View Full Version : Huge downswing in the 11s
Ive had 1 ITM finish in the last 17 tournaments, and that was only a 3rd. Everytime I exit its to some sort of horrible twisted beat and I just dont know what to do. I know variance is a part of poker but before this streak I had a good 30% ROI in ~600 tourneys. I can see that for some of the higher buy ins you might get a streak like this, but the 11s are full of donks. Is this natural variance or should I consider pulling my money out of the site and going elsewhere?
Some of the crap im having to put up with, this is how Ive busted out of my last 3 tourneys (the KK vs 96s and QT hand were in the same tourney):
KK on a flop of J88 - turn 9, river 9 and I lose to 96s (yes I raised pre flop by 6BB and bet the pot on the turn)
KK raises, I re raise with AA, SB flat calls. Original raiser pushs and I call all in.. SB calls all in also and wins when his A8s flushs.
AA raises to 8BB. Called by T8s and Q5s. All in on 8 high flop and the turn is a T.
QT limp when 4 handed. Flop is Q42. I push and get called by 34s who gets a runner runner flush
ChoicestHops
08-02-2005, 01:12 PM
It happens to everyone. Learn how to adjust your play vs donks. Reads are verything. A 17 buy-in downswing is not huge.
lorinda
08-02-2005, 01:15 PM
Nubje: Bad beat posts remaining: 0/1
Lori
me1tdown
08-02-2005, 01:16 PM
If your decisions are good and the beats are bad then there' nothing to do but stay on target. Remember it well when you are on a rush and sucking out at will.
Normal variance.
Blaming a "rigged" site is just an excuse.
EnderFFX
08-02-2005, 01:19 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I know variance is a part of poker but before this streak I had a good 30% ROI in ~600 tourneys...or should I consider pulling my money out of the site and going elsewhere?
[/ QUOTE ]
You know variance is part of the game, and you've had an amazing run, and hit a little bit of a downswing so now you assume the site is cheating you and you are going to go play elsewhere?
You sound like a donk... you took some bad beats, deal with it, it's not the sites fault, its variance. Oh and btw, your 30% ROI is a BS number if you don't include all of your downswings, badbeats, and bad runs.
I have an ROI of 200% but i don't count the times, i finish out of the money....
ldavidjm
08-02-2005, 01:27 PM
I don't think you're going to get much sympathy here. Most everyone here has experianced this, and many people much worse than what you did. Read up, take a break, and get back to it.
Dr_Jeckyl_00
08-02-2005, 01:29 PM
review your hand histories. your bad beats are normal and only a small part of your problem. I guarantee you have made bad decisions in your play.
I lost w/ KK last week, but after reviewing the game I determined that a bad call I made earlier in the game, which crippled me, led to 2 people calling my t300 pf push. If I had more chips (by not making a bad decision earlier) I doubt that they would have call my t800+ push.
jeffraider
08-02-2005, 01:41 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I raised pre flop by 6BB
AA raises to 8BB.
QT limp when 4 handed
[/ QUOTE ]
Those moves are all poop, even without seeing the HHs.
Maybe it's not variance?
dude, in a bout three weeks your going to be flaming the n00bs like we're flaming you now. Sh!t happens, and we've already figured that out, so there's no need to inform us.
And a 30% ROI after 600 games sounds a little fishy, anybody who can achieve something like this wouldve moved to the 22s by now /images/graemlins/cool.gif
GL and welcome to the forums /images/graemlins/grin.gif
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know variance is a part of poker but before this streak I had a good 30% ROI in ~600 tourneys...or should I consider pulling my money out of the site and going elsewhere?
[/ QUOTE ]
You know variance is part of the game, and you've had an amazing run, and hit a little bit of a downswing so now you assume the site is cheating you and you are going to go play elsewhere?
You sound like a donk... you took some bad beats, deal with it, it's not the sites fault, its variance. Oh and btw, your 30% ROI is a BS number if you don't include all of your downswings, badbeats, and bad runs.
I have an ROI of 200% but i don't count the times, i finish out of the money....
[/ QUOTE ]
I made it quite clear that the 30% figure was before the current downswing. I was not trying to inflate my winrate in any way, I merely mentioned it to stop replys along the lines of 'maybe your not a winning player' and I thought it would be a lot more difficult for a 30% ROI player to experience a 30 buy in d/s than a 5% ROI player.
Secondly, I never accused the site of being rigged. Ive defended online poker many a time to my friends and believe it is all above board. However, I also know quite a few people who when they are running bad on say, stars will just switch to PP. They dont believe its rigged either but a change is sometimes good.
I thought the downswing was a tad excessive given the average level of opponent at the 11s and the fact that I believe I am way good enough to beat the game. All I wanted was someone to say that they had suffered worse, or to keep going. So thanks to those that did that.
[ QUOTE ]
dude, in a bout three weeks your going to be flaming the n00bs like we're flaming you now. Sh!t happens, and we've already figured that out, so there's no need to inform us.
And a 30% ROI after 600 games sounds a little fishy, anybody who can achieve something like this wouldve moved to the 22s by now /images/graemlins/cool.gif
GL and welcome to the forums /images/graemlins/grin.gif
[/ QUOTE ]
Ive read multiple posts saying why havent you moved up yet to people with similar stats at the 11s. Frankly, I dont care. Im happy making a small amount at an easy game and I dont want to get into the whole moving up and up and up. Poker for me will always be something I do in the evenings and make a bit of money out of.
EnderFFX
08-02-2005, 01:51 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know variance is a part of poker but before this streak I had a good 30% ROI in ~600 tourneys...or should I consider pulling my money out of the site and going elsewhere?
[/ QUOTE ]
I'm glad you aren't a donk. The comment "should I consider pulling my money out of the site and going elsewhere?" sounded like (not just to me but to almost everyone that you were blaming the site for your bad run. Anyone who has played over 1,000 SnG has suffered worse then what you have.
I hope your luck changes, keep your attitude positive, and look over your mistakes.
You know variance is part of the game, and you've had an amazing run, and hit a little bit of a downswing so now you assume the site is cheating you and you are going to go play elsewhere?
You sound like a donk... you took some bad beats, deal with it, it's not the sites fault, its variance. Oh and btw, your 30% ROI is a BS number if you don't include all of your downswings, badbeats, and bad runs.
I have an ROI of 200% but i don't count the times, i finish out of the money....
[/ QUOTE ]
I made it quite clear that the 30% figure was before the current downswing. I was not trying to inflate my winrate in any way, I merely mentioned it to stop replys along the lines of 'maybe your not a winning player' and I thought it would be a lot more difficult for a 30% ROI player to experience a 30 buy in d/s than a 5% ROI player.
Secondly, I never accused the site of being rigged. Ive defended online poker many a time to my friends and believe it is all above board. However, I also know quite a few people who when they are running bad on say, stars will just switch to PP. They dont believe its rigged either but a change is sometimes good.
I thought the downswing was a tad excessive given the average level of opponent at the 11s and the fact that I believe I am way good enough to beat the game. All I wanted was someone to say that they had suffered worse, or to keep going. So thanks to those that did that.
[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I raised pre flop by 6BB
AA raises to 8BB.
QT limp when 4 handed
[/ QUOTE ]
Those moves are all poop, even without seeing the HHs.
Maybe it's not variance?
[/ QUOTE ]
QT limp I will agree with you. However at blinds 7/15 and stacks of 1000 would you seriously suggest raising only to 45 or 60 with AA? That would net me 5-6 callers most likely. Raising to 90 usually gets me 2. If you think this is wrong then can you please elaborate.
jeffraider
08-02-2005, 01:53 PM
Level 1 blinds of 10/15, I think there's nothing too wrong with a 5xBB raise, but I think 8 is pushing it. You just won't get enough calls in the long run with those size raises, even at the $11s.
[ QUOTE ]
Level 1 blinds of 10/15, I think there's nothing too wrong with a 5xBB raise, but I think 8 is pushing it. You just won't get enough calls in the long run with those size raises, even at the $11s.
[/ QUOTE ]
On the site I play the blinds are 7/15 and you start with a 1000 stack. This is from memory as I dont have poker tracker but raising to 90 is my standard move and Iv only once in this ds not gotten a caller. Usually its 2 callers with a raise like that.
gildwulf
08-02-2005, 02:03 PM
Nubje,
Forget about the beats...it happens to everyone. Take a break for a few days, go do whatever you do for fun that's not poker, then come back to 2+2 with an open mind and start posting hands.
Welcome to the forum.
Unlucky mate,
I've had this run, but decided not to post anything about it, as this is the exact response I know i'd get, and I'd achieve nothing out of it. Most of the time i get my chips in, it is the right move and its usually a coin flip at worse, which you are bound to lose 10+ in a row....
17 games with 1 place? not massive downswing, i had 5 places out of 35, which is similarly awful......
It may be worth to ask yourself a few questions,
Are you tilting? - you may find you begin playing a bit fast and lose your disclipine in an attempt to get out of this downswing and making decisions you usually wouldn't, or it could be the other way, were you are being too careful in later stages and not wanting to risk going out with steal per say, and thus being blinded out for 4th.......
From what i've read, you've made roughly $2,000 from the 600 games, and in this downswing, you've lost roughly $150? A small %, of what has been a fantastic run, $1850 over 620 games is still great =/ and I wouldn't be worried...
Some of your plays are slightly dodgy, but nothing too awful, and you seem to have done well over the relatively small sample of 600 games.... Keep going and plug on, with the same mindset as when you were winning, and it will turn, the fish maybe getting lucky and taking your money of you for a few games, but you'll get it all back with interest when it turns....
Cheers and good luck
Ben
barry111
08-02-2005, 02:43 PM
^^^^^ fixed your title....
anyway what site do you play at that starts out with at blinds @ 7/15?
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