had to back my set with 500bb's when i thought it was fairly likely i was beat. This hand just made feel like an idiot. I thought i was beat, yet i pushed anyway...So maybe i was just trying to get some reasurance.

On another note, the reason i'm able to buyin to the FW game for 500 bb's is because i rarely get put to the test. ML4L recently wrote:

"I don't mind being put to the test. As long as i pass the test"

Well, i hate getting put to the test....I like putting others to the test. I hope to get to ML4L's level some day although i doubt it is possible for me.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
Great post...I'm certainly not disagreeing with you. But if we're going to have a discussion here, let me play devils advocate.

[ QUOTE ]

67s (4 combos, would he play 67o for a raise? Doubt it.) And it's 2:1 against improving
88 (3 combos) And we're basically drawing dead.
44 (3 combos) And he's basically drawing dead


[/ QUOTE ]

These, i think, are far and away the most likely hands that he'd raise to $500 with. They are all probably equally likely. I think there is a reasonable chance he's going to fold 4-4 if i push. i also think 67os is a possibility since we are playing deep stack poker



[/ QUOTE ]

Villian isn't folding any of these hands, even 44. If he is, he is making a big mistake, considering your image. You're right though, stacks are so deep that 67o is a possibility, putting it up from 4 to 16 combos.

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
45s (1 combo) drawing basically dead
Overpairs 99-JJ And he has 2 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

He's folding these hands if i push. I also think they are far less likely and i think he's more likely to either raise less or call with these hands (the overpairs in particular.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, if you push, he folds these hands. However, if you call, what do you do on the turn?

a) if a blank hits, or the board pairs.
If you lead strong again, he still folds these hands
If you check, I think he checks behind
b) If the flush card hits
If you lead, he might have you beat and push
If he doesn't have you beat, he probably folds
If you check, he takes his free card to beat you.
c) If he catches his 2 outer, you lose your ass

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Flush draws (Lots of combos.) 2:1 against him
Flush draw with a pair (89s, A8s) 2:1 against him
Straight flush draw (78s, 68s) 3:2 against him
Bluff: Drawing nearly dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just didn't think this guy is aggressive enough to be pushing his draws so hard. That was my gut anyway....Maybe i did not describe him well? Problem was i had not played with him long so i could not be sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has any of these hands (except a bluff), he's pot committed, and basically has to call. If he folds, great.

[ QUOTE ]

So yes....There's lots of hands i'm ahead of but the ones that i'm behind are far more likely to be making that raise. That raise seemed VERY strong to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, this is very player dependant.

However, considering a combination of the fact that you don't know him very well, and the fact that you think he might think that you're a maniac... I still think a push is best.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, i hate getting put to the test....I like putting others to the test. I hope to get to ML4L's level some day although i doubt it is possible for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

imo the key to big bet poker is confidence. people can write about reading players, mental recall, quick math aptitude, etc. but it all comes down to confidence.

this sounds corny, so if it is, just move on, but believe in yourself, aggie.