poker is all luck

[spaminator101]

that is exactly what all my friends keep telling me and its driving me crazy
if there are any serious ideas on how to convert them please post a message or send me a pm

Why convert them? Let them keep thinking that while you clean them out.

[spaminator101]

im underaged and at a private school its kinda hard to get to many of them to play for money

Lower the stakes - play them for quarters or anything - just get them to sit down at a table with you.

[spaminator101]

thanks ill try it

Of course, you know what is gonna happen, right?

All night you are gonna get busted by crap, further reinforcing their views.

[spaminator101]

yeh i no but i will still win
but then they will think im lucky but it will be ok because im taking their money

[IIAce]

Didn't know you had another thread here so below is just a copy/paste of the reply I just posted in the general section. BTW, in a private school with guys who don't even wanna play in the first place, I wouldn't give this example.

Let's say we have a basket with 3 balls in it. 2 black balls and 1 white one. You pick a ball randomly and every time you pick a black ball you pay me one dollar, every time you pick the white ball I pay you 5 dollars. On average, you will pick the white ball once every 3 picks so you will lose 2 and win 5 or you will win 3 dollars. Notice that this is a bad game to play if you only have 1 dollar to play with since there is more chance you will lose that dollar. Poker is the same except it has 52 balls instead of 3 and a juussssst a little more complicated. If you're getting paid off you play, if you're not getting paid off you let go.

BTW, if you want to convince a friend who plays with you that poker is not luck don't give them this example since it may make them think that they know nothing about the game and they could just quit. AKA, don't scare the fish.

[KenProspero]

ummmmmmmm find new friends.

For those who understand, no explanation is necessary.

For those who don't, no explanation is possible.

(not very original but effective, borrowed from an old saying common among Harley Davidson enthusiasts)

Well, one way to explain would be to point out players like Johnny Chan winning the World Series two years in a row and coming in second the next. Or point out Phil Ivey and Ted Forrest winning three bracelets in a year. Explain that it would be impossible for these things if poker were pure luck. Or just take all their money in a game. That would work too.

[pzhon]

I tell my family that poker is like a game of chess for $1 followed by a coin-toss for $10. Whether I win or lose in a night is determined by the coin-toss, but at the end of the year, what matters most is how well I have been playing in the chess games.

[ QUOTE ]
Well, one way to explain would be to point out players like Johnny Chan winning the World Series two years in a row and coming in second the next. Or point out Phil Ivey and Ted Forrest winning three bracelets in a year. Explain that it would be impossible for these things if poker were pure luck. Or just take all their money in a game. That would work too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, but just as easily their best hand could have been sucked out on at the end and they could have gotten zero bracelets.

In the end luck will be pushed aside, for the most part.

[spaminator101]

hum ill try this

[olavfo]

[ QUOTE ]
I tell my family that poker is like a game of chess for $1 followed by a coin-toss for $10.

[/ QUOTE ]
Excellent analogy.

[ZenMusician]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red">yeh i no</font> but <font color="red">i </font>will still win

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly private schools are better than public ones...

-ZEN

[IIAce]

Hmmmm if you win every game of chess but lose every coin toss, you will end up losing in the long term right? Am I missing something?

[spaminator101]

well yeh but how likely is it that he will win every coin toss

[Rotterdaum]

[ QUOTE ]
I tell my family that poker is like a game of chess for $1 followed by a coin-toss for $10. Whether I win or lose in a night is determined by the coin-toss, but at the end of the year, what matters most is how well I have been playing in the chess games.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's deep, man!

[DRKEVDC]

In the book Millionaire Next Door, they asked these millionaires how much luck had to do with them being rich and they replied, "None".

[sully4321]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red">yeh i no</font> but <font color="red">i </font>will still win

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly private schools are better than public ones...

-ZEN

[/ QUOTE ]

what a douchebag... he corrects grammar that obviously wasn't intended to be perfect...

the guy does it making sure all of his grammar is perfect, by the way

what a fagg

[Rotterdaum]

Why would they reply that there was in fact enough luck involved, thus undermining their own accomplishment?

[ThinkQuick]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmmm if you win every game of chess but lose every coin toss, you will end up losing in the long term right? Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you're missing something. It is a coin toss so by definition you will break even in the long run on it.
Therefore, as the poster says, it comes down to the game of chess.

[Huckle]

Should be pretty easy. Tell them you will play them 10,000 hands, if you win, you get all their money. Then they can see if they really trust in their "it's all luck" or if they have second thoughts and think they will lose because you are better.

Of course, this requires that you are better than them and can win consistently. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

If you are any good, make a bet that its not luck and that you can beat them (x out x times).

YOur an idiot Zen. Dont be a hater.

[ QUOTE ]
Well, one way to explain would be to point out players like Johnny Chan winning the World Series two years in a row and coming in second the next. Or point out Phil Ivey and Ted Forrest winning three bracelets in a year. Explain that it would be impossible for these things if poker were pure luck. Or just take all their money in a game. That would work too.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Why do you think the same 5 guys make it to the final table of the World Series of Poker every year? What are they - the luckiest guys in Vegas?"

Just had to get that in there. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

if poker is luck, ask them why Johnny Chan won the WSOP back to back, then came in 2nd??? Think his luck is always better than 350 field?
cdl

[ThinkQuick]

rposeagles:
[ QUOTE ]
Well, one way to explain would be to point out players like Johnny Chan winning the World Series two years in a row and coming in second the next....

[/ QUOTE ]

cdlarmore:
[ QUOTE ]

if poker is luck, ask them why Johnny Chan won the WSOP back to back, then came in 2nd??? Think his luck is always better than 350 field?
cdl


[/ QUOTE ]

Now it's a doubly good example

[ImCrazy]

I just read this in another post and I think it is a great way to describe why strategy is valid in this game of ours...



-------------------------------------------------------
I was helping a new player out with a series of small
stakes NL hands and had noticed overall that he was
playing too passively. I explained to the best of my
abilities why raising or folding is in general
superior to calling, then he said this, which I
thought was very profound:


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ok, I think i get it. In holdem everyone gets the same
hands long term and against any other player at the
table they'll be better about half the time and worse
the other half. When i have a better hand, i want to
play a bigger pot, so i should raise, and when i have
a worse hand, i don't want to pay him off, so i should
fold. If i make bigger pots when I'm ahead, i take his
money long term. Calling just doesn't make sense if
you think about it.

[spaminator101]

i was just wondering how long it taught him to get this because im trying to help someone right now and they arent getting it at all

[wadea]

one pretty standard reply is to tell them that you're glad it's all luck, because you're the luckiest guy you know. play the idiot and don't scare the fish.
-w.a.

[Rotterdaum]

It's a good concept, but what about times when you are not sure whether you are ahead or not? You are already involved in the pot, and you would like to take it, but you don't want to lose a large amount on it, because that seems very likely as well. Let alone slowplaying

[lillumultipass]

"poker is like a game of chess for $1 followed by a coin-toss for $10. Whether I win or lose in a night is determined by the coin-toss, but at the end of the year, what matters most is how well I have been playing in the chess games"

This one made my day! No, really...as a chessplayer, I really like this analogy! I guess I will have to try this one now /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[chaz64]

[ QUOTE ]
I tell my family that poker is like a game of chess for $1 followed by a coin-toss for $10. Whether I win or lose in a night is determined by the coin-toss, but at the end of the year, what matters most is how well I have been playing in the chess games.

[/ QUOTE ]


Great analogy! I also like the following quote:

"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."

It's going to sound very cliche... but have them watch the scene in Rounders where he explains to his girlfriend why poker is a skill game.