Can I get out of this alive?

[blackaces13]

The table was very loose and this is the first level.

My stack: 985
everyone else in the hand has close to that or has me covered.

Blinds: 5/10

My hand: 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif on the button

PREFLOP: First 3 players limp, next 3 players fold, I call, sb completes, BB checks.

FLOP: 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif (T60) 6 players
Checked to UTG, UTG BETS 70, 1 fold, MP1 calls 70, I call, blinds fold.

*I elected to just call here although an all-in is reasonable because I'd rather keep the pot smaller if I can and bring the hammer down AFTER I make my hand then to risk my tourny with a smaller edge. I know my hand is a monster but I'm a "bird in the hand" guy I guess.

TURN: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif (T270) 3 players
UTG BETS 120, MP1 folds, I RAISE to 300, UTG GOES ALL-IN,

I now have 605 chips left and the pot is 1295.

I call and he shows the nut flush w/ ATs leaving me with 1 out instead of the 2 I figured I'd have if behind.

Is there any way I don't go broke on this hand?

[skierdude1000]

[ QUOTE ]

Is there any way I don't go broke on this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, fold it preflop, pretty simple /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Womble]

Read this on ITH and thought fold preflop too. You may be getting goodish odds but why take risks with tiny bets.

[KingDan]

100 BB, a decent multiway hand, 3 limpers, and the button.

Easy PF call.

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
Read this on ITH and thought fold preflop too. You may be getting goodish odds but why take risks with tiny bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Precisely because they are tiny. I think 78s on the button v. loose players is plenty worth 1/99th of my stack.

PS. Yes, I post on ITH as well and often post my hands on both here and there which makes me feel a bit dirty. I can't figure out why though.

In a cash game, you can play this hand on the button in your loose game and it will make money for you. In tournaments, however, the name of the game is surviving the early madness to finish ITM, then going for the win. Folding preflop here is your best move, you want to minimize the risks you take take early so you can survive.

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
In a cash game, you can play this hand on the button in your loose game and it will make money for you. In tournaments, however, the name of the game is surviving the early madness to finish ITM, then going for the win. Folding preflop here is your best move, you want to minimize the risks you take take early so you can survive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even in cash games you usually wont have much more than 100BBs and neither will all of your opponents as is the case on this hand. Calling for 10 chips is hardly jeopardizing my tournament life (even though I went broke /images/graemlins/blush.gif). You've got to play some hands eventually.

[asherpuppy]

[ QUOTE ]
In a cash game, you can play this hand on the button in your loose game and it will make money for you. In tournaments, however, the name of the game is surviving the early madness to finish ITM, then going for the win. Folding preflop here is your best move, you want to minimize the risks you take take early so you can survive.

[/ QUOTE ]
Early stages of tourneys are very similar to cash games with stacks of huge blind multiples. This is a fine call pre-flop, and there's nothing wrong with the line played either. You could argue for a big raise on the flop, but I doubt ATs would have folded in a loose online SnG. More importantly, I think you win more when you hit and lose less when you don't in the long run when you just call this flop. The overflush is not something you can worry about here. When it happens, you lose.

In my view, this is just one of those times where the poster was doomed.

[jeffraider]

I'm all about pushfolding but calling in a big multiway pot with 76s for 1% of your stack is good poker. Anyone who is saying fold preflop is nuts nuts nuts.

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm all about pushfolding but calling in a big multiway pot with 76s for 1% of your stack is good poker. Anyone who is saying fold preflop is nuts nuts nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually is was 87s. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I agree, the call is a no brainer.

[lastchance]

I might raise on the flop here instead, get value out of my draw. Still, calling here is completely fine, and you played it well.

Getting away from this is just awful, awful poker.

[Uppercut]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there any way I don't go broke on this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold preflop.

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is there any way I don't go broke on this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

No thank you.

[adanthar]

Folding preflop sucks. Period. It's not even very good in an 800 chip 15 blind game, in a 1000/10 it's horrible.

An all in is not reasonable but you should probably raise the flop to maximize FE. Having called, in a low limit game you go broke on the turn 100% of the time.

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding preflop sucks. Period. It's not even very good in an 800 chip 15 blind game, in a 1000/10 it's horrible.

An all in is not reasonable but you should probably raise the flop to maximize FE. Having called, in a low limit game you go broke on the turn 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you.

As for raising the flop to increase folding equity, do I really want people to fold this flop? I have the draw of all draws.

Also, the players at this table, while loose, did show a remarkable willingness to go all in with marginal holdings (I'd already seen a couple of all ins, one called) so I felt that by raising the flop I would likely be knocking people out AND still may be faced with an all in anyway.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
As for raising the flop to increase folding equity, do I really want people to fold this flop? I have the draw of all draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me try to explain it this way:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1121619
pokenum -h 8s 7s - td th - as ts -- 9s 6s 8d
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 9s 6s 8d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 7s 220 24.36 680 75.30 3 0.33 0.245
Td Th 275 30.45 526 58.25 102 11.30 0.360
As Ts 306 33.89 495 54.82 102 11.30 0.395

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1121617
pokenum -h 8s 7s - as ts -- 9s 6s 8d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 6s 8d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 7s 564 56.97 417 42.12 9 0.91 0.574
As Ts 417 42.12 564 56.97 9 0.91 0.426

[curtains]

Calling preflop is fine. However I will raise the flop, and Im willing to get allin on the flop with this hand. It's rare that I'm ready to committ all my chips in a sit and go with a draw when the blinds are so low, however this is one of those times.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there any way I don't go broke on this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fall asleep mid-hand?

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
In a cash game, you can play this hand on the button in your loose game and it will make money for you. In tournaments, however, the name of the game is surviving the early madness to finish ITM, then going for the win. Folding preflop here is your best move, you want to minimize the risks you take take early so you can survive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just threw up here. Stop.

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As for raising the flop to increase folding equity, do I really want people to fold this flop? I have the draw of all draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me try to explain it this way:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1121619
pokenum -h 8s 7s - td th - as ts -- 9s 6s 8d
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 9s 6s 8d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 7s 220 24.36 680 75.30 3 0.33 0.245
Td Th 275 30.45 526 58.25 102 11.30 0.360
As Ts 306 33.89 495 54.82 102 11.30 0.395

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1121617
pokenum -h 8s 7s - as ts -- 9s 6s 8d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 6s 8d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 7s 564 56.97 417 42.12 9 0.91 0.574
As Ts 417 42.12 564 56.97 9 0.91 0.426


[/ QUOTE ]

That's a bit sneaky. Are you including those 2 Ts in the deck in the second scenario?

[asherpuppy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folding preflop sucks. Period. It's not even very good in an 800 chip 15 blind game, in a 1000/10 it's horrible.

An all in is not reasonable but you should probably raise the flop to maximize FE. Having called, in a low limit game you go broke on the turn 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you.

As for raising the flop to increase folding equity, do I really want people to fold this flop? I have the draw of all draws.



[/ QUOTE ]
I hope someone can comment on this, because I don't know if I'm right about this, but I don't think you are interested in FE in this situation, because your FE will come from the hands you don't want to fold. Basically, I think your call is right.
I think the big question is whether a raise could have knocked out the hands he wanted gone, and I think the answer is no. The ATs would not have folded to any raise (so all chips would have been lost anyway), and I doubt most K or Q flush draws would have bet given the situation (note that a K or Q flush draw couldn't also have a pair unless it was pocket given hero's hand). So the most likely hands to be betting here are pairs. I think you want them sticking around. Anyone but a higher flush draw, you want to stick around. You aren't winning unless you hit your hand. When you play 87s, you need to win big when you actually hit your hand to make it a +EV play. I don't think you can profitably play 87s and drive everyone out when you actually hit your dream flop. You need the implied odds. I'd love to hear comments on this from more experienced players.

[adanthar]

Changing the TT to a JJ will make very very little difference (try it.) You can also make it J9, A8, or basically anything else that would stick around in a loose game to one big bet but not a raise and reraise.

Your goal is to isolate one guy and be on the better side of a flip with lots of dead chips, because you gain so much EV by folding out a hand ahead of you that letting him stay in isn't worth it.

Also, you have to reexamine what 'the draw of all draws' means given that you're 60/40 or worse against anything reasonable. You do want AK to fold PF when you hold queens.

[puzzlemoney]

[ QUOTE ]
I might raise on the flop here instead, get value out of my draw. Still, calling here is completely fine, and you played it well.

Getting away from this is just awful, awful poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting away from the hand on the turn is?

Of course, I know what the hand is, so I'm looking for the opponent to have the flush, but the all-in when the K/images/graemlins/spade.gif comes is telling me the villain has it. Especially with six seeing the flop.

In actual play, I find myself spewing off chips by calling because I'm reluctant to believe opponents, but in the cold light of day, I look at this hand and say, "fold and keep your 600 chips."

Is that giving them too much credit for a hand? I just don't see myself being good a third of the time here... I don't actually care much about my (at best) two outs, right?

All that being said, I like raising the flop. Which is contradictory and illustrative of the weakness in my play. "I have a pair and a strong draw--bet! ...Then run in fear from the bigger flush on the turn when I actually make it!"