On the bubble - what's the correct play here?

[ChoicestHops]

First off, reads:

All four players are moderately loose around the bubble. Nothing can be certain but getting called by a pair, Ax, KQ, KJ, or two high cards is highly probable

Total number of players : 4
CO: Donk #1 ( $2080 )
SB: Donk #2 ( $2450 )
BB: Donk #3 ( $2005 )
UTG: Hero ( $1465 )
Trny:14509800 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 5h 5d ]
Hero...

[Maulik]

I'm pushing this everytime & not thinking about doing otherwise. You need the chips & if you get called you can play for first.

[ChoicestHops]

I agree chips are needed. That's the first thing I thought of at the time. If you vote respond with your reasoning, people.

Pushing here will likely make CO and SB fold since most people tighten up when it's down to four and SB probably won't care about losing t100 with his chip stack.

As for BB, he might be more inclined to call, but since your stack is enough to cripple him if he loses, I'd say he's at least 60% to fold and you're likely a 50% favorite if he does call with overs. Therefore, you win the blinds 60% of the time, double up 20%, and get knocked out 20% of the time. I say it's a push. What do others think of my math here, as this is my first attempt at a math post?

[BadMongo]

I think this is really close. With the given calling ranges for the other 3 players, pushing UTG with a small pair is really dangerous. You are very likely to be called, and when you are you'll be either way behind to an overpair or a coinflip to overcards. 300 chips is nice and all, but you're not desperate yet. Plus, by waiting there is a good chance two of the donks go at it and one gets knocked out.

I voted fold.

[ChoicestHops]

I pushed here obviously and lost to a A7o. I ran this through ICM and it was -EV to push against the range of hands I presented and even against maniacs. I was surprised.

[Hornacek]

pooosh

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I pushed here obviously and lost to a A7o. I ran this through ICM and it was -EV to push against the range of hands I presented and even against maniacs. I was surprised.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's going to be more +EV to push against tighter people, not looser people.

they won't be nearly as loose as you describe (there's no way button calls with QJ, for example).