ITM small stack dilemna

[Moonsugar]

Ok, so I found myself with a tiny stack once we got ITM. Good news is there was a tinier stack. Following hand comes up. Bigstack has been playing fairly tight through the game and on bubble but I thought that he would raise here with a large # of hands getting 5:3 v. my likely fold.

What do you guys think of my raise? If you don't like raise do you like calling instead? If you like it or don't like it what is minimum type hand you would raise here?

400/800 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 14478545) - Tue Aug 02 12:48:03 EDT 2005
Table Table 12327 (Real Money) -- Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 2: Skooma (1255)
Seat 4: HERITAGEM (335)
Seat 8: bjrainman (8410)
Skooma posts small blind (200)
HERITAGEM posts big blind (335)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Skooma [ 8h, Kh ]
bjrainman raises (800) to 800
Skooma raises (1055) to 1255
Skooma is all-In.
bjrainman calls (455)
Creating Main Pot with $1005 with HERITAGEM
Creating Side Pot 1 with $1840 with Skooma

[schwza]

i'd probably fold up until KJs. pretty close though.

[Lady Dont Tekno]

It's not a bad play, and I'd do it instantly w/ K9s. You're going to have to get lucky at least one time vs. the big stack so might as well go for it now with great odds and putting 2 hands against the shortie's random 2.

LDT

[johnnybeef]

i hate it. your risk is busting in 3rd if the short stack wins the pot which i think a good estimate would be 20% of the time. your reward would be getting a stack of ~2800 which i estimate would happen 33% of the time. clearly the risk outweighs the reward here. i am all about playing for first itm, but this move will bust you more times then it will win you the tournament as you are still facing an uphill battle heads up.

[11t]

I'd fold preflop.

[Moonsugar]

Ok, so I ran some ICM calculations and solved for how good my hand needs to be here. Basically I need like 67% equity and there are only 2 hands which give me at least that, KK and AA.

It was suprising to me that I needed to be that high (obviously since I made the raise). Also, it was suprising just how bad my raise was: it basically costs 4-5% of the prize pool, which is huge.

[me1tdown]

[ QUOTE ]
i hate it. your risk is busting in 3rd if the short stack wins the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Small stack is all-in, big stack has made a move and is not going to fold to your all-in, so why let it get all ugly? I have to think that the best poker move is to watch the play and hear the "beep, beep, beep" sound of you backing into second place.

[Ixnert]

I think bigstack is on virtually a random hand, and BB obviously is. Given that, this is just a math problem.

You fold:
50% of the time bigstack wins; you have 1255 chips, EV of 32.51% of the pool. 50% of the time BB wins; stacks: 8075/1255/670, EV of 29.12% of the pool. Total EV(folding) = 30.82% of the prize pool.

You push:

1) Bigstack wins: You and BB both eliminated, you win second place = 30% of the prize pool.
2) You win: BB eliminated, you have 2845 chips; EV = 35.69% of the prize pool.
3) BB wins, bigstack second: you are eliminated in third = 20% of the prize pool.
4) BB wins, you second: stacks 7095/1840/1065, EV = 30.23% of the prize pool.

Since their percentages are so close to EV(folding), (1) and (4) aren't going to affect the decision much. Disregarding those, you need to win the hand roughly twice as often as you finish in third.

If x is your probability against a random hand (0<x<1), you finish in first x^2 of the time, and in last (1-x)^2 of the time.

x^2 = 2 * ((1-x)^2)
x^2 = 2x^2 - 4x + 2
0 = x^2 - 4x + 2

x = 0.586

So you need a hand that's a 58.6% favorite (actually slightly better, since both of the factors we ignored argue slightly for folding) against one random hand to call this.

As it happens, K8s is real close (58.3%), but I'd probably fold based on the bigstack not *really* raising with any two (maybe top 90%) and the previously mentioned fudge factors.

A cutoff of 60% would suggest KTs+, KJ+, A7s+, A9+, QJs, and any pair above about fives. I'd probably personally go a bit higher than that, but it's somewhere in that range, I'd think.

(By the time I've finished this, I'm sure four other people will have come up with better answers, but I'm going to be self-indulgent and post anyway, it was good for my own benefit to work out the answer...)

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so I ran some ICM calculations and solved for how good my hand needs to be here. Basically I need like 67% equity and there are only 2 hands which give me at least that, KK and AA.

It was suprising to me that I needed to be that high (obviously since I made the raise). Also, it was suprising just how bad my raise was: it basically costs 4-5% of the prize pool, which is huge.

[/ QUOTE ]

i am 100% sure your math is wrong. there's no way QQ is a fold here.

i'm guessing you didn't take into account the fact that you can lose the main and win the side. i don't know of any program that lets you figure odds on that happening though /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Moonsugar]

Opps, yes you are right. I only looked at 1 player scooping all pots.

[Moonsugar]

In EV(folding) you didnt take out my SB (200) if I fold. Nor did you give to BB if he wins.

Also, the probability of outcomes 1,2,3,4 occuring are not equally weighted. Not sure how much of an effect that has on the answer.

[curtains]

I suspect folding is correct. Especially since the button won't be that loose most of the time because the BB is allin preflop.

[Ixnert]

Doh, somehow thought you were on the button, and somehow that didn't make me wonder why the bigstack was acting before you.