Observed $5/$10 hand

[iceman5]

I watched this hand and because the guys are regulars in my game, I want to get an opinion on this hand.

All players have about $1000

UTG limps, MP raises to $50. SB calls with QT of clubs. UTG reraises to $130. MP and SB both call.

SBs play is what Im asking about. I already think hes made 2 mistakes, but Im more concerned with the flop.

Pot is $400. The flop comes Ac Qh 4c. SB checks, UTG bets $100, MP folds.

UTG is going to have AA or KK here everytime. he limp reraised preflop which almost marrows to AA/KK already, but then he only bets $100 into a $400 pot. He either has KK and is afraid of the A, or he has a set of aces and doesnt want to scare anyone off. Either way, its a bad bet, but then the SB goes all in.

This cant possibly correct can it? If UTG has AA, hes not folding and QTs is a 2-1 dog.

If UTG has KK, he'll fold of course, but do you need to push to fold him? How about just calling getting 4:1 on your money?

The push is horrible, correct?

[redtrain]

Not knowing villians tendencies, I put villian on a set with that small a bet. KK would either bet bigger or just give up. It's still too small a bet, as you now have odds to chase a flush. I would dump a club that pairs a board, and c/r turn if I catch.

[hit_the_set]

Wouldnt this be a good situation to employ the delayed bluff. Call the flop bet and then lead the turn no matter what hits on the board(like a half pot sized bet).

Any reads on UTG. Does he limp raise with KK? I know a few TAGs who dont limp raise with anything but AA from UTG/EP.

[n1bd]

This has to be the best play. You get to see one cheap card vs. AAA, and you pick up the pot fairly cheaply vs. KK. I would probably bet a bit less than 1/2 pot on the turn, though, since I would expect it to have the same effect. Maybe bet 200-250.

By my math, if UTG has KK exactly twice as often as AAA, the ev of a flop push is +$252 and the ev of a $250 delayed bluff is +$332 (assuming SB check-folds a non-club K on the turn).


Push:
ev_vs_aaa = .292 * 2140 - 870 = -245.12
ev_vs_kk = 500
ev_push = 1/3 * ev_vs_aaa + 2/3 * ev_vs_kk = 251.63

$250 delayed bluff:
ev_vs_aaa = 36/45 * -350 + 9/45 * (35/44 * 2140 - 870) = 86.45
ev_vs_kk = 2/45 * (3/4 * -100 + 1/4 * 35/44 * 2140 - 870) + 43/45 * 500 = 454.69
ev_delayed = 1/3 * ev_vs_aaa + 2/3 * ev_vs_kk = 331.94

[n1bd]

Actually, if he will always check the turn with KK and always bet the turn (big) with AAA, then a better play is probably to check the turn and make a move on the river, since you get the info you need much cheaper. Whether this is better than the delayed bluff on the turn depends on the opponent and how frequently he will try to pick off river bluffs of different sizes with KK. For most opponents, bluffing 200-300 on the river is inferior to bluffing on the turn, since you lose a lot of fold equity when KK knows it's just one bet to get to showdown. If you fire a pot-sized pot on the river after a check-check turn, you will be much more successful; many opponents will fold KK close to 100%, and the river bluff clearly becomes the superior play: a bigger bluff, but less risk since you have so much more information.

This all assumes your opponent doesn't wisen up to what's going on and to the massive amount of information he's leaking by his turn action. If he starts sometimes betting the turn with KK or checking the turn with AAA, then this line gets dicier.

Of course, in both the river and turn delayed bluff lines, your club draw isn't entirely relevant, value-wise. It only comes into play when he has AAA and you hit on the turn, and even then your opponent is drawing quite live, so the lion's share of your profits come from bluffing KK, which you can obviously do with any two.

[thabadguy]

If villain is bad to semi decent...this can only mean a set of aces, i think.

[iceman5]

[ QUOTE ]
If villain is bad to semi decent...this can only mean a set of aces, i think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was about 80% sure he had the aces and 20% KK when I was watching.