I think this is +EV???

[nightlyraver]

I believe this is +EV, but what do you think?

10 players left in a MTT. Players in places 8-10 all have around 9-11BB's. We are all in the money, but 1st-4th is where the real money is. It's folded to Hero in the SB - he's sitting on 11-ish BB's after posting. Blinds are at 250/500 with an ante of 50 and there is lots of pressure on most stacks. Hero looks down at A /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. The BB has called possible steal-raises in the past when he had a big stack, but now he has just under 10BB's and has been making many laydowns recently. Hero has been moving in from time to time, but has shown good hands about every time.

Hero is thinking that Villian will not call for all his stack so close to the final table w/o a real good hand (he has even thrown away small pocket pairs in the same situation). Hero moves all-in...

I'm pretty certain this is a +EV move. True, I lose my whole stack almost every time I'm called, since he probably only calls with a big ace or pretty decent pocket pair, but my stack increases by about 20% w/o a fight every other time. I also usually win if I'm called by a hand like KQ.

Is this +EV in the long run? Good push right before the final table?

[Lloyd]

Easy push for all the reasons you mentioned.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
True, I lose my whole stack almost every time I'm called, since he probably only calls with a big ace or pretty decent pocket pair

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true. You are about a 7-3 dog if dominated. Villain will likely call with 2 face cards, in which case you are ahead.

I push here with any ace, any pair, any 2 cards 10 or higher, and most suited connectors and gappers.

[nightlyraver]

Well, I only say that given my read. I can't say for sure, but I think he's only calling with AA-AT and AA-77 90% of the time - he has really been tightening up since he lost most of his stack and the final table was so close.

Does this make the push better or worse?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I only say that given my read. I can't say for sure, but I think he's only calling with AA-AT and AA-77 90% of the time - he has really been tightening up since he lost most of his stack and the final table was so close.

Does this make the push better or worse?

[/ QUOTE ]

It makes it much better, as there are a lot of hands he dominates you with that he is not going to call with.

He needs a better hand to call than you need to push with, but that range is way too tight and is not good play.

[ekky]

IF he only calls with AA--77 and AK---A10...this makes the all-in even more obligatory. When we get called, we are a 31% chance over this range:

31.1497 % [ 00.29 00.02 ] { As2s }
68.8503 % [ 00.67 00.02 ] { AA-77, AKs-ATs, AKo-ATo }

but more importantly.. you have to figure out all the times you win the pot uncontested

he gets AA 3 ways
KK---77 42 ways (7 * 6 ways)
Aks--A10s 12 ways (4 * 3 ways)
Ako--A10o 48 ways (4 * 12 ways)

(remember you have the As so that negates some ways in which he makes the above hands)

so.. he has 50C2 starting combinations... thats 1225 hands.. and he will only call with 105 of them.. so:

he calls 105/1225 of the time.. which is 9.33% of the time.. and of the other 90.67% of the time you win without risk.

as its 5 handed.. there should be 50*5 + 250 + 500 in the pot.. so you move all in.. and win 1000..90.67% of the time.

(assuming you both have 11 BB's)

when you do get called.. you win 31% * (5500+5500+250) which is 3375.. but seeing as you put in 5500.. thats - 2,125

So the EV of folding is 0, and the EV of going all in is:

.9067 *1000 - .0933*2125 = +708 chips

Therefore.. moving in here gives us a chip EV of 708 chips.. which is over 15% of our stack.

So, to answer your question, the tighter the persons calling ranges.. the MORE profitable it is for you to move in from the SB... and not necessarily with an Ace.