Theoretical PLO or PLO8 question

[kirisim]

I was in an online No Limit Omaha 8 game. It was $25 max buyin, .10/.25 blinds. I had gotten lucky and built my stack up to about $80. There were four limpers for the quarter. None of them had more than $15. I held AA95 no suits in the BB. SO I raised to $15, got one caller, and scooped. Is this play going to show a profit? I figured if I only got one caller, I could never be a dog. Is that true?

[ohkanada]

Here is one hand where you are a significant underdog (based on twodimes.net):

5s 9c Ad Ah 0.361
As 2s Ac 3c 0.639

I am sure there are others.

Ken Poklitar

[kirisim]

Okay, besides another AAxx hand, which I ruled out because they all limped.

[Ignatius]

No. Even when excluding the posibility of a better AA hand being out there. See e.g.
<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr>
Omaha8, 2-handed, pot 2, cost 1, preflop, full deck, 1086008 boards
As-Ac-9h-5d: 49.57% 1:1 (EV -0.01) 358611 wins 362379 splits 365018 losses
Ad-Kc-3d-2c: 50.43% 1:1 (EV +0.01) 365018 wins 362379 splits 358611 losses
</pre><hr>
In Omaha high, OTOH, it's indeed true that aces are always a heads-up favorite over a hand w/o aces.

[kirisim]

Okay, but if the opponent does not have AAxx, the best he can have is the hand you mentioned, As2s3dKd, and even then his edge is infinitesimal.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If you're going to get called by one player every time you do this, then you definitely should do so.

However, that is not the problem. The problem is that most of the time, you will not get called at all, and you'll win 4x or 5x the big blind. If you had made a more pot-sized raise, you would probably average a win of much more than 5xBB, including those times you lose.

However, if they're ignorant enough to call the 60xBB raise into a 5xBB pot, then go ahead and keep doing it.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)