PDA

View Full Version : Vary Ants


KramerTM
08-02-2005, 04:59 PM
Which causes the most variance at the SnGs?

1. Bad beats
2. Running into big hands on the bubble
3. Bad runs of cards that never gave us a chance
4. Inconsistent play on our part
5. Other

Just curious. I think this post might help put people at ease when they're on a bad run, just being reminded how many factors there are that comprise a bad run.

45suited
08-02-2005, 05:02 PM
yes

KramerTM
08-02-2005, 05:05 PM
[ QUOTE ]
yes

[/ QUOTE ]

While I appreciate the bump... care to elaborate?

tshort
08-02-2005, 05:08 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Which causes the most variance at the SnGs?

[6. Player actually sucks and has previously been getting lucky.]

Recommend: day job.



[/ QUOTE ]

Irieguy
08-02-2005, 05:11 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Which causes the most variance at the SnGs?

1. Bad beats
2. Running into big hands on the bubble
3. Bad runs of cards that never gave us a chance
4. Inconsistent play on our part
5. Other

Just curious. I think this post might help put people at ease when they're on a bad run, just being reminded how many factors there are that comprise a bad run.

[/ QUOTE ]

Variance isn't caused by any of these things. Variance is a statistical inevitability whose boundaries are defined by the payout structure of SNGs.

I tried to explain it: HERE (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=&Number=1479432&page=& view=&sb=5&o=&fpart=)

Irieguy

KramerTM
08-02-2005, 05:12 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Which causes the most variance at the SnGs?

[6. Player actually sucks and has previously been getting lucky.]

Recommend: day job.



[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I should have limited this thread to downswing variance for a good player.

KramerTM
08-02-2005, 05:14 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Which causes the most variance at the SnGs?

1. Bad beats
2. Running into big hands on the bubble
3. Bad runs of cards that never gave us a chance
4. Inconsistent play on our part
5. Other

Just curious. I think this post might help put people at ease when they're on a bad run, just being reminded how many factors there are that comprise a bad run.

[/ QUOTE ]

Variance isn't caused by any of these things. Variance is a statistical inevitability whose boundaries are defined by the payout structure of SNGs.

I tried to explain it: HERE (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=&Number=1479432&page=& view=&sb=5&o=&fpart=)

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but the variance intrinsic in all of the these things comprise, at least in part, your total variance at the SnGs.

tshort
08-02-2005, 05:15 PM
Variance includes up-swings.

mmbt0ne
08-02-2005, 05:16 PM
This isn't going to be a worthwhile thread. All we can establish here is precisely what people should be bitching about.

KramerTM
08-02-2005, 05:23 PM
[ QUOTE ]
This isn't going to be a worthwhile thread. All we can establish here is precisely what people should be bitching about.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK. Feel free to delete.

curtains
08-02-2005, 05:26 PM
Variance is caused by PartyPoker being rigged sometimes.

Slim Pickens
08-02-2005, 05:30 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Which causes the most variance at the SnGs?

[/ QUOTE ]

The payout structure and your finish distribution define the variance, but that's not what I think you're really asking.

Say we have two samples of 100 tournaments each, played by the same player under similar conditions. In one, the player has an ROI of 25%. In the other, he has an ROI of -5%. The difference between the two is most likely caused by winning a different fraction of all-in situations where the player was inside of 63/37 either way. These situiations occur most frequently at level 4 and above, with more than 3 players at the table. Situations where you are either a 63%+ favorite or dog don't occur often enough to make as much of a difference, but those 60/40's and 52/48's come up all the time and sometimes you rarely win your exact fair share over a small sample. I could elaborate with numbers but maybe this makes sense as it is?

SlimP

KramerTM
08-02-2005, 05:35 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Which causes the most variance at the SnGs?

[/ QUOTE ]

The payout structure and your finish distribution define the variance, but that's not what I think you're really asking.

Say we have two samples of 100 tournaments each, played by the same player under similar conditions. In one, the player has an ROI of 25%. In the other, he has an ROI of -5%. The difference between the two is most likely caused by winning a different fraction of all-in situations where the player was inside of 63/37 either way. These situiations occur most frequently at level 4 and above, with more than 3 players at the table. Situations where you are either a 63%+ favorite or dog don't occur often enough to make as much of a difference, but those 60/40's and 52/48's come up all the time and sometimes you rarely win your exact fair share over a small sample. I could elaborate with numbers but maybe this makes sense as it is?

SlimP

[/ QUOTE ]

SlimP,

Thanks for the response. You are right, I suppose I did not mean variance, per se, but closer to what you are describing. While the numbers would be cool, I got a pretty good idea of what you are saying from your post.

Again, just thought this post might be helpul to remind people of all the things besides "I must be playing like crap" that go into a downsing, and not something that would incite a bad-beat-whining post.

Anyway...

Irieguy
08-02-2005, 05:38 PM
[ QUOTE ]


Yes, but the variance intrinsic in all of the these things comprise, at least in part, your total variance at the SnGs.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, not at all. Apparently you didn't read the link. You do not understand variance.

Irieguy

playtitleist
08-02-2005, 07:04 PM
I'm playing like crap.

The Don
08-02-2005, 07:08 PM
1, 2, and 3 cause #4 from my experience. All of these things 'vary'.... whether in our favor or against it. I am not a fan of the 'perfect storm' of 1, 2, and 3 going against me at once though /images/graemlins/smile.gif